iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
John C.K. Daly

GET UPDATES FROM John C.K. Daly
 

Will the U.S. Face Blackouts as Electricity Generation Suffers in Drought?

Posted: 09/07/2012 5:19 pm

Well, it's official -- the U.S. government has acknowledged that the U.S. is in the worst drought in over 50 years, since December 1956, when about 58 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate to extreme drought.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center's "State of the Climate Drought July 2012" report,

"Based on the Palmer Drought Index, severe to extreme drought affected about 38 percent of the contiguous United States as of the end of July 2012, an increase of about 5 percent from last month... About 57 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the moderate to extreme drought categories (based on the Palmer Drought Index) at the end of July... According to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, about 63 percent of the contiguous U.S. (about 53 percent of the U.S. including Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico) was classified as experiencing moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) drought at the end of July."


Much business writing on the effects of the drought have focused on its agricultural aspects. To give but one, the hottest, driest summer since 1936 scorching the Midwest have diminished projected corn and soybean crop yields s in the Untied States for a third straight year to their lowest levels in nine years. Accordingly, the price of a bushel of corn has jumped 62 percent since 15 June and soybeans gained 32 percent in the same period.

But as consumers fret about the inevitable rise in food prices to come, the drought is unveiling another, darker threat to the American lifestyle, as it is now threatening U.S. electricity supplies.

Why?

Because virtually all power plants, whether they are nuclear, coal, or natural gas-fired, are completely dependent on water for cooling. Hydroelectric plants require continuous water flow to operate their turbines. Given the drought, many facilities are overheating and utilities are shutting them down or running their plants at lower capacity. Few Americans know (or up to this point have cared) that the country's power plants account for about half of all the water used in the United States. For every gallon of residential water used in the average U.S. household, five times more is used to provide that home with electricity via hydropower turbines and fossil fuel power plants, roughly 40,000 gallons each month.

Michael Webber, associate director of the Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Texas at Austin, is under no such illusions, stating that the summer's record high heat and drought have worked together to overtax the nation's electrical grid, adding that families use more water to power their homes than they use from their tap. Webber said, "In summer you often get a double whammy. People want their air-conditioning and drought gets worse. You have more demand for electricity and less water available to produce it. That is what we are seeing in the Midwest right now, power plants on the edge."

In July U.S. nuclear-power production hit its lowest seasonal levels in nine years as drought and heat forced Nuclear power plants from Ohio to Vermont to slow output. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman David McIntyre explained, "Heat is the main issue, because if the river is getting warmer the water going into the plant is warmer and makes it harder to cool. If the water gets too warm, you have to dial back production," McIntyre said. "That's for reactor safety, and also to regulate the temperature of discharge water, which affects aquatic life."

Nuclear is the thirstiest power source. According to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, the average NPP that generates 12.2 million megawatt hours of electricity requires far more water to cool its turbines than other power plants. NPPs "need 2,725 liters of water per megawatt hour for cooling. Coal or natural gas plants need, on average, only 1,890 and 719 liters respectively to produce the same amount of energy."

And oh, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center in its 16 August "U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook" wrote, "The Drought Outlook valid through the end of November 2012 indicates drought conditions will remain essentially unchanged in large sections of the central Mississippi Valley, the central and southwestern Great Plains, most of the High Plains, the central Rockies, the Great Basin, and parts of the Far West..." The lack of rain and the incessant heat, has also increased the need for irrigation water for farming, meaning increasing competition between the agricultural and power generation sectors for the same shrinking water "pool."

But, every cloud has a silver lining. California's Pacific Gas and Electric Co. utility, commonly known as PG&E, that provides natural gas and electricity to most of the northern two-thirds of California, from Bakersfield almost to the Oregon border, is on the case. PG&E has informed its customers that its "Diablo Canyon (nuclear) Power Plant, the largest source of generation in the utility's service area, is cooled by ocean water, not by rivers that could dry up."

Never mind the fact that by the time the Diablo Canyon NPP was completed in 1973, engineers discovered that it was several miles away from the Hosgri seismic fault, which had a 7.1 magnitude earthquake on 4 November 1927.

But ocean water as a coolant is not necessarily the answer either.

On 12 August Dominion Resources' Millstone NPP, situated on Connecticut's Niantic Bay on Long Island Sound, was forced to shut down one of two reactor units because seawater used to cool down the plant was too warm, averaging 1.7 degrees above the NRC limit of 75 degrees Fahrenheit. The Millstone NPP, which provides half of all power used in Connecticut and 12 percent in New England, was only restarted 12 days later.

The federal government is hardly known for its scaremongering tactics, but it would seem that Mother Nature is forcing Americans to belatedly consider making some lifestyle changes, as the choice seems to be devolving into energy conservation, turning down the air conditioner and digging deeper into the wallet for food costs.

It might also be time for serious national discussion about renewable energy, including wind and solar.

If the sun stops shining, all bets are off.

By. John C.K. Daly

Cross posted with Oilprice.com

John C.K Daly is the chief analyst at the energy news site Oilprice.com. Dr. Daly received his Ph.D. in 1986 from the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London.

Follow Oilprice.com on Twitter @OilandEnergy and join us on Facebook.

To stay on top of important articles and research with our free private members service, sign up to the Oilprice.com Intelligence Report here.

 

Follow John C.K. Daly on Twitter: www.twitter.com/oilandenergy

FOLLOW GREEN
Well, it's official -- the U.S. government has acknowledged that the U.S. is in the worst drought in over 50 years, since December 1956, when about 58 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate to...
Well, it's official -- the U.S. government has acknowledged that the U.S. is in the worst drought in over 50 years, since December 1956, when about 58 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate to...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 40
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
photo
artleads
Let's have a national retreat.
04:30 PM on 09/11/2012
Most urban communities are ecological dead zones. These are the places where trees should be planted, solar installed, vines run up walls, birds let in, food grown. It is much more efficient to site energy plants in urban communities, without having to wastefully and destructively transmit energy along hundreds of miles of grids. And urban forests that clean air, provide food, and moderate temperature are actually part of the energy equation.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:57 PM on 09/10/2012
Too bad that the ONLY "solutions" that are getting any attention or any money are Big Energy "solutions," including Big Solar and Big Wind, which kill ecosystems and in the case of the former, STILL waste billions of gallons of water when sited in our deserts instead of on our rooftops, where they would also reduce cooling loads by 38%!

Lateral moves from one giant, wilderness-killing Chevron energy to another giant, wilderness-killing Chevron energy is a net loss for the planet, democracy and the economy. We have a rare opportunity to not only diversify and strengthen our grid, but to democratize it while improving our economy exponentially, but it depends entirely on the proven solution of feed in tariffs so that regular families and businesses who install rooftop/parking lot solar onsite, are paid fairly for that local, high-value power.

This simple, extremely successful solution will not only lower energy prices for everyone, but will create more and better-paid (safer) jobs, will improve slumping property values, will increase energy conservation and efficiency and will inject literally BILLIONS of dollars INTO communities that currently see those billions being sucked out by Big Energy.

We are at a crossroads here, will we choose to re-enslave ourselves to the Big Energy mercenaries, or will we choose democracy, efficiency, responsibility and affordability?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Mann
Nuclear Educator
12:30 PM on 09/10/2012
Nuclear power production only "borrows" the water for a short period of time, most is returned immediately to the body of water it came from, there is some evaporation, especially if "cooling towers" are used; this is the same for any thermal power plant. Nuclear energy is still the energy source with the smallest environmental "footprint" when the entire life-cycle is considered.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
aligatorhardt
Cut on the bias
04:07 AM on 09/14/2012
Water is returned to rivers heated to 95 degrees F, causing loss of fish life and increased algae and bacteria blooms. Fish are killed as they get pulled up against intake screens. The support structures for nuclear power including mining, enrichment, fuel rod production, transportation of fuel and decommissioning and waste disposal all are carbon intensive activities, and so add pollution and GW emissions. Radiation releases increase cancer rates and birth defects. Low level exposures lower immune response in the body. None of that can be considered advantageous.
Got Water? Nuclear Power Plant Cooling Water Needs

For Communities Living with Uranium Mining Contamination, Court Decision is “Slap in the Face” « Clearly New Mexico

Jones River Watershed Association claims Pilgrim power plant endangers Cape Cod Bay life - Kingston, MA - Wicked Local Kingston

Radioactive spikes at nuclear power plants

NY power plants destroy fish populations
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Michael Mann
Nuclear Educator
12:16 PM on 09/10/2012
Climate change expert calls for nuclear power 'binge' to avert global warming

Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University, warns CO2 levels are rising at a faster than exponential rate
A leading British academic has called for accelerated research into futuristic geo-engineering and a worldwide nuclear power station "binge" to avoid runaway global warming.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/sep/09/climate-change-expert-calls-for-nuclear-power-boost
06:03 PM on 09/09/2012
If we would put our resources behind it, wind could solve all energy issues...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/09/120909150446.htm

It takes leadership, and the willingness of Big Oil to diversify before they drain the last drop of oil from the earth's crust.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
aligatorhardt
Cut on the bias
05:06 PM on 09/08/2012
Greater use of wind and solar power not only saves water but saves money as well. There are no disasters, no cancers and no air pollution to pay for. In 2010 solar power became cheaper than new nuclear power and wind has been lower than all except natural gas. There will be no rising fuel prices for wind and solar. Local View: Can wind save our water? : Opinion

Renewables cheaper than coal, Michigan regulators say « Midwest Energy News

SPECIAL REPORT: U.S. EIA Data Provides State Renewable Power Generation & Price Scoreboard | Terry McDonald
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Johnangry
Outrageous statements spark good convo!!
12:47 PM on 09/09/2012
Careful, the oil industry is so incredibly evil, they'd probably try to nuke the sun. What's needed is a constitutional amendment turning these people, rightfully, into criminals. Then they could be run out of this country and into their beloved Indian Ocean country enclaves.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
03:57 PM on 09/08/2012
The best renewable source of energy is our stockpiles of nuclear energy. Born by the big bang, nuclear can provide all our power and all the power on this continent safely and securly without producing a drop of co2 waste. No other source of energy can produce as much power 24/7/365.

Development of nuclear batteries for cars and trucks will reduce our co2 output by 85% and break our dependence on foreign oil.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:02 PM on 09/08/2012
The first paragraph was funny (ha-ha), but the second one's just funny (peculiar).
Now cost it all out, and get back to us.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Johnangry
Outrageous statements spark good convo!!
12:51 PM on 09/09/2012
No. The best and most reliable source is right where you sit. If wind can produce energy by spinning something, why can the gluteus maximus through abductor hallucis not charge a home, car, or office battery the same way?
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
02:18 PM on 09/09/2012
No wind today.  Guess we'll have to go dark.
06:44 AM on 09/13/2012
Car battery? Probably not, but certainly an iPad.
04:24 AM on 09/08/2012
Mr. Daly writes - "It might also be time for serious national discussion about renewable energy, including wind and solar"

That's like running into someone who wants to start a discussion group to consider whether it is possible to build an unsinkable ship, after the ship has hit the iceberg and has a 20 degree list.

What we need is a WWII type austerity of the kind that comes from taxing the 70% so that the unempolyed can be re-employed in making solar crystals and installing rooftop solar etc. while a conservation corp lowers energy use. We need a public who sees climate change as a full blown civilization ending crisis that requires us all to pitch in, especially the upper 30%, who are supposed to be the "brightest and best". "To those who are given much, much is required."
09:40 AM on 09/08/2012
There are nuclear reactor designs that don't require a body of water as the ultimate heat sink. We don't have to live energy constrained existences.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dallasdunlap
02:21 PM on 09/08/2012
PoloniumMan - When there is one of those up and running, let us know.
ThinkCreeps
Seriously, it's time.
06:04 PM on 09/08/2012
Aahh, yes... the imaginary magical machine that Carnot couldn't conceive of...
Good luck with finding some venture capitalist dumb enough for that one....
01:01 AM on 09/08/2012
The lowest seasonal level capacity factor of 93% for nuclear will somehow be made more reliable by replacing it with less than 20% capacity factor renewables? That is some sound logic!
09:42 AM on 09/08/2012
That's Green logic.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
aligatorhardt
Cut on the bias
12:11 PM on 09/09/2012
I believe we were talking about capacity factors. But since you bring it up, no non-dispatchable energy source is cheaper than a dispachable source right now. Until we either have a smart grid or some renewable backup energy source the levelized cost of electricity does not account for the true cost of non-dispachable sources. Non-dispachable energy sources right now require conventional energy sources as backup. Until we have either a smart grid or backup energy sources , wind power does not win on cost, and with increasing market penetration the costs increase.
12:44 PM on 09/09/2012
Reliability Availability Mainainability Suitability