President Hugo Chavez Frias is in trouble. The stunning results of Sunday's National Assembly Elections shined a light on a country that has subtly shifted under Mr. Chavez's feet. Only eighteen months ago, President Chavez won a referendum on indefinite re-election by a wide, ten point margin upon a platform of radical socialism.
However problems with inflation, electricity and power shortages, and street violence have caused times to change. Consequently, President Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution has come increasingly under scrutiny by the electorate. In response, yesterday's National Assembly Election, with 66% voter turnout, saw the opposition's Table for Democratic Unity (MUD) gain 61 seats (with several more still being counted), a number that would have been significantly higher were it not for the 2009 reform of the electoral law.
These gains put the MUD above the 1/3 necessary to impede a more radicalized agenda through the passing of Organic laws (sweeping reforms), constitutional changes and the calling of constituent assemblies. It also affects Chavez's ability to appoint judges to the Supreme Court of Justice.
Yet this election's greatest impact might be that it undermines President Chavez's ability to use the country's windfall oil profits at will. Using previous legislation and the complicity of a pro-Chavez National Assembly, over the last five years Chavez has transferred approximately 25% of oil royalties directly to a discretionary account in the Presidential palace. This has allowed him to fund his far-reaching political project, dubbed "21st Century Socialism", which provides subsidies to the poor and underwrites social initiatives. Chavez has also used the funding to advance his agenda throughout the region via the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) and prop up countries such as Cuba and Nicaragua - who are both in the midst of a deep financial crisis.
For President Chavez, the news only gets worse. Despite retaining slightly more than 60% of the National Assembly the Chavistas actually obtained only 48% of the popular vote, leaving the opposition MUD with 52%. This in an election that featured a radicalized Chavez at center stage, with both sides billing it as a referendum on his presidency and the Bolivarian Revolution. Yet despite voter manipulation, abuse of state resources, and the not-insignificant persona of the President on campaign, Chavez now represents a minority population in his own country. If this election was seen as a trial run for the 2012 Presidential elections -- the next national level elections -- Chavez has reason to be worried.
Mr. Chavez now has some difficult choices to make. He could attempt to soften his often bombastic rhetoric and rebuild his shattered relationship with what is now more than 50% of the country. This would require him to postpone or cancel his plans, most notably the rapid advance of 21st Century Socialism. This has not been something for which President Chavez has had significant appetite in the past. Conversely, he could radicalize, seeking to promulgate conflict within the National Assembly and thereby push through a radical agenda with only a simple majority, despite the very vocal opposition of the MUD. This would be hard to do, and would be on the margins of democratic legality. Finally, he could adopt openly extra-democratic means, such as excluding the opposition outright from the deliberations -- as happened in Bolivia in the past.
Now more than ever, the opposition cannot afford to rest. The MUD's members must now learn how to turn anti-government rhetoric into an effective parliamentary debate. This will include cooperation on projects that could prove less than palatable to their constituencies. And in a country where voter confidence in the elected assembly is very low, they must demonstrate their ability to govern "for the people", something which, for the Chavistas, has proved increasingly difficult.
For a U.S. administration keen to avoid conflict with Hugo Chavez, the opposition's victory is a blessing, because it provides the opportunity to applaud a successful electoral result and reinforce its support for peaceful, democratic resolution of conflict within Venezuela. It also provides the United States with some desperately needed "friendly faces" within Venezuela's government, which will improve the ability of the US to increase dialogue and perhaps coordination on issues of mutual interest.
In the near-term, however, Hugo Chavez will still guide Venezuela's direction. Addressing his constituency last night through his twitter account, he said, "my dear compatriots, it has been a great day and we have obtained a solid victory. Sufficient to continue to deepen Democratic, Bolivarian Socialism. We should continue to reinforce the revolution." Only time will show what this means.
I agree, the president has to work on his popularity with the more than 50% that don't see eye to eye with him now. However, if his "21st Century Socialism" is projected to gain popularity among the mases during implementation, then he'd be wiser to continue with it in a more aggressive way.
In modern politics, the people's opinion really do matter.
Chavez hasn't so much taken an axe to Venezuela's democratic institutions as a whittling knife. It's the old "how to boil a frog" routine.
President Hugo Chavez and his Revoluccion Bolivariana will do just fine. I think the opposition's improved results in these elections will actual help Mr. Chavez down the road when it comes time for the opposition to actually put forth the knots and bolts of the alternative policies and programs they keep talking about. Remember, the devil is always in the detail. When poor campeanos and trabajadores of Venezuela realize that the opposition's agenda is still in lockstep with the rich's and elites' agenda and against the poor, workers and unions, the next general (presidential) elections will be stratospherically in favor of El Presidente and his party.
Like in every human enterprise, there are always bumps on the road, but "El Chavismo" is on the right track and marching forward.
This leaves Chavez free to take the blame for the disastrous effects of his Marxist religion (even Castro is changing THAT) without being able to convincingly blame Yankee interference. And the opposition, deprived of the US Marines as a rescue force, will have to develop a program that might have a chance of meeting the needs of the nation's long-deprived poor.
The MUD appears to be in an identical position to US Republicans right now. Despite being severely in the minority, they have just enough poilitcal power to grind the wheels of progress to a halt.
Just a thought... I bet that Hugo Chavez with two legislators in his favor, could get more done than Obama-Clinton and the entire democratic majorities in congress!! The axis of Obama-Clinton-and the Democratic Leadership Council with huge majorities couldn't get anything of substance passed...With potential losses of one and perhaps both houses, Expect the axis of weakness to welt as soon as the Republicans say: "Boo."
Regading Chavez what he will do is to take as much advantage of the current parliament to pas as many radical laws as he can before the new parliament comes in. He already said that he would do exactly that, Then he will create parallel institutions and declare them legitimate. Wait for the creation of something with a bombastic name such as Comiitte for the Peoples of Venzuela with True Democratic Principles that will be in charge of overseen the parliament and pass any law that he can't pass without the 2/3 votes required in the parliament. They have used this tactic already whenever an elected body such as a labor ubnion or local govement is not associated with the Chavistas.
A leopard doesn't change his spots.
The only thing I think that's going to rein him in a little is new evidence soon to be found in Colombia's recently successful FARC bombing. There are some more hot potatoes sitting in Chavez's lap regarding those hard drives, and he knows it.
By any and all standards...
Yes.
That's where the rubber meets the road. I'll be watching anxiously to see what, if anything, this coalition will offer to the debate. It's been hard to tell so far. It seems their only point of agreement is opposition to Chavez. It's a lot like the Republicans in the States; no real agenda other than opposition to Obama. However, I don't see Venezuelans applauding a parliament if it's only accomplishment is to shut down the government.
But I'll be watching anxiously. If they can be effective in actually creating a debate, it will be a great thing for Venezuela.
First off, yes, more people voted for parties other than PSUV than for it, but then again, even more people voted for parties other than MUD than voted for it. American's may find that confusing, but Canadians have had over half a century of that sort of thing (as have Brits).
And it appears that about a third of Venezuelans didn't see enough of a reason to pick between PSUV and MUD, or were confident that PSUV would win in enough districts to maintain majority status to not feel the need to come out and vote.
Add in that now MUD will actually have to spend at least some of its time fleshing out an alternative position to PSUV and Chavez (Parliamentary debates can be a little more troubling than the campaign trail, because both sides get to hammer each other with the hard questions again and again, so when one side says 'we'd build more infrastructure' the other gets to ask what they'd stop the government from investing in to do it) and MUD will now face a problem because what they will have to stop just talking in generalities that are popular to both Venezuelans and the US right wing, they will have to start putting in the details where what is popular to one won't be popular to the other.
But the one thing these results will do is make it a lot harder for the Chavez-bashers to sell the idea that he is a 'dictator for life', or that the CNE rigs elections for him. (They will keep selling it as hard as they can, and the inertia of peoples perceptions having been influenced by the years of them screaming it it their ears will give them traction for some time to come, but ironically, the effort to continue to force that label on him will undermine the success the campaign to stick that label on him has had)
And such tyrannical actions don't make him a dictator to you?
Wow.
"Flee from a country in which only one exercises all the powers: it is a country of slaves". (Speech in Convento de los Franciscanos, 1.2.1814)
"Although war is the summary of all evils, tyranny is the summary of all the wars". (Proclamation in Cundinamarca, 1.17.1814)
"There is nothing more dangerous than allowing the same citizen to be in power for too long. The people get used to obey him, he gets used to command them and this originates encroachment and tyranny". (Speech in Angostura, 2.15.1819)
"If a man was necessary to sustain a state, such state should not exist, and at the end would not exist". (Message to the Congress of Colombia, 1.20.1830)