The October Surprises Waiting for Obama
In five weeks, I hope look back on this column with a wry chuckle at my paranoia. If the system works, Barack Obama will take the White House. The two issues John McCain is most closely associated with - invading Iraq, and deregulating the economy - have produced history-snatching catastrophes in the eyes of 80 percent of Americans. In the first debate, McCain revealed he had nothing to say except more of the same: aggression abroad, market fundamentalist ideology at home. So why am I worried?
Obama is only a few jittery points ahead in the polls, and he has yet to face an October Surprise. This is an old term in US politics, invented when, on the eve of the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson announced a halt to the bombing of Vietnam. It was a desperate attempt to push the Democratic nominee, Hubert Humphrey, over the finish line - and it failed. But October Surprises need not come from the opposing party. They can come from anywhere.
The first and worst would be the reappearance of Osama Bin Laden. Just five days before the 2004 election, he released a video effectively endorsing John Kerry. He told Americans to imagine corpses crying "Call to task those who have caused our death!" and said they should "return to what is right," rather than reward "the liar in the White House."
Why would he do this? Bin Laden's long-term strategy is "provoke and bait." He explains to his supporters: "We conducted a war of attrition against Russia with jihad fighters for ten years until they went bankrupt. We are continuing in the same policy - to make America bleed profusely to the point of bankruptcy." To achieve this, "all we have to do is send two mujahideen [to a remote, irrelevant area] and raise a piece of cloth on which is written 'Al Qaeda' in order to make the [US] generals race there, to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses."
This is his goal, in his own words - to bleed America through irrational, wildly expensive wars that will tilt thousands more fanatical young men from Islamism to full-blown jihadism. So who would you want in the White House? The guy who will wean the US off Middle Eastern oil and the wars and tyrannies it supports to get it - or his opponent? Bin Laden is a monster, but he is not an imbecile. He knows that his endorsement is a kiss of death. The man he publicly praises is the man he wants to lose. Kerry failed to expose Bin Laden's trick; Obama must do it as soon as the tape hits the air.
Beyond this, there could be November 4th surprise: the Republicans may try to steal the election. Again. They loudly claim to be concerned about voter fraud, even though a New York University study recently found that it "is more likely an individual will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls." But in the name of this paltry risk, they are effectively stripping millions of people - overwhelmingly black and Democrats - of their vote.
Their first vote-stripping tactic is to require elaborate voter I.D. that black people disproportionately lack. For example, in Indiana - a crucial swing state - Republicans have passed a law requiring voters to bring an official government document bearing their photograph to the polling station. But a study by the University of Wisconsin found that 53 percent of black adults didn't have a passport or driving license, compared to 15 percent of white people. So they can't vote unless they travel for hours (often without a car) to a sparse government registry and queue for half a day to get the correct the correct documentation. The former political director of the Texas Republican Party, Royal Masset, explains: "Requiring photo IDs could cause enough of a drop-off in legitimate Democratic voting to add 3 percent to the Republican vote."
Their second tactic is to strip the electoral rolls of black names. In almost all US states, criminals lose their vote for life. This is shocking in itself - it disenfranchises a quarter of all black men in Kentucky, for one. But many states have a sloppy process where they simply scrub anyone with the same name as a criminal off the list. So if there is a criminal called 'Chris Wayne' in a county, every black man called 'Chris Wayne' loses their vote. That's a lot of Democrats. In Florida in 2000, black voters made up 13 percent of the electorate yet they were 26 percent of the people wrongly disenfranchised.
When a judge ordered the release of the paper-work, he found out why. The team under Florida governor Jeb Bush had ordered that black criminal names had to go - but Hispanic names were not to be touched. Black Floridians overwhelmingly vote Democrat, while Hispanics lean towards the Republicans. The Bush team said this was "absolutely unintentional" and "a coincidence."
This time, the Republicans have added another group to strip from the rolls. James Carabelli, a Republican Party chairman in Michigan, says: "We have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren't voting from those addresses." These voters are supposed to register from their new addresses - but many are out of time, or too stressed to do it. So the Republicans have launched a national "voter challenge campaign" against honest people who have lost their homes. They know that 60 percent of sub-prime mortgages went to black voters, and virtually everyone who lost their home is angry with the Republicans.
If these acts of electoral sabotage go ahead on November 4th and tilt the election to McCain, Obama needs to learn from Al Gore's mistake. As the recent HBO film Recount shows, Gore was consensual and statesmanlike - in the middle of a knife-fight. He sent urbane professors to make his case, while the Republicans drummed up mobs that physically stopped the vote-counts in Palm Beach County while the clock ticked. If the need comes, Obama needs to call fraud by its real name - and fight.
I hope I'm being too cynical. I hope I'm wrong. But it would be wise fasten your seatbelts: it's going to be a bumpy month.
Johann Hari is a columnist for the Independent in London. To read a full archive of his work, click here.
To read his latest book review for the New York Times, click here.
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Hatred is not a surprise in any month. For those who have experienced it, it is more a constant realization of what is. The fear and gullibility of some in the electorate also comes as no surprise for gullibility and fear get together to create hate, which is stupidity. This has been one wild ride and now we look to the home stretch to see which America will emerge. There will be no surprises just the result of the measurement of the heart and mind of a people.
If I was running the McCain campaign I would run only one ad over and over from now until Election Day:
"God D@mn America"
Ok, this and maybe some of the Reverend's other greatest hits.
Palin's pastor blows Wright out of the water! They believe Dinosaurs and Humans co-existed.
Were I Obama, I would run the Keating 5 perp walk as an ad every day!
Best article on this blog.
Thank you. You're right, we really have go to be ready for major disenfranchisements all over the country.
Sometimes I feel like McCain knows something's up, and this is why he's so confident. Otherwise, how could he really be? His party is a bunch of losers, and everyone now knows. Still, he looks quite sure that the "shadow government" is still going to give it to him.
I really support the voter id requirements.
To bank, to work for someone else, to travel outside the u.s., to just cash a check made out to you, to drive, to take Amtrak, to enroll in a college -
you need id. Is that so unreasonable?
All states have IDs that will serve for those who can't or won't drive. A passport is not necessary. I didn't get licensed until I was 21, so I carried a California ID. That way, I could work, go to school, and utilize a checking account and credit cards.
Everyone, no matter what their political leanings, should be able to present a valid ID at the polls. As a matter of fact I think they should present it when they register. Were I certifying a "free and fair" election in a foreign country I could not do so in good conscience if voters did not somehow identify themselves at the polls.
Yes, but that identification could be nothing more than a purple stained finger (see Iraq)...
Republicans will pull out the same old bag of tricks.
And gullible Americans will fall for them.
And then VOTE AGAINST THEMSELVES time after time.
Or--maybe Americans GOT WISE to the Republican exploitations?
That'd sure be a blessing.
We can't afford Republicans any more.
They're big spenders, TOO EXPENSIVE.
NO MORE YEARS for Republicans and their corporate welfare queens. It's cost us too damn much.
Enough already.
my vote's for Obama-Biden: common sense, decency, reason, toughness, responsibility.
I agree.
Vote early, avoid the hassle on election day.
The powers that be keep that power by any means necessary. Being honest in that system automatically puts one at a disadvantage, and it is sad to admit that the depths that the Republicans are willing to sink is also their greatest strength.
Deep, and true.
I agree 100% about Bin Laden! I said the same thing back in 04' , I just don't understand how people cannot see through it. He knows the Republicans have a war mentality, so there is no easier way to bankrupt a country than to keep their small minds within that box. It is called REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY! I think the saddest thing is that the Republicans go around saying "even Bin Laden says the central war of terror is in Iraq", without even logically thinking the reason he says that is because... the longer we stay there, the weaker we become economically and militarily and it gives Al Qaeda and the Taliban more time to grow in masses, as proven TO THIS DAY to be in Afghanistan and Pakistan. I am sure Bin Laden is nicely tucked away in his cave, as he laughs his a@@ off while he watches his plan working to perfection. This administration played right into his hands, thinking they were bigger, badder and smarter...... and McCain wants THIS to continue!! HE might want to be played a fool, but I know I sure as hell don't want to be!!! WAKE UP AMERICA we are going bankrupt as HIS MASSES GROW!!!!! God help us all!
USA Smash!
Kidding, I agree with you.
I will worry until November 4th when I hear him declared as the next President of the US and even then I wont stop worry I'd worry more for his safety.
Carol
I fear you may be onto something. Living in KS, we Democrats are used to playing the part of the redheaded stepchild, but I could be on my way to where ever I'm needed for the mob scene to force the recount.
God. How do these people live with themselves let alone think of themselves as Americans and patriots?
They don't. The claim to patriotism is as false as the voter fraud actions. They are Americans by accident of birth. They would use the same (or worse) tactics if they had found themselves citizens somewhere else. The cause is greed, not common good.
Exactly.
Republicans are not patriots.
They're nationalists.
You underestimate Senator O*bama; I guess you didn't see, hear or read about how he got to be a state senator, huh? He may be well-mannered, affable, charismatic, etc but he's nobody's fool.
(HateLieCheatKillRepubWat)
I agree.
That Senator Obama is nobody's fool.
Obama my not be anybodies fool, but the American people are the Republicans fools.
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