No matter how difficult Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking gets, there are always opportunities to change its trajectory and move diplomacy in a positive direction. Another such opportunity will be provided later this month at the United Nations when the Palestinians ask for recognition as a state.
Some say that the Palestinians have no right to bring their case to the United Nations. Others say that the international community should let the Palestinians have whatever they want at the United Nations. These are false choices.
Instead, the Palestinians should negotiate their petition for statehood behind the scenes with Israel and other pro-Israel countries, including the United States, and then bring it forward to the General Assembly.
Israel should then vote for it. Doing so is squarely in its interest. Here's why.
First, an avalanche of warm feelings toward Israel would be unleashed by such a move. The whole world would cheer. Israel would ignite a positive response in the Arab world unseen since it first signed the Oslo Accords with the Palestinians in 1993. Other Arab states, including those whose transformation to democracy requires Israel to pay more attention to popular sentiments in these countries, would rush to create new relations with Israel.
Second, the Palestinians would have certainty that they would be getting a state. This would change the whole internal Palestinian political dynamic, demonstrating to Palestinians that the moderate leadership of Mahmoud Abbas -- one that promotes nonviolent actions rather than military ones -- could actually create results.
And third, Israel, despite supporting Palestinian statehood, would not notice one physical change on the ground in Jerusalem, the West Bank or the Gaza Strip. It would still hold all the cards, maintaining the same ability to negotiate that it has now. But unlike today, it would have massive international support for its arguments about recognition as a Jewish state by the Palestinians, no right of return for Palestinian refugees, and on Jerusalem. International opinion -- as opposed to now -- would be more flexible with Israel, helping Israel to advance its interests during final negotiations with the Palestinians.
Yet unfortunately, because Israel's current government does not want to go this route, and has instead launched an intense international campaign to block Palestinian statehood at the United Nations, the world holds its breath for the exact opposite to occur.
What we are likely to instead see once the Israelis vote against a Palestinian state and after the results of the vote are overwhelmingly in the Palestinians' favor, is an accelerating negative trajectory for Israel's position in the world.
In this scenario, it is likely that Israel will take action to annex territory in the West Bank where there are current settlements -- settlements that, after the statehood vote, would be perceived as illegal Israeli control of Palestinian national territory. It is also likely that the U.S. Congress will cut off aid to the Palestinian Authority, impoverishing the Palestinian government and possibly ushering in a more radical government led by Hamas. And it is likely that the diplomatic track between Israel and the Palestinians will be near death.
This is why the United States is so concerned about the pending U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood. The Obama administration correctly understands that the reactions to a vote in both the Congress and Israel will be severe, and when combined with the resultant Palestinian disillusionment, counterproductive to peacemaking.
There is also a tragic irony about this issue that should not be ignored.
In 1948, the process for creating a Jewish state was precarious and unclear. Yet the Jews of Palestine decided -- rightly -- to push forward to seek international recognition of their state at the United Nations despite the threat of war. And the neighboring Arab states reacted wrongly, rejected the state, and launched a fruitless -- and losing -- war. Imagine if the Arabs had, despite the political sacrifices it would have entailed, recognized Israel in 1948. Imagine all the pain that both Israelis and Arabs would have been spared.
Israel should therefore rethink its position before it's too late and make a choice based upon its real interests. It would benefit immediately and directly by voting in favor of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations, and most importantly, even the majority of its own citizens' support Palestinian statehood and could learn to live with a "yes" vote. But by rejecting Palestinian statehood at the United Nations, Israel will be making a decision that, like the Arab decision of 1948, could haunt it for decades to come.
So Israel should vote for Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Doing so will change nothing on the ground the day after the vote, but will make all the difference in the world for the two sides as they continue on their exasperatingly long journey toward peace.
This piece was originally published in the Pittsburgh Jewish Chronicle.
Joel Rubin is the Director of Policy and Government Affairs at Ploughshares Fund; the views expressed here are his own and not necessarily those of Ploughshares Fund.
Follow Joel Rubin on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JoelMartinRubin
Elisabeth Braw: Palestinian Prime Minister Fayyad: "We Can No Longer be Dismissed as Unworthy"
This effort will be for far worse than naught. The Palestinians are knee capping themselves here because no amount of international pressure is going to get them what they want. If this vote does result in legal actions Israel will ignore them and Israeli moderates will be marginalized. When disillusionment grows among the Palestinians because statehood got them nothing Palestinian moderates will be sidelined. I don't see how this will do anything but result in more blood on both sides for a still longer period of time.
However, this failure is vastly preferable to the TRUE failure that would occur if the setters persist and ultimately usher in a one state solution and a palestinian majority in Israel. Frankly, in a better world, that would be the best solution, but the road there would be awash in blood and suffering for all concerned.
This is the best and last opportunity for a two state solution that does not require a great deal more killing and suffering for both sides. The only thing that stands in it's way is the settlers and their backers, who have never been friends of Israel, the Palestinians, the US, or peace for that matter.
The region is quickly aligning against an Israel that would attempt to maintain and further the worlds only violently enforced colonial setter movement. Israel must take this opportunity to do away with the settlements and occupation forever, and create lasting positive ties with all of it's neighbors.
LOL.......you accept a two state solution as long as the Palestinian state is somewhere in Mongolia.
Are you a joke or what. You and others like you are the reason that things have come this far. Israel is in a land that doesn't belong to it. Get it?
There is NO reason why the 1967 borders, which have no historical meaning other than being the 1948 ceasefire line, should be the final borders. Especially since 95% of the palestinian population exists in areas A, and B under oslo, where no major settlements are located.
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It seems to have escaped the author's notice that the Palestinians refuse to negotiate with Israel and this bid is a further attempt to avoid any concessions to or recognition of Israel. By voting for this bid for recognition based on the straight '67 lines, Israel would relinquish all claim to EJ, the Old City, and any rights to negotiated land swaps. Such a move also would do nothing to curb many Palestinians' ultimate goal of "reclaiming" all of Israel.
This article is pie-in-the-sky idealism which completely ignores reality.
The bid as it will be presented to the UN calls for a state with the '67 lines, period. No required negotiation, not even on Jerusalem. How can Israel assent to this?
The author is against palestinian statehood
1. UNRWA will leave Palestine and Gaza.
2.Far small Palestinain state than Clinton parameters.
3.No Palestinain refugees into Israel. (a moot point considering how few Palestinian refugees there are).
4. No physical connection between Gaza and W. Bank.
5. No Jerusalem presence for Palestinains.
6. Security Barrier will be the final border.
7. No more refugee camps in W. Bank and Gaza. ( A clear benefit to Palestinains forced to live in them by their rulers.)
8. Palestinains will get their revenge brownie, which may calm them down and redirect their energies towards building their own communities, for a change.
Lastly, do you call all comments you disagree with "petty"? There was nothing petty, and nothing that indicates any sort of rage in the post you responded to.
erehon7 simply doesn't know what he is talking about and can't keep his talking points strait
If the parable of the turtle and the scorpion in the middle east gave the Scorpion a life preserver it would be the UNWRA....
What do you want us to do after reading your article: to laugh or to cry?
Palestinain borders will be the Security Barrier. and not a single Palestinain refugee will ever enter Israeli soil or receive a shekel of compensation.
So....You are against recognizing them as an independent state, but are too cowardly to admit it
Several extremely mild criticisms I posted against a pro-Arab blogger ( Mr. Zogby) was immediately removed by the same.
Shame.
I promice you I have had far more posts cencored than you
And there's nothing personal about it. I take issue with his articles position which is cowardly. He clearly opposes recognizing palestine as a state, yet tries to pretend that he's open to it.
And there's the problem for Israel, because even if it were to gain 'massive international support' (which, by definition, would have to be more than US support in defiance of its official stance) it would not be able to leverage that political support into legal rulings at the ICJ, while Palestinians could neutralize that political support by saying they would respect the outcome of an ICJ case.
While I do agree that it is in Israel's interests to have this statehood recognition bid succeed, the reason has nothing to do with its hopes of doing an end run around international laws and universal rights, but instead is existential in nature. If Israel cannot cement the 'two state solution' into the narrative by getting international recognition for that second, seperate state formally on the record, it will most likely see the narrative about the 'two state solution' shift to become the narrative about the 'multi-state solution' that the Africaaner state advanced, which is to say being seen as perpetuating the problem, leaving the only real solution (in the eyes of the world) as being the single state one vote per person of whatever ethnicity, one passport, one level of citizenship, from the river to the sea one.
And, the one state solution is what put the end to that civil war.
He has the exact same position as Israel
No recognition of statehood unless under israel's terms
Building houses and LIVING in them absolutely makes them "the world's most dangerous terrorists".
Unless, of course, one were take the position that the things that the Germans were doing in occupied France to keep their presence there were a completely seperate issue from their presence there.
Hey, who said pro--Palestinain camp is even remotely interested in reality.
There will be NO warm feelings towards Israel no matter what it decides.Fuggetaboutit!
And - at least - the 57 Muslim(-majority) states will see ANY concessions and goodwill gestures by Israel as WEAKNESS to be exploited and then ignored, just as they have done for the past 18 years.
What I would like to see.
Recognition of the palestinian statehood.
Complete border closing to Gaza and WB.
Aid stoppage from Israel and the US.
palestinians who live in Israel legally as Israeli citizens to remain as such with equal rights. But not a single new palestinians after the recognition to be permitted in Israel, until the PA changes their stance officially and on paper about Jews being permitted in palestine.
Israel removing settlers from areas that they knew they would need to remove them some day.
Those who are officially recognizing Israel dishing out what they haven't in over seven decades, aid to the palestinians.