How Breasts (and Health Care) Swung a Governor's Race

Poor Chris Christie. The New Jersey Republican's gubernatorial campaign is being run by the same brainiacs who thought hiding Rudy Giuliani's 2008 presidential bid in Florida was the way to the GOP nomination. Maybe the third time's a charm for these wayward strategists? Unfortunately for Christie, this is only their second go-around.

Like Giuliani's doomed campaign, Christie was the early (and late) front-runner in New Jersey, sitting atop a double digit lead for a long stretch of 2009. Now the race is neck and neck -- not even 'margin of error' close; one point close according to the two latest polls.

New Jersey hasn't re-elected a Democratic governor since 1977, but if the new polls are correct, the long-unpopular Jon Corzine will pull it off. Pollsters never seem to get the state right -- the Democrats' superior turnout operation is good for at least another 3 or 4 points. That means Corzine wins.

How did this happen? Christie's campaign made a costly (perhaps fatal) error by elevating his stance on mammograms. Christie's policy allows health insurance companies to drop mammograms from their coverage plans. Corzine made a passing reference to this in one of his ads. For some reason, Christie responded with an entire commercial dedicated to his mother's experience with breast cancer and talking about how despicable Corzine is... yet he did not refute the substance of Corzine's charges. Nor did he back away from his position of dropping coverage for mammograms.

And after a summer of relentless Corzine ads attacking Christie's character, saying he had one set of rules for himself and another for everyone else, it was foolish of the Christie campaign to think that they could defuse this issue by sitting him at a kitchen table and acting indignant. Christie's lack of specificity and stubbornness did nothing but prove his duplicity and inform more people that he sides with insurance companies over New Jersey women.

Christie's mammogram policy has been one of the most prominent issues for the first half of the crucial month of October. Christie is also hurt by the emergence of independent candidate, Chris Daggett, who attracts a small coalition of voters put off by the last four years of Corzine but uncomfortable with Christie. Daggett's rise corresponds with Christie's fall, but a closer look at the numbers shows Christie's approval ratings are dropping while Corzine's are going up. Daggett may be taking his voters, but he's not making Christie less popular. What's doing that is Corzine's contrast of his mammogram policy (reform requiring coverage) against Christie's.

But Corzine could only milk the mammogram issue for so long. Now his ad team is pivoting toward painting Christie as in the pocket of the health insurance industry, which, given his position on mammograms, he clearly is.

Corzine's health care offensive goes to show that there is a new silent majority willing to put other issues aside and vote in favor of reform. And Republicans might scoff at that. 'Oh well, that's just New Jersey. Deep blue, as liberal as they come.'... Uh, wrong. We're talking about re-electing Jon Corzine, here. Jon Friggin' Corzine! The guy was politically dead five weeks ago and if the election were held today, all chances are he'd win. That's saying something.

This race has been state-centric from the start. It remains state-centric. But the mammogram issue at its core could easily be exported around the country. Members of Congress should think long and hard about this. The New Jersey governor's race was truly one for the Republicans to lose. They had the upper-hand on a whole mess of issues. And now they're staring defeat in the face. Because of health care.

Makes you wonder about the accuracy of the Washington consensus that health care reform is a detriment to Democrats in 2010 -- especially when it's re-electing one of their most chronically unpopular governors.

Follow John R. Bohrer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JRBwrites

Comments

[4real]

I will be getting up bright and early to vote NO to Christie.

[SamEllison]

We don't want Karl Rove in our Statehouse.

Christie is a Rove puppet.

[mlaiuppa]

Why do Republicans hate women?

No insurance coverage for birth control. (But men get their Viagra paid for.)

And no no insurance coverage for mammograms?

Perhaps women should just stop having sex with Republicans and see what happens. If nothing else, it will certainly reduce the Republicans starting about 20 years from now.

[anitaj]

Judging by how grumpy so many Republicans seem to be lately, it appears that many women have already taken your suggestion to heart.

[Matt Osborne - Huffpost Blogger]

I have to correct you on one thing: many insurance plans don't cover Viagra, and it's not on the Medicare formulary -- which means the men most in need of it are often paying cash, about $24 a pill.

[therblig]

"milk the mammogram"? really?

can you "probe the prostate" issue next?

[EdBradly7]

Priceless!

[FoonTheElder]

Jeez, don't give them any more ideas!

[RaceCondition]

My thoughts exactly. Favorited!

[den1953]

I hope the good people of New Jersey don't forget who and how he got in this political Gov race in the first place Carl Rove wanted him to run and that was Bush's brain can you afford another Bushie flunky running your state. Things are going to turn around soon and Gov Corzine makes the commitment to clean the past up under the Democratic party 's direction!

[lybabash]

christie has no plan whatsover. he would be a giant step backwards. i live in nj and will vote for corzine.

[Wisconsin Dave]

FORCED INSURANCE ---- HARM HEALTH -- HARM ECONOMY-- HARM MORALITY

An industry that can best be described as butcher medicine,
it now consumes and destroys 18% of GDP. And if we give it 50 million new victims,
surely it will consume and destroy over 20% of GDP. What insanity.

Most all illness is caused by a diet high in fats, average American diet being 50% fats.
And forcing 50 million people to pay health insurance is forcing them to subsidize
food addiction, actually forcing them to help others harm body, mind and morality.

We the 50 million people without health insurance, we are about the most
healthy people in America and for two reasons:

(1) Most of us for moral or religious reasons eat healthy.

(2) Having to pay medical expenses caused be food addiction is by far the best
motivation to stay healthy

[NotStarvingArtist]

Yes, poor diets can cause illness, but that is hardly the only cause of disease. Eating a low-fat diet will not protect you from all cancers, bacterial and viral infections, genetic disorders, etc. My sister was a vegetarian who was never overweight, who exercised regularly and did not drink alchohol or smoke, but she died of breast cancer anyway. If you have been lucky enough to be healthy thus far, good for you, but there is no diet that will guarantee you perfect health throughout your life. If you are uninsured now and you are struck with a catastrophic illness like breast cancer, good luck getting any insurance company to cover you once you've been diagnosed.

[babyboomerorig]

Geesh!

If everybody was able to get a yearly check-up, including blood work and, at least, X-Rays, there would be so many fewer catastrophic conditions.

If doctors had staff to stay in touch with patients who are diabetic, autistic, heart patients, etc., so much expensive hospitalization could be eliminated.

People don't always get sick because of their life style. They have genetic conditions that rear their ugly heads, accidents and conditions that have never been present in any family member since a lot of diseases have been given names.

[skippypicasso]

If you are the most physically healthy, you definitely know the least about medicine, insurance, and disease.

[brilliantatbreakfast]

Horsepuckey. My mother is 82, overweight, a lung cancer survivor, and still smoking. Her medical bills are no longer any higher than any other person her age. Her husband ate moderately, exercised, took care of himself, and died of thyroid cancer at 75.

My father is 84 and sedentary and he is fine. I am 50 pounds overweight, my blood sugar is normal and my LDL is only 130.

I'm from a good gene pool. Some are not so lucky. There is no "one size fits all" solution.

[Liberal2]

Precisely. The Albert Einstein College of Medicine is studying Ashkenazi Jews who have certain genetic mutations. These mutations allow these individuals live into their late 90s and into their 100s. Just to get into the study you have to be over 95.

Some Holocaust survivors had these mutations, enabling them to survive the conditions of those camps.

[Carl Caroli]

The republicans, as usual screwed up. No one in this state is particularly happy with Corzine - our property taxes are the highest in the country and getting higher - they just raised mine nearly 10%. Had they chosen a more progressive republican with no ties to the insurance companies and no sleazy background they probably would have taken the election. But as usual, they decided to go with a candidate with questionable financial ties and record and sank their own ship. It just goes to show the depth of their stupidity. This country needs a massive overhaul in how we fund political campaigns. We need to ban lobbyists from working with or for candidates and elected officials.

[Wisconsin Dave]

Campaign contributions from the corporate rich destroyed any hope of healthcare reform.

We need CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM to get honest politicians

We need honest politicians to get CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM.

Now do you see why we need a Mass Rebellion?

[skippypicasso]

No.

[VaguelyObscured]

Milking the mammogram issue. Seriously? Anyway, I can't see NJ electing an R this year, let alone one so truly unappealing.

[Wisconsin Dave]

Campaign contributions from the corporate rich destroyed healthcare reform.

(1) We need CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM to get honest politicians
(2) We need honest politicians to get CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM.

Now do you see why we need a Mass Rebellion?

[Blackspeare]

The mammogram issue is a red herring. All Christie will do is allow insurance carriers to have a co-pay for mammograms.

[JohnUllmann]

Great News!! Sharp tack you pulled out of this one.
...and FAIR WARNING TO REPUBLICANS - .
EITHER FIX HEALTH CARE OR GET OF THE WAY!!!.

[LadyXoc]

Christie, Corzine - no problem! I'm moving out of state.

[FHTB]

That's a solution..­.NOT!

[Stefano]

Seriously, a Goldman Sacs guy vs a Republican - everyone loses

[Blackspeare]

Smart move. All three of my kids when they went out on their own quickly left NJ. A lot smarter then I and like they say NJ is not a people state----it's a business state.

[JLee]

I'm just waiting for Cory Booker to come in and sweep that race in a few years.

[LeonBNJ]

Dagget, the Independent canidate for Governor, was endorsed by the Newark Star-Ledger, the largest circulation newspaper in New Jersey. In large part they did so over the corruption of both the Democrats and Republicans politicans in the state so a desire for someone not connected with either party. Daggert is getting about 10% of the poll numbers.
Neither Corzine (who, as a loyal Democrat who I will vote for) or Christie have really discussed with any details on how or where they would cut taxes or spending, just bashing each other over usually minor things. Corzine has probably gained from women voters in this Breast health care clash and along with his deep personal $$$'s pockets, will probably win by a narrow margin-plurality.

[mredder4]

I live in NJ and there's no way I'd vote for Christie.

[Justin Friedland]

There is always Daggett. And he is gaining much popularity­... He's got a shot with people who are sick of Corzine, and don't like Christie.

[FHTB]

I don't think he has offered enough to make me vote for him...I am not a Corzine fan, but Christie's ties to the Bush era are strong, and there is no way we are allowing a Bush lackey the chance to run NJ...not on your life.

[Sue-in-Jersey]

Let's also face the fact that Christie has got to be the least photogenic fella on the planet. Whenever I pass a billboard with that man's face on it, I cringe. He is the picture of a smug, oily fatcat. Add that to his unpopular positions on women's health and you've got a loser there.

Blame the GOP for putting this creep out there in the first place.
I think they thought the anti-Corzine vote would let them float anybody. Uh, wrong.