Negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program will soon morph into technical discussions about levels of uranium enrichment, nuclear inspections protocol and fuel swaps. As the negotiations proceed, policymakers -- particularly in Washington -- will grow increasingly nervous about the prospects for a nuclear deal.
It is therefore essential that policymakers keep in mind five core principles about these negotiations to give our diplomats enough space to do their critical work, to increase prospects for preventing an Iranian nuclear bomb and to avoid a disastrous war.
First, war talk is counterproductive to our strategic interests. Talk of military strikes raises the specter of economic calamity and provides ammunition to those in Iran who want a nuclear weapon. Oil prices are so high that Iran's leaders continue to enrich themselves while their population suffers. At the same time, Americans are feeling real pain at the pump and risking an economic slowdown. A strike on Iran would strengthen those inside Iran who argue that nuclear weapons would protect their country from attack, while also legitimizing such a potential program in the eyes of the international community if Iran were to decide to weaponize.
Second, sanctions work best if they are in the service of diplomacy. Sanctions can be a useful tool for furthering negotiations, if used properly. Ultimate authority over their implementation must be in the hands of the president, and by extension, his negotiators. As yet, the president has not relieved any pressure on Iran, but should have the inherent flexibility to use sanctions as leverage, making adjustments as the negotiations warrant. If sanctions are inflexible, we risk tying the president's hands by preventing him from executing his constitutional responsibilities to protect our security.
Third, to get Iran to come clean, we must be willing to close the nuclear file. To prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon, we need to extract binding commitments from Iran about its peaceful nuclear intentions that are verifiable. We also need to understand what Iran has done in the past -- including bad behavior -- to fully close this nuclear file. A key incentive for Iran to come clean and committing to stay clean is the knowledge that they will not be counterproductively penalized for past transgressions. Punishing Iran for its past behavior would ensure that Iran’s program would remain in the shadows, undercutting our goal of preventing a future Iranian nuclear weapon.
Fourth, Iran has the right to a verifiably peaceful nuclear program. The international community should recognize that right as long as the program is vigorously monitored and the program’s most dangerous nuclear material is either removed or safeguarded. We know that Iran is enriching uranium to a level -- just under 20 percent -- that deeply concerns the West, and that Iran has a large stockpile of uranium enriched to under 5 percent. Iran has a need for both levels of enrichment. In order to accept Iran having a peaceful nuclear program, the more highly enriched material must be secured. Future enrichment to that level, if necessary for peaceful purposes, should be closely monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency and based upon agreements with the international community. This arrangement would ensure that Iran does not acquire the fissile material necessary to make a nuclear bomb, thus allaying the West's deepest concerns, while also providing Iran with sufficient fissile material for its peaceful nuclear power and medical needs.
Fifth, nuclear negotiations will not solve all of our concerns about Iran. Talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear program are rightly focused on the most urgent matter for international security -- the possible development of nuclear weapons. However, nuclear negotiations will not resolve all of our concerns about Iran, such as terrorism, human rights, and democracy. A parallel diplomatic track, similar to the approach we took with the Soviet Union during the Helsinki Process, should be established with Iran. Iran's critics will point to its multiple transgressions as cause for halting nuclear diplomacy, but failure to resolve all of these issues in the near term should not become an excuse for refraining from advancing our immediate security interests through nuclear negotiations.
What is clear from the past week of diplomacy is that these negotiations are entering a politically sensitive phase. One meeting in Istanbul will not be enough to resolve all the issues on the table. Yet despite the deep challenges surrounding the negotiations, it's ironic that the nuclear standoff with Iran may actually be the easiest issue to negotiate, as the disagreements are technical in nature.
Nonetheless, it will take time to build confidence between the West and Iran. A sustainable process is therefore essential. Fortunately, the successful international cooperation built against Iran's nuclear program has created significant leverage for obtaining a deal that meets our security objectives. So if policymakers can find the political will to adhere to these five principles, they just might help to provide the political support needed for a nuclear deal that will constrain Iran's ability to ever acquire a nuclear weapon -- and have a political win to crow about.
This article originally appeared on the Ploughshares Fund blog.
Follow Joel Rubin on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JoelMartinRubin
Rizwan Ladha: Iran -- Nuclear Weapons, Not Energy
Roy Gutman |
ISTANBUL, Turkey — The United States missed an opportunity to ease concerns about Iran's nuclear program nearly two years ago when it rejected a carefully negotiated deal that would have allowed Western powers to provide Iran uranium for its nuclear reactors,
The deal, known as Tehran declaration, had been put together by the presidents of Brazil and Turkey, whose diplomats devoted enormous energies persuading power brokers in the Iranian government to accept it.
But U.S. and other powers rejected it because they feared Iran had agreed to its terms only to undercut U.N. Security Council resolution that imposed new sanctions on government in Tehran.
The rejection of Tehran declaration takes on new relevancy as United States and five other major powers sit down with Iran here Saturday in hopes of reviving negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
The alternative to near-term progress is a collision course that might start with an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities but could well drag the U.S. and Gulf oil-producing states into war against a well-armed nation of 77 million. Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as a mortal threat. President Barack Obama has refused to rule out the use of military force, although he has committed the United States to find a diplomatic resolution.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/04/13/v-print/145184/did-us-miss-2010-chance-for-iran.html
Iran, as I have said several times, is not alone in the world. The country has powerful partners who look a THEIR national interests first. If these national interests are congruent with the Iranian national interest the better for Iran and the worst for the American-Israeli complex.
Muck-raker below there has it summed up very nicely.
It will be the American-Israeli complex which has to back down.
Not Russia, not China.
And there is no military analyst I am aware of who states otherwise.
Contrary to anti-war scare propaganda, a military conflict between Israel and Iran will not be WWIII
You don't know what the results of war between Israel and Iran would be. What would one misplaced missile into an ULCC do in the Strait? It could easily close the strait for weeks. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's throat.
And, contrary to your claim, Pakistan has a defense treaty with Iran. Pakistan has nuclear weapons as does Israel.
If Israel starts a war that disrupts the worlds oil supply, imagine how popular Israel will be. Think Netanyahu would like to move Israel to Mars? That might be the closest safe place.
In fact, there's no good reason for war.
This summarizes everything, it is the Israeli view point mainly. There is no nuclear issue with Iran other than it is an issue because Israel wants it to be. They can use it to beat up on Iran, "the world" obliges because they are scared that Israel will use its nuclear option. So why solve a non-problem problem, when you can use it to your advantage? Thus I expect Israel with the help of their friends in US to scuttle any agreement... did anyone read the nonsense the Israeli firsters are clinging to, to scuttle any compromise in NY Times?
The bottom line is this, Israelis openly talk about not letting any country in the middle east to gain military, technological or political superiority to them and they have been artfully enforcing it by using the American muscle. The Iranians won't go for that not this regime or any in the future.
2. The USA 's anti-Iran aggression violates the NPT
3. Because of the illegal sanctions against Iran, consumers are in effect paying a tax to Israel every time they fill their fuel tank, or purchase any goods which have been transported using petroleum
Their perceived "threats" emanate off course from the womb of the Arab woman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMJ4TYXDKLc&
The only question is: who is going to fight that wonderful new War for them, as they obviously are not volunteering to send off their own children to die in another War for Israel.
1: Then why has their been constant war talk from our Zionified foreign policy establishment?
2: Ha ha ha ha. Diplomacy? What that? We've codified sanctions as a prelude to war.
3. Who's the 'we' that can tell a sovereign country what hoops it must jump through to prove a negative?
4: Thanks for the permission. Tell that to the Japanese, who are nuclear capable and stockpiling plutonium for the last 30 years for what purpose exactly?
5: Yeah, nothing will ever resolve our 'concerns'. As a people, we need boogiemen to remain in a permanent space of fear.
TEHRAN (FNA)- Senior Iranian energy officials announced that the country would start sending gas supplies to neighboring Pakistan in 2014.
"A deal for Iran to export gas to Pakistan has been finalized," Iranian Oil Minister Qassemi told news conference at Tehran Oil Show, according to ministry's website. He said Iran has constructed its tranche of pipeline up to the city of Iranshahr. While the USA and Israel bellow threats Iran has linked up with China, India, Russia, Brazil, S.Africa for Mutual TRADE. Iran has joined IRAQ in deal to DRILL their OIL. Sanctions by the US have only hurt Americans raising our fuel prices by .42 gal. Because of sanction on World banks Iran now trades in Barter or receipts for FOOD in trade. India has now traded huge quantities of rice and barley for OIL. recently ADM and Monsanto have sold 200,000 tons of wheat to Iran with promise of another 200,000 tons end of May, apparently the sanctions do not include the big moneyed interest.
Iran Discovers 2 New Oil Fields
TEHRAN (FNA)- A senior Iranian oil official announced that two new oil fields with considerable reserves have been discovered
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8101300417
informed people of the World look at the hipocracy that goes on daily. The microscope needs to be on Israel who has nukes does not belong to NPT or IAEA and threatens its neighbors daily.
Big surprise Monsanto and ADM are allowed to skirt the rules...
Hippocracy is the rule of horses)
:D
Thanks for keeping up the good work!
You may not believe Iran is working on a future nuclear missile, but Israel does.
Israel has stated it will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran.
Israel has destroyed three other nuclear programs.
None of those programs has ever been re-built, despite claims by critics that they would be.
It's worried about nuclear armed mullahs who see martydom as a good outcome.
Iran fights (with or without Pakistan) and Hormuz is closed due to fighting.
Gasoline hits $15-20US per gallon.
This would collapse the world economy.
The world got the idea that it was Israel's desire for war that caused the collapse. (the truth)
Do you think Israel could relocate to Mars with all of the world's Jews?
That would be the closest safe place.
Do many in Israel share mr. Gudwin's attitude?
Iran will never live up to any agreement that precludes them from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Their record of lying ( 18 years of lying to the IAEA http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11709428) their admission that they only use talks to further their illicit program ( http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2012/01/16/in-their-own-words-for-iranians-negotiations-stalling/ ) should make it very clear that they will use any method of deception to get the nuclear weapon they seek.
Iran will use the talks to stall and develop their bomb. Then they will stop talking.
The US' veto next week at the UN will be the 43rd time it has been the solitary veto on resolutions condemning Israel.
while USA and Israel try to keep World from seeing what is happening right under their eyes the USA VOTES NO on Palestinian Statehood...oh the crime of it all.
Solitude and Absurdity. Susan Rice raised her hand to veto Security Council resolution condemning Israeli colonial expansion. Fourteen of the fifteen members of the UN's most important body voted for this resolution save the United States.
The absurdity?
The United States does not want to see another episode of this saga - let's call it Israel Island - repeated when the Palestinians bring their application for membership to the United Nations this week.
With Arab clearly asserting their influence in politics today more than ever and with Palestine continuing to be tie that binds Arab nations, United States knows that being an impediment to Palestinian self-determination on an international stage is only becoming costlier.
Vacationing on Israel Island
US has been routinely vacationing on Israel Island for years. since 1972 United States has been the solitary veto on 42 Security Council resolutions condemning Israeli violations of international law or human rights. Now, in light of the Arab uprisings and recalcitrant Netanyahu government hell-bent on expanding Israeli colonies despite state US policy, Israel Island is not comfortable destination it used to be.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201191785718812831.html
and last so that people know Israel who is the land thief of the century just got the USA to vote NO on Palestinian Statehood...
2. If a bomb lands in Tel Aviv its NOT only the end of us but at least half the Palestinians on the West Bank.
3 Half the population here is directly linked to the Holocaust. Althougth I am an active Peacenik - the stronger we are the better. My children and myself have fought war after war feeling like the 2nd WW just didnt end.
4 Not ONE American had shed blood for us.
5. On the contrary they boycotted us when were attacked in 48 when were attacked by 5 armies (and we literally had no arms - we stole ex-ww2 planes etc - many survivors fought and died and were mourned by no one as they had no one)
6. Many survivors were kept in camps for TWO years after WW2.
7. The Americans refused to bomb Auschwitz.
8. America refused to accepted Jews before the war (except for 300 kids by Mrs Roosevelt)
9. America released even the most cruel Germans.
I have much more to write but enough is enough.
READING THE ABOVE DO YOU HONESTLY BELIEVE WE WILL LET IRAN BUILD A BOMB???
1. Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty.
2. All the Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in, the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also co-operate in contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations to the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing areas of the world.
In reality, however, the Israelis understand that Iran will not pursue anyone's eradication The Israelis possess a qualitative military advantage which the Iranians seek to neutralise.. Another way of shrinking the Israeli advantage is by pursuing nuclear weapons.
To be sure, it is far from clear that the Iranians are pursuing a nuclear weapon. Their nuclear enrichment programme is legal under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty, which they have signed and ratified. But the Iranians have no doubt taken note of two recent and relevant case studies: North Korea and Libya. Kim Jong-Il died of natural causes. Gadaffi did not.
Netanyahu made a two-fold calculation when he ordered Ahmadi-Roshan's murder. First, the Iranians may react -- to the assassination. That would provide the US and Israelis with the kind of flimsy political cover they require to attack. In the anarchical world of inter-state competition, few states in the Middle East would actually object to a US attack, particularly if the Iranians could be made to appear confrontational. I
Amed Moor
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/01/201212194348390751.html
FF