Support for California Gay Marriage Ban Slipping?

Jesse Helms, who died just this year, was a notoriously homophobic U.S. Senator from North Carolina. In his last couple of re-election bids, the polls always showed him losing to more liberal challengers. But he won anyway.

It was known as the "Jesse Helms effect": When a poll asks anything having to do with bias, lots of people just don't tell the truth. They don't want to admit they're biased to a pollster, or maybe even to themselves.

Any poll about gay marriage has to be viewed through this lens. So comes this update from the San Jose Mercury-News: "The Field Poll of 830 likely voters found that the share of the electorate backing Proposition 8 fell during the last two months, with 38 percent of those surveyed saying they intend to vote for the measure compared to 42 percent in early July.

"Opposition to Proposition 8 increased during the same period, the poll found. A solid majority of the likely voters--55 percent--said they would vote against the same-sex marriage ban, compared to the 51 percent who opposed the initiative in the July poll."

But wait...

"Jennifer Kerns, a spokeswoman for ProtectMarriage.com, the coalition of religious and social conservative groups that put the measure on the ballot . . . said the Yes on 8 campaign's internal polling shows voters to be much more evenly divided and the initiative's backers expect support to pick up once they start airing television commercials later this month.

"Kerns also disputed the Field Poll's accuracy, noting that in the weeks before California voters considered a gay marriage ban in March 2000, the company found support for it topping out at 53 percent. The measure--one of two marriage laws the Supreme Court overturned as unconstitutional--passed with more than 61 percent of the vote."

Optimists beware: Kerns is right. In 2000 the battle over the same-sex marriage ban was looking like a tight race, if you judged by the polls. But when the public went into the voting booth and the question was "Marriage: man and woman?" -- the answer, by a landslide, was "YES".

Comments

[KillTheMessenger]

The good thing about the gay marriage ban in CA would be that we would then see a lot of movement to replace marriage with legal civil unions. You could then get married in your own church, but if you want legal benefits, you will have to get a state issued civil union license.

And about half a century later voters will take this piece of crap out of the state constitution like they did with the other pieces of crap that were in there.

Problem solved.

[mommadona]

The only "support" for this comes from the Christian Dominionists based in the Valley hinterlands, Orange County, San Bernardino County and San Diego County.

They already live in 'compounds' of strip-mall enhanced mega-churches, never venturing very far from 'the fold'.

Everyone else is too busy trying to afford gas and rent and food.

Californians are too pragmatic to pay any attention to them, usually. It's when they 'escape' and try to carry their little 'bubbles' around in the real world that they become very irritating...like a misquitoe...bzzzzzz.

[pbcrunch]

In finance and politics I have one thing to say: "Past performance does not guarantee future results."

[pascaljim]

What bothers one is that the bulk of supporters (Money) come from out of state. California needs no help from these haters.

[milo h minderbinder]

Can out of staters contribute to help defeat this bill?

[pbcrunch]

http://www.eqca.org/site/pp.asp?c=kuLRJ9MRKrH&b=4375153

Yes.

[mommadona]

Yes.

http://thestrategycenter.org/www/Voter%20Guide%20home%20page.html

[torrrep]

It's not slipping. Everyone I know who voted against gay marriage before is voting against it again. So keep telling yourself that.

[kdogg]

yep they have nothing better to do then be hateful bastards.

[houseofglass]

What is it about non-gay people telling gay people, they can't marry who they love. Talk about control freaks! You can ban all gay marriage; you can ban all gay books and movies; you can make the word "gay" a felony - but, it will not stop your son from falling in love with a male classmate, if that's who he is! Of course you can make so much negative noise about it, that the kid would never confide the truth in you. Yea, that's it - we just don't wanna know. Wake up people!