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Joel Rubin

Joel Rubin

Posted: February 1, 2010 02:46 PM

Herzliya Dispatch: The Two-State Solution Is Coming, Whether You Like It or Not

What's Your Reaction:

If there was one consistent theme that dominated the Herzliya conference today, it was the argument, made time and again by Israeli political and military leaders to a largely cautious audience, that a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in Israel's interest.

"Israel must be part of the pragmatic camp" in the Middle East said leader of the opposition Tzipi Livni.

"We have to have a real plan to implement the two state solution" said former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz.

"80% of Israelis support a two state solution..." and "...we must implement both a bottoms-up and top-down approach (to the conflict) now" said Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor.

Not surprisingly, these strong pronouncements did not inspire the crowd to jump to its feet.

Of course, there is much more on the agenda here, as Israel's top political-military leaders, thinkers, strategists, and officials networked with a diverse set of American, European, Asian, and Arab leaders. Discussions about the global economy, climate change, Israel's public image, and the waning influence of the U.S. dominated. Permeating through almost every discussion was the backdrop of the looming danger posed by Iran, creating a sense of seriousness and concern.

And everyone made sure to make nice about the Obama administration.

The most powerful speaker, for my money, was Tzipi Livni. She delivered a forceful keynote early in the morning, barely looking at her notes and armed with a honed, strategic analysis. Critical of the current Israeli government, yet mindful of the need to be diplomatic, she demonstrated big league skills.

Dan Meridor too looked like a calm, reasonable voice. Sober and intelligent, he spoke of the broader strategic challenges, even bluntly stating that Israel made a mistake by not making more of an effort with Syria.

And the Americans showed their best, with Dan Kurtzer and Elliott Abrams engaging in a vigorous debate about the peace process. Abrams argued that the only year in the last 20 that didn't have Israeli-Palestinian negotiations was the past one, implying that Obama has failed at peacemaking and that seeking a political deal for a state was the wrong approach. He also argued that the Palestinians should focus instead on creating the trappings of a state now, and wait for a political deal for an actual state later. Kurtzer countered that yes, 20 years of negotiations had failed to produce a state, either on the ground or at the political level, but instead spoke about how it was time to be more aggressive, not less. He also reminded the audience that Abrams' recommendation of a bottoms-up only approach had been tried many times before, producing neither an improvement on the ground nor an actual state.

Interestingly, an early morning panel with Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations Executive Vice Chairman Malcolm Hoenlein, American Ambassador to Israel Jim Cunningham, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, and former U.S. Ambassador Alfred Moses entitled "Still Special: US-Israel Relations?" was nearly unanimous in its declarations that the relationship has never been better. Of course, it only took a few questions to notice that several of the panelists had real concerns, but they were all at great pains to show that relations are in top shape, handing a symbolic victory to President Obama after a tough year.

So overall, the strategic clarity expressed by the Israelis about the need for a Palestinian state -- none of whom declared this for sentimental reasons -- was striking. Approaches on how to get there differed widely. The rationale was often based on cold calculation related to consolidating relations with the Arabs against Iran. No one seemed particularly optimistic about the prospects of this goal even being achieved. But it was clear that this was a message that met the audience head-on, knocking them off balance.

There may not yet either be peace, or even a clear way to get there, but this day may well have granted Obama a subtle victory, as the broad political recognition in Israel of the importance of a two-state solution was made urgently clear.

I can't wait to hear Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak discuss this issue together tomorrow night.

 

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Tony Andrews
Ὁ βίος βραχύς, ἡ δὲ τέχν
10:45 PM on 02/02/2010
I suspect the quiet hand of diplomacy from foreigners at work.

I suspect that many of the delegates have had foreigners whispering in their ears "Sort this out or there WILL be consequences, We are cheesed off, and, though we have done nothing in the past, if YOU do not sort this mess out, and sort it out NOW, believe me, WE will, and very soon".

I suspect that they have had not just one foreigner, but several, uttering the same whispers.

I suspect that the international community might, just, be so fed up with it all that it has chosen to ally and speak with the same message.

I also suspect that (despite the bravura from posters here) the state of Israel realises it needs the support of that community (I heard, for example, that 2/3rds of its exported farm produce ends up in the UK).

In many ways I feel sorry for Israel. Despite my criticisms of it (which are many) I fully endorse its right to exist as a state,

It has dug itself a whacking great big hole in which it has found itself having to try to find a way to dig out, and no-one forced it to do that.



And YES, I do recognise that the Palestinians have a lot to answer for.
01:19 PM on 02/02/2010
Zionism was an idea born out of 19th century drive to national self-determination
This led to creation of many nation-states through the world. Including: Israel, India, Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Czechoslovakia, Germany etc.
Many above states were formed from the remains of British, Russian, Ottoman and French Empires.
Along with many European, Asian, African and American nations, a Jewish state was created by the immigrants to the Ottoman and British Empires.
There was much chaos and population movement along ethnic and religious lines.
Unfortunately, part of Palestine was given to Hashemite kings by the British.
On the other part, the residents were to be given an opportunity for self determination--U./N. Partition plan.
The Jewish Palestinians immediately accepted
Arab Palestinians rejected self-determination and chose the way of the conquest with help of other co-religionist neighbors.
And thus ended up the losers in empire- dividing game.
It was easy to from a state in the post WW2 chaos. Later, as the states in the area coalesced and matured, the opportunities have dwindled.
What Palestinians could've had for the asking in 40s- 70s is not as easy now.
Fair or unfair, Palestinians now MUST prove to their neighbors their peaceful intentions and ability to co exist before they are given the privilege to form their own state by their neighbors-- realpolitik.
02:04 PM on 02/02/2010
Eh, the arab nations weren't really the product of specific nationalism, just arab nationalism; more the european countries giving land to tribal leaders who had helped them against the ottomans. You could argue that for the Arab states, the state created the nation, and not the other way around. There was no "Saudi nation" 400 years ago; Saudi just refers to the Saud family of rulers. The same way that the name "Jordan" comes from Transjordan; the British mandate where jews were not allowed to live. There were no "Jordanians" 400 years ago; there were Arabs who lived in the area now called Jordan. The same is true for virtually all Arab peoples, with the exception of the Egyptians, but that is a very debatable subject I don't want to get into.

Germany on the other hand was a nation before it was a unified state.

Anyway, the end of your post is completely true and accurate.
05:02 PM on 02/02/2010
Point taken on the difference between states and national political entities.
Nonetheless, m y point that "Many above states were formed from the remains of British, Russian, Ottoman and French Empires" stands.
Certainly, there is some resemblance between Germany as a nation-state and Israel.
It can be argued that both Germany and Israel are nation-states. Especially in their view on diaspora Germans and Jews, respectively.
Great post though, squiems.
Post more. The site needs more rationality.
11:38 AM on 02/02/2010
Israel can withdraw from the West Bank and let them be independent, but that won't make it a two-state solution, it will make it a three-state solution. I doubt Hamas and Fatah will ever reconcile. Hamas is an Iranian proxy, while Fatah is a Saudi Arabian proxy, and those two nations are enemies of each other and of Israel.
01:00 PM on 02/02/2010
Hamas and PA will eventually reconcile. But this may take a generation. Or a few more decisive defeats of Hamas similar to Cast Lead.
Afterall, PLO retreated from their revanchist stance only after decisive defeats in Jordan, Lebanon and withdrawal of petro-dollar support due to collaborationist activities in occupied Kuwait.
11:12 AM on 02/02/2010
This is certainly something for which we should hope, but it can't happen as long as Hamas claims that Israel must vacate "Occupied Palestine" while defining "Occupied Palestine" to include every square inch of Israel
09:30 AM on 02/02/2010
Hello Joel - just so you know that some of us aren't quite so gullible.
Commitment to a 2 state solution is open ended.
So until then - well we'll just have to go on with an eternal occupation.
Win win eh?
Did the oh so impressive officers tellyou that was theie real preference for the '2 state solution'?
02:07 PM on 02/02/2010
After unilaterally leaving Gaza and being thanked with rockets (before the blockade, remember), what responsible leader would withdraw from an area within easy rocket range of it's capital, largest cities, major population centers, and only international airport.

Please answer my question; for the life of me I cannot imagine a good answer.
02:54 PM on 02/02/2010
You want an answer?
Your take is rubbish.
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courtb
02:54 AM on 02/02/2010
Joel, will you be offering daily updates?
09:14 PM on 02/01/2010
Majority of Israelis and world Jewish community accepts the two-state solution with Palestinians.
It is not clear that this is the case with Palestinians.
Certainly election of Hamas, an organization which adamantly opposes two-state solution in favor of Jihad proves it.
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Freenation
09:32 PM on 02/01/2010
while electing bouncer lie.berman and netan.yahoo was a very smart move, right?
10:09 PM on 02/01/2010
Election of Hamass may have permanently damaged Palestinian case.
And once again proved to the world ( even the Arab world) utter lack of political maturity of Palestinian masses.
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courtb
02:52 AM on 02/02/2010
Like the Palestinians showed their commitment to peace by voting for Hamas in Gaza?

Look, Israelis actually voted for Kadima but due to the lovely rockets raining down daily from Gaza, Likkud caught up and made it a close enough election that it was decided that Bibi was the one who could form the coalition gov't and he was made PM.
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05:27 PM on 02/01/2010
Two-state is 99% DEAD and not even Miracle Max (Princess Bride) would be able to revive it.

The problem in a nutshell is there is not enough contiguous, usable land available for a Palestinian state.

There are over 500,000 Israelis squatting on the land that is needed for Palestine and there is absolutely no one in Israel with both the will and the military might to move those people off the land. The Negev has no water nor soil suitable for farming nor any other resources. Will Israeli tax payers pay to make the Negev livable? I doubt it.

So if Israel can not evict the squatters and can not make some usable land and water available, how can there be a two-state solution, so any more talk of a two-state solution is just hot air.

What are Israel's REALISTIC options about what to do with 5 MILLION+ Arabs they don't want? There are not many and most involve lots of Israelis deaths.

The only solution with minimal deaths is a One-State solution where the Arabs are equal citizens and can vote in an Arab replacement for Bibi. This will make Israel just like Iran except the Jewish minority in Israel will be bigger.

Israelis have obviously not thought through the consequences of letting 500,000 people squat on land they had no right to be on. Now Israel can not figure out how to undo the mess without having a civil war.
09:17 PM on 02/01/2010
Small problem with this revanchist fantasy prediodically taken out of mothballs
Israeli electorate ( Jewish, Christin and Muslim) wants nothing to do with Palestinains.
05:38 AM on 02/02/2010
They wouldn't keep moving in next door if that were the case.
11:27 AM on 02/02/2010
But they certainly love to get up real, real, real close though.
04:16 AM on 02/02/2010
You have a spot on analysis, Israel must stop the construction of settlements. If it means forcing them (the settlers) out then that's what they have to do. People respond to incentives, so Israel must act to create positive incentives for staying within Israel's borders and negative incentives for attempting to settle outside of them. This should be the topic of the peace process debates.
12:49 PM on 02/02/2010
"Israel must stop the construction of settlements. "
They have!
Next subject...
03:37 PM on 02/01/2010
The next big questions regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state are: will it continue to be an apartheid state, refusing to allow Jews to become citizens, and will it stop assaulting its Christian inhabitants?
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lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
04:22 PM on 02/01/2010
Palestine is not an Apartheid state Israel is. Palestine has every right to control immigration. It has every right to demand that every single settler, all of whom are on stolen land, abandon that land, and return to where they belong. So far few Israelis or other Jews have actually tried to legally immigrate to Palestine. The entire "setttlement" policy of Israel is illegal.
10:13 PM on 02/01/2010
"Palestine has every right to control immigration."
Not at this point. Neither Israel, nor Jordan or Egypt would consent to Palestinians controlling borders and/or airports without strict control from the above three nations.
based on actions of the lasd 30 years from Events of "Black September" and culminating in installing Iranian puppt, Hamass in power, these three states will nto allow Palestinain ctronl until; some level of political maturity is reached.
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courtb
02:53 AM on 02/02/2010
I agree about the settlements but then are you ok with Israel controlling immigration into Israel?
07:31 PM on 02/01/2010
Most Christians in Gaza blame the Israeli occupation pre-2005, the current siege on the city and the war on Gaza 2009 to be the reason for their Exodus from Gaza. During the recent war on Gaza, two churches, Baptist and Catholic, were slightly damaged by Israeli shelling, and many Christians including 15 year old Christine Turk [16], lost their lives during the Gaza offensive. There had been reported attacks on Palestinian Christians in Gaza from small Muslim extremist groups, most notably Ramy Ayyad, but Gaza Pastor Manuel Musallam doubts the attacks were religiously motivated[17]

After Pope Benedict XVI's comments on Islam in September 2006, five churches, among them two Greek Orthodox churches - as such, not affiliated with either Catholicism or the Pope - were firebombed and shot at in the West Bank and Gaza. No one was hurt and no one claimed responsibility.[18] Former Palestinian Prime Minister and current Hamas leader Ismail Haniya condemned the attacks and police presence was elevated in Bethlehem, which has a sizable Christian community.[19]

Armenians in Jerusalem, identified as Palestinian Christians, have also been attacked and received threats from Israeli and Jewish extremists. In September, two Armenian Christian clergy were expelled after protesting against Jewish extremists for spitting on holy Christian objects.[20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_Christians

But you will only bash the Muslims, right?
11:25 AM on 02/02/2010
It is taqwqiya of most ingenious kind to balme the violence against Christian in Palestinian controlled territories on Israelis. This is especially distended from reality in Gaza, an area controlled by intolerant fundamentalist Islamcists..
But people are not deceived. The world is well familiar with the history of ehhhh... tolerance displayed by M-lim fundamentalists throughout the world.
11:36 AM on 02/02/2010
Hemara, alysheba - go to - www.independent.co.uk and then follow links to this conference.
Good reading.