Jobs. Depending on how you count, the challenge is to create 7 to 10 million net new jobs in the United States over the next 5 years while keeping the 130 million people currently employed in their jobs -- a 5 to 7 percent increase in employment, the sooner the better.
We need to break the challenge down into two pieces: emergency triage, and long-term structural reform. The case for emergency triage is clear; this recession is different, for the reasons we are all familiar with.*
Even if the political will and leadership existed in Washington D.C. for a second larger stimulus, the government's ability to do what it takes has been compromised by the Wall Street induced financial crisis.
We need a hero. We need leadership from the only sector that has both the ability and the means to make a difference: big business. To suggest I'm naïve about this proposal is to be naïve about the predicament we are in. This idea crystalized for me upon reading about AT&T's pledge to repatriate 5,000 call center jobs (about 2 percent of its workforce) as part of its opening bid in negotiating with the Justice Department over its proposed T-Mobile acquisition.
Instead of whining about confidence and regulatory uncertainty, big business, which is living in relative luxury of record profitability on the back of decades of labor productivity gains, must lead. Big business depends on recovery in the largest economy in the world. It's in their self-interest to be, dare I say, patriotic. Bill O'Reilly can get the competitive juices flowing in what he will coin the "Corporate Patriots and Pin Heads" segment of his show.
Generalizations are unfair but, exceptions not withstanding, big business means mature industries where the game is primarily growth through acquisition and cost rationalization. In addition to many strong attributes, big business is good at exploiting its scale advantage by eliminating jobs or outsourcing them in the name of "productivity improvement." It is time to think outside the box. The last man standing does not mean the last man thrives.
The Fortune 500 employs about 18 million people according to my research. They can, if they chose, productively increase employment by 5 percent and create low-cost intern programs for unemployed high school and college graduates equivalent to another 5 percent -- 1.8 million jobs and 1.8 million internships within a year -- at no harm to profit margins while generating numerous long-term corporate benefits. To accomplish this, they can:
Mid sized businesses can probably achieve collectively the same as the Fortunate 500, but to be conservative let's assume only half, another 1.8 million jobs and internships.
There's your "stimulus program" that creates over 5 million jobs within a year. Add some politically feasible stimulus initiatives such as an employment tax credit to grease the wheels and funds to prevent teacher cuts and you have real "animal spirits" catalyzed by the human spirit.
Government policy should concentrate on one task: stimulating the critical long-term structural reform that the new economy will require in order to meet the profound 21st century challenge of absolute resource limits. They must:
*See www.democracycollaborative.org
**See "Debt Limit Nonsense" including Bush-appointed Secretary of Defense Gates' comment that the Navy's battle fleet "is still larger than the next 13 navies combined -- and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners."
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