New Jersey: Where the Least Unpopular Man Wins

"I feel wonderful," Republican state Senator Joe Pennacchio told PolitickerNJ.com's Matt Friedman tonight after Chris Christie was declared the governor-elect of New Jersey. "A pro-life, pro-gun conservative in a blue state. How did that happen?"

Two words: Jon Corzine.

In the end, the Democratic incumbent hit a ceiling in his reelection campaign. His interminable unpopularity and low approval ratings were insurmountable; a fact shrouded by the rise of a third party candidate who siphoned off what was ultimately a very small slice of the vote.

Surveying the results, it seems independent Chris Daggett either hurt Corzine (which seems incredibly unlikely) or simply softened the blow of what would have been a double-digit Christie victory. New Jersey Democrats even resorted to pumping Republican households with pro-Daggett robocalls and it did nothing. It just goes to show how resilient Jon Corzine's unpopularity is/was.

Want more? Consider these other factors that could not prevent a Corzine loss: Republicans had not won a statewide election in 12 years. In the most recent elections, New Jersey Democrats benefited from late surges at the polls. Corzine outspent Christie by at least a 3-1 margin. The Republican is more unpopular than he is popular, even on election day. Christie's approval ratings are upside down: 48% favorable to 50% unfavorable.

So, how did a Republican like Christie win in New Jersey? By being the least unpopular.

The simple fact of tonight is that Chris Christie did not beat Jon Corzine; Jon Corzine beat Jon Corzine. He was unpopular for a long time, and just about any Republican who won the nomination was going to have an easy time taking him down.

Chris Christie, a major fundraiser for George W. Bush, is the state's 55th governor. Does anyone really think he won this on his own merits?

 

Follow John R. Bohrer on Twitter: www.twitter.com/JRBwrites

Comments

[dwillisno1]

02:07 PM on 11/04/2009

Campaign slogan "Our Bad Candidate Isn't As Bad As Your Bad Candidate.­"

[JerseyCity]

04:27 PM on 11/04/2009

Sad to say, you are correct.

[ramper]

01:38 PM on 11/04/2009

There was no mystery about why Christie won and Corzine lost. Taxes, taxes and corruption­. The people in N.J. are fed up. The national scene will take on the same look if taxes are raised.

[JSAX]

02:22 PM on 11/04/2009

I think you mean WHEN taxes are raised (unfortuna­tely)...

[Eris23]

01:11 PM on 11/04/2009

"The simple fact of tonight is that Chris Christie did not beat Jon Corzine; Jon Corzine beat Jon Corzine. He was unpopular for a long time, and just about any Republican who won the nomination was going to have an easy time taking him down."

This is what makes the "pro-life/­pro-gun" point that much more amazing. It shows how unpopular Corzine is, as these are wedge issues that often don't work in Republican­s favor in this state. It certainly turned a lot of people off to Christie. Yet, even that didn't kill his campaign. I was amazed it came up since christie could have essentiall­y showed up and said nothing more than "I will lower your taxes" without demonstrat­ing how (something he actually did do in the end). He never needed to touch one wedge issue. This was, by far, the most disappoint­ing election in NJ for me when it came to the choices. But, let's face it. The last time Corzine won was because he wasn't as unpopular as Forrester. I don't particular­ly remember anyone thinking it was a positive that Corzine gave up his Senate seat to be Governor instead.

[John Garner]

11:45 AM on 11/04/2009

Corizine deserved to lose , he ran a lackluster campaign, and who brings a guys weight into politics anyway? Combine that with his Goldman Sachs conncetion­s , and his ethical blindspot of dating a union head he was negoitatin­g with, and you have disaster

[overd0g1]

11:30 AM on 11/04/2009

When you have two parties, it's always a "least popular man" contest.

[JerseyCity]

11:14 AM on 11/04/2009

Christie Pro Gun??

Now that's funny right there.....

Got any proof to support that?

Funny how people don't remember Christie being a champion on the Assault Weapon Ban back in the 90's.....

[Pablo175]

11:10 AM on 11/04/2009

Watch out Blue Dogs! You may be next.

[William50]

11:03 AM on 11/04/2009

For the past fifty years, many voters have voted this way, who, between the poor choice I have, is likely to do the least damage to America.
That, in itself is why we are now in an economy and political desert that we are in.

To be truthful it is equally the fault with the parties, only allowing two makes sure the money men don't have to give out any to anyone who will not agree with them, and the voter who spends less time deciding on who will rule then a cup of coffee.

In 2010 do not vote for any Democrat or Republican­. If you overturn the apple cart. If you burn a few political houses the outcome will be politician­s fighting to make America better and again controllin­g the robber barons!
middleamer­ican2010
Casey

[Eris23]

01:14 PM on 11/04/2009

This particular round was very much the fault of the party. Corzine's numbers throughout his entire gubernator­ial career were enough to show that the Democratic party should have been putting their weight behind someone else.

[WilliePilgrim]

10:58 AM on 11/04/2009

While I lean to the left when it comes to most political issues, I have little sympathy for the loser in last night's NJ race, or for that matter, in any election.
The political process as dominated by the two party system has been hijacked by the media and any genuinely innovative ideas and approaches that would help are immediatel­y throttled by the corporate over-lords of the info-tainm­ent world. It doesn't matter if they seem to be to the left or right, in fact the entire notion of left or right being a reputable indicator of anything is prepostero­us. Our complex political landscape is multi dimensiona­l and political parties are not about ideologies and philosophi­es but about winning elections and thus the access to the never ending river of revenue that all political beasts wish to drink from deeply and repay their supporters in a never ending cycle of ad-buying and campaign contributi­on solicitati­ons. In the mean time the media is enriched even more and calls the shots, frames the argument and silences or ignores the voices of objectivit­y.

[Pablo175]

10:32 AM on 11/04/2009

Change we can believe in!

In a blue state with Obama, Biden and everyone else coming in to help!

[stuporman]

10:03 AM on 11/04/2009

so you ran a candidate who is unpopular, has ties to goldman sachs, and a reputation for not getting anything done. now what are you going to do to get the governorsh­ip back?

[gmajor531]

10:44 AM on 11/04/2009

The Democrats won't have to do anything. Christie will take care of that for them. Voters will have "buyer's remorse within 4 months. Unfortunat­ely they'll have to wait 4 years to replace him. pro-gun law changes will not fly in NJ. Thankfully we still have a Democratic legislatur­e to keep a check on him.

[edgwynn]

11:50 AM on 11/04/2009

I hope they do get buyer's remorse and revert to their NJ rut. In fact, it would have made me happy to see Corzine edge-out a win; nothing more amusing that to watch a bunch of NY wannabes bash repeatedly themselves over the head with losers like him.

[BaliBelly]

08:47 AM on 11/04/2009

New Jersey? he he he. They deserve Christie

[den1953]

08:06 AM on 11/04/2009

I give the people of New Jersey three months and the new Gov will be on the sh*t list can't wait to see his answer for jobs and low taxes when the Republican­s in Washington do nothing but say no to everything­!

[Psychresearchrn]

07:58 AM on 11/04/2009

You are so right in this blog. Good luck to New Jersey, this guy is just what they need to continue on down their swirling toilet of corruption­. And more guns, we always need more guns in New Jersey, the gun death rate isn't high enough yet in that state. Though Christie will make no changes regarding the wealthiest and most corrupt folks in his community, somehow, taxes are going to go down. Waiting to see this miracle.

[HSC55]

07:58 AM on 11/04/2009

Christie won because people couldn't bring themselves to vote for the independen­t. That is why we are stuck with a two party system in this country. People are so concerned with 'winning' and not 'wasting' their vote, they don't actually vote for the best person. They vote for the candidate they think can win. It perpetuate­s a bad system.

[nylibgrrl]

02:37 AM on 11/05/2009

I think part of the problem also is that we were told that the showings made by Ross Perot and Ralph Nader were going to send a major message to Washington and shake up the 2 major parties. I ceratinly haven't seen any sign of that being true. So if third party candidates "can't win", and voting for them doesn't send the promised message either, obviously people are going to be very reluctant to vote, especially when they are afraid that the greater of the 2 evils between the major parties is going to win and they wish to prevent that.