Greetings from New Jersey: A Punditry Travel Guide to Obama's Visit

President Barack Obama will arrive in New Jersey to campaign for Governor Jon Corzine on Thursday, and he's bringing the chattering classes along with him.

Now, this is a big country and the White House press corps has a lot to cover. Sotomayor, health care, Afghanistan -- who has time to keep up with New Jersey politics? As a result, we're going to see some generalizations made about the race that hold absolutely no water.

So here's a simple guide to what's really going on in the Garden State.

1) Corzine Is Getting His Ass Kicked.
This is an easy one that even the most cursory follower of NJ politics knows. Which leads to....

2) It's Not Obama's Fault.
As much as some would like to believe (I'm looking at you, Sean Hannity circa February), Corzine's bad poll numbers are not a verdict on President Obama's handling of the economy. A lot of polls have been done over the course of this year, and the last time one showed Corzine winning, George W. Bush was still president.

3) It's All Jon Corzine's Fault.
And I mean 'fault' in the least nefarious way. This is a real shoot-the-messenger scenario. Governor Corzine lost his footing back in 2007 with his failed plan to monetize the state's toll roads. He was trying to get New Jersey's fiscal policy back on solid ground after gross mismanagement by Christie Whitman and Jim McGreevey, but the idea of higher tolls caused a revolt. The plan fell apart, and he's been forced to cut services and raise taxes. It's been a tough few years, and his approval rating shows it.

4) Chris Christie Is Not Beating Jon Corzine.
Jon Corzine is beating Jon Corzine. Republican Chris Christie is no great candidate. In spite of his good record for convicting corrupt politicians, he marred his tenure as U.S. Attorney by handing out millions in contracts to cronies, causing the Justice Department to issue new guidelines. Not to mention the still unanswered questions about politicizing the powers of his office.... But none of that matters to voters because this race is about Jon Corzine.

5) The GOP Might Be Due a Win.
It's been 12 years since a Republican won a statewide race in New Jersey -- the longest ongoing GOP dry spell of any state in the nation. New Jersey has also been on a long contrarian streak. The last time the Garden State elected a governor from the same party as the president was 1985.

6) This Race Is Not Over Yet.
Another simple one: the experts agree that Corzine can still make a comeback. If he does, it'll be a great victory for him, and if he doesn't, well... he tried his best. President Obama is certainly a big help: as of last week, 52,000 -- repeat: 52,000 -- RSVP'ed for Thursday's rally. That's a lot of new e-mail addresses for the Corzine listserv.

And finally, dear pundits, try a pork roll and egg sandwich. You won't regret it.

Follow John R. Bohrer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JRBwrites

Comments

[TJCole]

God I know NJ Well, grew up there, and had to flee it due to the likes of Alito and Chetoff and their goons.. it is replete with systemic corruption­...!

[lilj80]

This is my first time on the Huffington Post, and I'm glad I came here. I cannot believe the mindless, uninformed drivel coming from some of the posters here. EdinNJ, you are honestly what is wrong with New Jersey. It would be a great thing if the voters in this state actually chose a candidate based on something other than their "face and build". Unbelievable. Shubes61..­..are you serious?? New Jersey is quickly going the way of California. Stick around. We'll be there before you know it.

[Citygirllost]

Oh how I miss pork roll since I moved to PA.

[Bruce388]

Frank Lautenberg would know how to campaign against Christie -- remind people how Christie launched an "investigation" of Senator Menendez about a week before his election. Of course, the investigation went nowhere. A play right out of the Karl Rove handbook on a permanent Repug majority.

History does repeat itself, at least in NJ. Florio tried to clean up Kean's fiscal mess and got tossed out, and as Bohrer points out, Corzine's paying for the fiscal malfeasance of Whitman and McGreevey.

[toochie]

Don't worry John, the corrupt New Jersey political machine will prevail in the end. Tony Soprano could win as a Democrat in NJ.

[Oldsop]

....oh that's right; how could I forget. The thing I miss most is real hard rolls.

[Oldsop]

When I moved out of NJ some years ago the things I miss most were Taylor ham and Wise Potato chips. Next were real deli's and real pizza. Sigh.

[Citygirllost]

I am right there with you. How could all of those wonderful things not make the trek across the Delaware into PA, where I now reside.

Oh Taylor Ham, how I miss you.

[SamEllison]

Just make sure you squeeze the grease out of the sandwich!

[SamEllison]

Might I suggest the locally grown tomato with fresh mozzarella, maybe a little prosciutto.

And we got blueberries!

[eleutheros]

You also need some home fries and cheese on that sandwich. And of course, it should be on a hard roll topped with catsup.

[superbowl3]

Corzine is the worst. President Obama is wasting his time.

[LeonBNJ]

The big problem for Gov. Corzine to get reelected is taxes, especially ever higher state and local property tax rates during his governorship.
NJ has the highest local property taxes, the primary source of revenues for local schools in the state, in the USA. Too many in this state losing jobs, incomes, facing higher costs of living and collasped housing prices are angry and are desprite to cut taxes and state spending and will vote for Christie as bad as he is as is a Republican and they say they will cut taxes and spending - even if they really don't.

[shubes61]

i'm going to the rally tomorrow, and voting for corzine in november..­. so psyched to see the president in the flesh... and glad that NJ didn't go the way of california.

[sempronia]

do you have anything on chris daggett's campaign?

[EdinNJ]

You are 100% right that this race is all about Jon Corzine. In fact, I would guess that almost every person polled is either voting for or against Corzine, and not for Christie. Most have no clue who Christie is, or even probably know what he looks like.

As we get closer to the election, more and more people will get to know Chris Christie. In addition to learning about his corruption and ties to the Bush AG scandel, they are going to see that lisping doughboy on the their TV screens over and over again and quickly realize the last thing they want to do is listen to that for 4 years. Corzine is no beauty, that's for sure, but Christie has a face and build and voice for silent radio.

Here's what Christie feels is helpful to his campaign:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPODwcCFr_8

[GiovanniJones]

"but the idea of higher tolls caused a revolt."

Do you remember when the Parkway was built? We were told that once the cost of building it was paid off there would be no more tolls. That was 50 years ago, it must be the most expensive highway ever!

[mredder4]

Then you were just gullible. Who would honestly believe that the government would willingly "give back" such a potent source of revenue? Did you? Sorry, but that's your bad on that one.

[therblig]

can't blame corz for that one. 50 years ago he was still growing up in Illinois.

and you can't really blame the state - someone obviously forgot to factor in the maintenance costs. since i rarely use the gsp, i like the fact that it's a "pay as you go" arrangement.