The October Surprises Waiting for Obama

In five weeks, I hope look back on this column with a wry chuckle at my paranoia. If the system works, Barack Obama will take the White House. The two issues John McCain is most closely associated with - invading Iraq, and deregulating the economy - have produced history-snatching catastrophes in the eyes of 80 percent of Americans. In the first debate, McCain revealed he had nothing to say except more of the same: aggression abroad, market fundamentalist ideology at home. So why am I worried?

Obama is only a few jittery points ahead in the polls, and he has yet to face an October Surprise. This is an old term in US politics, invented when, on the eve of the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson announced a halt to the bombing of Vietnam. It was a desperate attempt to push the Democratic nominee, Hubert Humphrey, over the finish line - and it failed. But October Surprises need not come from the opposing party. They can come from anywhere.

The first and worst would be the reappearance of Osama Bin Laden. Just five days before the 2004 election, he released a video effectively endorsing John Kerry. He told Americans to imagine corpses crying "Call to task those who have caused our death!" and said they should "return to what is right," rather than reward "the liar in the White House."

Why would he do this? Bin Laden's long-term strategy is "provoke and bait." He explains to his supporters: "We conducted a war of attrition against Russia with jihad fighters for ten years until they went bankrupt. We are continuing in the same policy - to make America bleed profusely to the point of bankruptcy." To achieve this, "all we have to do is send two mujahideen [to a remote, irrelevant area] and raise a piece of cloth on which is written 'Al Qaeda' in order to make the [US] generals race there, to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses."

This is his goal, in his own words - to bleed America through irrational, wildly expensive wars that will tilt thousands more fanatical young men from Islamism to full-blown jihadism. So who would you want in the White House? The guy who will wean the US off Middle Eastern oil and the wars and tyrannies it supports to get it - or his opponent? Bin Laden is a monster, but he is not an imbecile. He knows that his endorsement is a kiss of death. The man he publicly praises is the man he wants to lose. Kerry failed to expose Bin Laden's trick; Obama must do it as soon as the tape hits the air.

Beyond this, there could be November 4th surprise: the Republicans may try to steal the election. Again. They loudly claim to be concerned about voter fraud, even though a New York University study recently found that it "is more likely an individual will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls." But in the name of this paltry risk, they are effectively stripping millions of people - overwhelmingly black and Democrats - of their vote.

Their first vote-stripping tactic is to require elaborate voter I.D. that black people disproportionately lack. For example, in Indiana - a crucial swing state - Republicans have passed a law requiring voters to bring an official government document bearing their photograph to the polling station. But a study by the University of Wisconsin found that 53 percent of black adults didn't have a passport or driving license, compared to 15 percent of white people. So they can't vote unless they travel for hours (often without a car) to a sparse government registry and queue for half a day to get the correct the correct documentation. The former political director of the Texas Republican Party, Royal Masset, explains: "Requiring photo IDs could cause enough of a drop-off in legitimate Democratic voting to add 3 percent to the Republican vote."

Their second tactic is to strip the electoral rolls of black names. In almost all US states, criminals lose their vote for life. This is shocking in itself - it disenfranchises a quarter of all black men in Kentucky, for one. But many states have a sloppy process where they simply scrub anyone with the same name as a criminal off the list. So if there is a criminal called 'Chris Wayne' in a county, every black man called 'Chris Wayne' loses their vote. That's a lot of Democrats. In Florida in 2000, black voters made up 13 percent of the electorate yet they were 26 percent of the people wrongly disenfranchised.

When a judge ordered the release of the paper-work, he found out why. The team under Florida governor Jeb Bush had ordered that black criminal names had to go - but Hispanic names were not to be touched. Black Floridians overwhelmingly vote Democrat, while Hispanics lean towards the Republicans. The Bush team said this was "absolutely unintentional" and "a coincidence."

This time, the Republicans have added another group to strip from the rolls. James Carabelli, a Republican Party chairman in Michigan, says: "We have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren't voting from those addresses." These voters are supposed to register from their new addresses - but many are out of time, or too stressed to do it. So the Republicans have launched a national "voter challenge campaign" against honest people who have lost their homes. They know that 60 percent of sub-prime mortgages went to black voters, and virtually everyone who lost their home is angry with the Republicans.

If these acts of electoral sabotage go ahead on November 4th and tilt the election to McCain, Obama needs to learn from Al Gore's mistake. As the recent HBO film Recount shows, Gore was consensual and statesmanlike - in the middle of a knife-fight. He sent urbane professors to make his case, while the Republicans drummed up mobs that physically stopped the vote-counts in Palm Beach County while the clock ticked. If the need comes, Obama needs to call fraud by its real name - and fight.

I hope I'm being too cynical. I hope I'm wrong. But it would be wise fasten your seatbelts: it's going to be a bumpy month.

Johann Hari is a columnist for the Independent in London. To read a full archive of his work, click here.

To read his latest book review for the New York Times, click here.

Comments

[dkan71]

Mr. Hari, please provide some source or evidence to back up your matter of fact claim that "60% of subprime mortgages went to black voters". That is quite a statement and potentially inflammatory, yet sounds wildly out of proportion given the percentage of black homeowners vs. white and other ethinic groups. It's not a far step from that statement to concluding that poor black people are to blame for the economic mess. I am unwilling for that type of insinuation to go unchecked. I look forward to your response.

[RumiSouth]

I get teh feeling that an October Surprise would be superfluous right now. The market just went in the tank, the Republican brand just doubled in toxicity, and McCain is floundering like a landed fish. America is in no mood for Osama tapes. They might only get passing mention on Fox, at this point.

[ObjectiveAutismDad]

If Bin Laden wants McCain to win -- he could just turn himself in. That would be a huge bump for McCain -- rightly or wrongly.

[marchamlin]

I agree with ALMOST everything that was said. There is one thing wrong in this article.

In many states, including Michigan, a law has been passed that actually allows felons to regain their right to vote. Most of these states require that the felon be released from prison, but do not require that the parole term be completed. Different states have different laws, so check it out.

If you or anyone you know thinks they have lost their right to vote because of a felony, CHECK IT OUT first! Find out, then make sure you (or them) are properly registered.

[Ratso]

Good point above. Any convicted felons serving a term of >364 days and any felon convicted of a violent crime should loose his/her voting rights until he/she's prison term has expired. Additionally, I see no problem in someone having to show an ID in order to vote. I cannot come up with even 1 reason why someone should not obtain an ID for something as important as voting. No ID = no vote. Is it so inconvenient?

[keepacoolhead]

They will try to put out the fear card. Osama bin Laden or some other perceived threat will emerge, or they claim they found him. They try to appeal to people's fears. Who knows what all will happen.

As Election day is going to be insane I would suggest that as many people as possible check their registrations, vote early if it's possible and safe. We need to be proactive as it is well known that massive election fraud will be expected AGAIN.

[Clois]

This needs to be talked about in churches, especially black churches.
(I am black, so no racism here, just realistic ideas)
Many of these churches have vans/buses and they could actually load the people up that do not have photo id's and transport them to offices to obtain these id's. They could provide little sack lunches for the elderly so if they have to wait all day, so be it! I'm sure in some communities people would be willing to donate money to help purchase gasoline and/or food for the sack lunches.
Some states charge $5.00 for these picture id's. Maybe cost more now, but donations could even be taken for the elderly that can not afford the cost. I think if this was brought before many churches, the congretions would be willing to help.

[SaltySaltillo]

You are not helping by spreading misinformation about the rights of people with criminal records to vote. This is simply not true. See http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/voterights.htm for the full break down of state laws. A handful of states are aggressive about disenfranchising former offenders, but certainly this is not the majority position.

[LAB11]

The rethugs will continue to be caught in their own traps. America has been paying close attention. Go ahead, rethugs, keep setting those traps, please.

[jupitor]

No fraud this time! there being reported as fast as they are happening! People are being sent out to investigate! The DNC is getting dozens of calls, and will continue to! You want to see a revolt in america, let the republicans try it this time!

[yesenia]

Voter fraud is happening now, its called caging.. My boss keeps getting letters with his name and address from Mc Cain , he's a lifelong democrat... So I made sure to re-register everyone I knew including the boss as a democrat just in case.. I don't trust these republicans..

[dudervision]

I actually signed up to work as a clerk on election day. If we had had people there helping to explain things like making sure you punched through your voter card and that people understood the ballot, maybe the travesty in Florida would have been prevented.

[DanniD]

"The first and worst would be the reappearance of Osama Bin Laden. Just five days before the 2004 election, he released a video effectively endorsing John Kerry."

If you really believe that was done by OBL, there's a bridge in Alaska, I'd like to sell you! ;-)

[wmary82]

Of course Bush and his gang had something to do with that, just like this little 700 billion dollar deal. bush is no better than Saddam, and people still love him, because how can anyone explain the reasonings why he is allowed to do whatever he wants. I guess that's what some of Americans like is crooks in office.

[AnotherTry]

If the vote is stolen again, can we expect the same vigorous challenge that Kerry launched in Ohio?

Wait a minute. Kerry conceded before the final votes were even counted.

If it is stolen again, I will blame Barack Obama for not fighting.

[lw1899]

Obama's too smart not to fight if McCain somehow "wins" in November. If the Repubicans somehow steal another election, the Obama camp will not go down easy.

It's good that articles like this are calling out the GOP for their reprehensible efforts to suppress Democratic votes. We're all a little smarter this time around.

[fanchon1288]

BTW remind everyone you can not wear a t-shirt, sweat shirt, have any buttons, etc.. supporting a candidate. You will be turned away at the polls. This is a law in the State of Kansas. I don't know about other states. Why take the risk?

[Kristen777]

You know, in the last 2 presidential elections, this issue has called into question the validity of GWB's presidency. The DNC had eight years to bring this matter to the forefront but they failed miserably. To whine about it weeks before this crucial election is useless to us now.

[Gidster]

Agreed! Governor Bush's elections were both so full of questions it is difficult to believe that both Gore and Kerry took the high road and strengthened the republican hold on America.
Too many votes were not counted in 2004, too many voters turned away. Faulty voting machines with no accountability.
Why not avoid a messy election and let the Supreme Court just appoint a President. The voted themselves the power to do so.

[SeanGardner]

"...while Hispanics lean towards the Republicans."

Incorrect on this one Johann. Hispanics in Florida lean toward Republicans. They tend to be "Cuban", but most Hispanics nationwide support Democrats.

Other than that, your post was very insightful.

As someone who has volunteered for Obama for well over a year now, I can tell you that his camapign has been very assertive in addressing and rectifiying the issue of his supporters having the necessary ID to vote. There is always most work a campaign can do. But I just want you to know we have the most dedicated corp of volunteers a presidential campaign has ever had. And we're making it work.

Thanks for post.

[bknott]

Since he was talking about Florida, the "Hispanics (in Florida) lean Republican" is certainly the implication.

[FaceYourFears]

I understand your point but I believe American voters are more engaged in the election process than they were when Gore and Kerry ran. To be honest, I'm more concerned for Sen O's safety than anything else. I believe when people are desperate, sometimes they result to dreadful and desperate measures.

[AnotherTry]

Please.

Face your own fears.