Obama, The Rookie

Democrats have a habit of falling in love with candidates on the first date.

Barack Obama's comments last week - about how alienated working-class voters "cling to guns or religion" - are already famous. But the fact that his aides told the Washington Post that he is privately bewildered that anybody took offense is even more remarkable.

Democrats have been worrying about defending Mr. Obama's highly liberal voting record in a general election. Now they need to fret that he makes too many mistakes, from ignoring the Rev. Wright time bomb until the videotapes blew up in front of him, to his careless condescension towards salt-of-the-earth Democrats. Mr. Obama has a tendency to make such cultural miscues. Speaking to small-town voters in Iowa last year, he asked, "Anybody gone into Whole Foods lately and see what they charge for arugula?"

Mr. Obama is the closest thing to a rookie candidate on the national stage since Dwight Eisenhower, who was a beloved war leader. Candidates as green as Mr. Obama make first-timer mistakes under the searing scrutiny of a national campaign. Even seasoned pols don't understand how unforgiving that scrutiny can be. Ask John Kerry, who had won five statewide elections before running for president.

For all his winning ways and natural appeal to the camera, Mr. Obama hasn't really been tested in a major campaign. In 2000, then-state Sen. Obama challenged Congressman Bobby Rush, who was vulnerable after having been crushed in a bid to become mayor of Chicago. Mr. Rush, a former Black Panther, painted Mr. Obama as "inauthentic" and beat him 2-1.

In 2004, when Mr. Obama ran for the U.S. Senate, he had the good luck of watching both Blair Hull, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and Jack Ryan, the GOP nominee, self-destruct in sex scandals. Mr. Obama's eventual Republican opponent, Alan Keyes, was an unserious candidate who won the votes of only 56% of Republican voters.

Mr. Obama has prospered in Democratic primaries. But as John Harris and Jim VandeHei note in Politico.com, that's in part because these primaries have "been an exercise in self-censorship" about Mr. Obama's weaknesses. It is "indisputably true," they write, that "Obama is on the brink of the Democratic nomination without having had to confront head-on the evidence about his general election challenges."

There are many. His statements that he wants to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, combined with his lack of foreign policy experience, could hurt him. And his aides are hard pressed to come up with any deviations in a voting record the nonpartisan National Journal calls the most liberal of any U.S. Senator.

As a state legislator he was even more off-center. In 1996, he opposed the Defense of Marriage Act, which the Senate approved 85-14 and President Clinton signed into law. He twice voted "present" on a bill to ban partial-birth abortions. In 1999, he was the only state senator to oppose a law that prohibited early prison release for sex offenders.

Mr. Obama also backed a total ban on handguns, a move his campaign now says was the result of a rogue aide filling out a questionnaire. But Mr. Obama's own handwritten notes were found on the questionnaire, calling into question the campaign's version of what happened.

Everyone knows Mrs. Clinton's electoral vulnerabilities -- GOP consultant Mike Murphy jokes that "half of the country thinks she rides a broom." But Mr. Obama has shown weakness with key Democratic constituencies. He's had to fend off concerns about his Middle East policies with Jewish voters; he's also won only a third of Hispanic primary voters.

Then there is trade, where his insincerity is at least as clumsy as Mrs. Clinton's. During the San Francisco episode, Mr. Obama had a throwaway line about how working-class voters fixate on "anti-trade sentiment" in order to vent their frustrations. But isn't it Barack Obama who has been spending months stirring up "anti-trade sentiment?" He has threatened to yank the U.S. out of the North American Free Trade Agreement unless Canada and Mexico renegotiate it. Last week, he denounced the Colombia Free Trade Agreement.

According to Canadian diplomats, top Obama economic adviser Austan Goolsbee admitted to them that they could dismiss his man's anti-NAFTA rhetoric. All of this makes Democrats wonder if Mr. Obama is ready for prime time.

But they have themselves to blame for letting him get this far largely unexamined. While Republicans tend to nominate their best-known candidate from previous nomination battles (Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and now John McCain), Democrats often fall in love during a first date. They are then surprised when all the relatives don't think he's splendid.

Michael Dukakis had a healthy lead in 1988 against the elder Bush at this time and right through the political conventions. Then came the GOP's dissection of his Massachusetts record and his tank ride. Bill Clinton was able to win with only 43% of the vote in 1992, thanks in part to Ross Perot's presence as a spoiler. John Kerry had a six-point lead in the May 2004 Gallup poll over President Bush, then the wind-surfer crashed. All of those candidates had never run for national office before. Democrats paid a price for running a rookie.

Donna Brazile, Al Gore's 2000 campaign manager and an undeclared super delegate, is worried. "With the Wright controversy still lingering and now Obama's unartful comments," she told CNN, "it will paint the picture of Obama as being 'out of sync.'"

With 81% of voters telling pollsters the country is on the "wrong track," no one disputes Democrats can win in November. Still, it should be a matter of concern to them that both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama currently trail John McCain in general-election matchups. Democrats would be wise to have more debates and sharper exchanges in the remaining primaries. It may help minimize the surprises they are likely to encounter this fall.

Comments

[kavan]

Better a rookie than a Rebublican, better any Democrat over any Republican.

[in4success]

better a barn yard animal than a republican.

[NABNYC]

So Robert Novak's apprentice is now working for Hillary Clinton? So funny. This article belongs on a Fox News website, and nowhere else. I doubt the author would call any other national politician a "rookie," which sounds an awful lot like "boy," except for Barack Obama. Because it seems that the white establishment elite, the wall street boys, the Bush boys and the Clinton boys, have all found a neo-racist way to attack Obama: they don't say he's black, they just call him "boy."

And by the way, you should not misquote people. Donna Brazile may be undeclared, but everytime I have seen her she has been standing up against those who are buying into the Clinton's pro-McCain campaign, and trying to trivialize Obama by focusing on one silly thing after another. In addition to focusing on race.

I heard Bill Clinton use the "fall in love" line when he was speaking recently. He said the Democrats all fall in love in the primary, but when the candidate was picked they would all fall in line. He was wrong as well as condescending and arrogant. Democrats enthusiastically support any candidate who is not a sold-out hack of a D.C. insider lining his own pockets while sneering at the taxpayers. And I'm not getting into any line to vote for Hillary.

[jdm58]

Fellow Democrats, I hope you can develop thicker skin if you expect to win the Presidency, and down the ticket, come fall. What this blogger says about Sen. Obama is not HALF of what is being smear-mailed amongst conservatives (you should read what they're saying about his WIFE!), and is what I have been warning about for sometime now. You have to get off the hate-Hillary machine, even if she doesn't win the nomination, but especially if she magically somehow does. Otherwise, we will have a McShame presidency.

[eltoro]

In addition, it is a fallacy to argue that Jack Ryan would have been a formidable Republican contender to Obama had the sex scandal involving his ex-wife Jeri Ryan not made it into the news. Ryan was a political neophyte, and his competition in the Republican primary was far less formidable than Obama's Democratic competition. Ryan's main opponents were millionaire dairy owner Jim Oberweis (the guy who lost to Bill Foster in the special election for Denny Hastert's seat), and state senator Steve Rauschenberger, who had the endorsement of the Chicago Tribune, but little money and a meager political organization. In order for Ryan to have had the same level of competition as Obama did, Ryan's opponents would need to have included popular state treasurer Judy Baar Topinka and someone like DuPage Country State's Attorney Joe Birkett. His opponents were nowhere in that league, and yet Ryan only secured 35% of the Republican primary vote. In addition, Obama's vote totals alone were larger than the combined vote total of the Republican field combined.

[eltoro]

Obama was able to catapult to the front of the pack due to 2 factors: his decent debate performances, and the endorsement of Sheilia Simon, the daughter of the late Paul Simon. Paul Simon was a popular downstate Illinois Democrat was served as US Senator from Illinois from 1985-1997. Simon had a very liberal voting record, but was popular even with Illinois Republicans, because he was perceived to a be man of great integrity. In a superb ad crafted by David Axelrod, Sheilia Simon drew favorable parallels between her father and Obama, especially on the issue of integrity. This ad more than anything else catapulted a then obcure state senator from Hyde Park to the front of the Democratic pack, and Obama was able to win with 50% of the Democratic primary vote, which included a plurarility of the downstate vote.

[jsarets]

The pundits are in for a surprise if they continue to assume that blue-collar Americans don't harbor any seething anger about the collapse of their economic prospects and those of their children. Yeah, yeah, these are proud, hard-working patriots, but that doesn't mean that they'll be content to suck it up while their jobs are eliminated and replaced with jobs that require skills they don't have and education they can't afford or jobs that pay substantially less (often several times less). For the umpteenth time, patriotism doesn't mean unconditional support for injurious policies.

It's only a matter of time before this bizarre Utopian vision of worker/war­rior/patri­ots with an infinite capacity for self-sacrifice collapses under the weight of its own absurdity. People are bitter, they have every right to be bitter, and they won't retreat quietly into the demographic identity constructed for them by the chattering classes. Over 80% of the Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and the pundits think it's bad politics to talk about bitterness. There are two overarching generalizations of the American electorate in 2008: we're better informed than ever, and we're angrier than ever.

If Barack Obama runs on a platform of "We're mad as Hell, and we're not going to take it anymore", then he easily beats McCain's platform of "We have a moral obligation to stand by our policies, successful or not". An angry electorate will sweep Obama and other demand-side progressives into power.

[jdm58]

Oh, if he would only RUN on the platform you suggest! How meaningful it would be! As it is, he is capitulating to do what others are telling him is expected of him, in order to win. I know much of his capitulation comes from having to deal with the smearmails being circulated by conservatives (he's a closet muslim, his wife has a secret racist agenda for when she becomes First Lady, using her college thesis for proof, or now, there's one that claims he's a socialist because of some article his father wrote forty years ago), but if he stood up to the smears, then "experience" would pale next to "leadership".

[texanna]

jsarets, Edwards tried the mad-as-hell campaign strategy and got tagged as too angry whenever the corporatist media wasn't completely denigrating him with stupid haircut stories. Many times, however, there were articles written about how the American electorate doesn't want somebody to be mad, they want somebody that will make them happy. And, lo, we have Sen. Obama who does just that from all the accounts of his supporters.

[PrdAmerican]

Nice propaganda­....where'­d you study this...the school of Joseph Goebbels? He'd be proud. The real story is how could the democrats allow a know nothing coat tail rider even near the ticket. The history of the Clinton's should have disqualified her from the get go, but true to their "loyalty" they tried to push her onto the American people, only there was one problem...we don't WANT her anywhere near that house.

[Citizenofreality]

A comment on the dating habits of Republicans. They prefer the "empty suit" dates, you know, the ones who are really good at mouthing the script given to them by their corporate masters. The well known ones who look OK in front of the cameras then babble away when their teleprompters are taken away from them. I'll take our candidate, the one who knows something about the economy, the one who can tell the difference between Shia and Sunni, the one who respects the American people enough to speak to them as if they are intelligent adults. Tell your friends on the right to stop the mock outrage about the bitter comments, you are the elitists who are condescending towards the citizens of this country and we just might surprise you come this November and prove to you we aren't as stupid as you think we are.

[JimMichie]

Oh John,

I can tell you what Republicans like you are all about: you people will take it any way you can steal it--lie, lie, lie and enact laws that enrich the wealthy while driving mounting numbers of poor and middle class into still more desperate poverty. Yes, John, this country includes the "haves" like you and the rest of cooporate America and the "been hads". America is wising up to you Repubs and will no longer tolerate being had by the lot of you.

My point, John: I'll take a so-called "rookie" like Barack Obama who is honest and has a vision for all of America than some tired old Republican who refuses to release his health records and wants to continue the disastrous, destructive and insane policies of the Cheney/Bush regime.

My prediction, John: you and all the rest of the money-grubbing Repubs are going to be served up huge helpings of crow the day after the November election. Oh yeah, John, the crows as well as the chickens are coming home to roost on all you Repubs. Better wear a hat, John, unless you want to have to wash you hair every few minutes.

Cheers!

Jim Michie

[Trinidad707]

It's true Obama's Hyde Park home ws previously owned by Louis Farrakhan which suggests a much closer relationship than we are actually seeing, trying to protect the jewish vote I suppose

[rebeccaj]

Mr. Fund -- How could you possibly write this when you guys elected the Shrub?

I can't wait for our Primary to be over so we can start going after McCain. That is one of the most frustrating aspects of this long nomination process...

I want to start tearing into the war-mongering, senile, Bush Twin, flip-flopping, lobbyist-loving, heiress marrying (right after the divorce!), tax-cutting for the rich. "throw US GIs under the bus," Johnny McCain!

Oh yeah!

[thebirdstheword]

I agree. Once Obama gets the nomination, then the fun really starts. The repubs are pretty smug and have forgotten that it wasn't too long ago that mccain was a pariah to his own party. the april 9th!!! real clear politics poll still shows 26% of repubs backing huckabee. once the press stops paying attention to obama-clinton and starts really covering obama-mccain, mccain's blemishes will become bigger and bigger, and many of the loudest voices in his party just aren't too excited about him.

[Rowena]

That "rookie" has more legislative experience than the "experience" candidate, and has accomplished more of substance in one senate term than she did in two. Plus, 60% of Democrats find we have been dating Clinton just long enough to know that we're in an abusive relationship. We'd like to take refuge in a shelter for the battered, please.

[gopindrag]

He has threatened to yank the U.S. out of the North American Free Trade Agreement unless Canada and Mexico renegotiate it. Last week, he denounced the Colombia Free Trade Agreement.

So none of America's richest one percent will be voting for him.

[FogCityJohn]

Oh my! How surprising! A writer for the Wall Street Journal doesn't like Obama. I'm shocked, *shocked* to see Obama criticized by the Murdoch-owned mouthpiece of the Republican kleptocracy.

[indypete]

If I may borrow an expression I found on another post, young Barry is the candidate that scares me the least.