As the new year begins and Syria lurches toward civil war, there is no logical scenario where Bashar al-Assad can legitimately hold onto power without killing many thousands more of his people than he already has. United Nations estimates of more than 5,000 dead since the uprising began in early 2011 seem quaint compared to the more than 20,000 people Assad's father, Hafez, killed over a two-week period in Hama in 1982. For his part, Bashar has just begun.
So far, the entire international community has shunned the Syrian people. The Arab League last week sent observers to Homs, the scene of horrific brutality against unarmed civilians. The observers canvassed the town, interviewed a handful of people, and reported to the press, essentially, "What atrocities? We didn't see any atrocities."
At the United Nations, the Russians and Chinese have made it clear that they will block any Security Council action against Syria, no matter how many casualties accrue. The French tried almost a year ago to raise the alarm in New York, but nobody else was willing to make a commitment and Syria is barely on the agenda there anymore.
NATO hasn't been any better. Despite some protestors in Syria going to demonstrations with signs saying, "Where is NATO?" Secretary General Anders Rasmussen said in October that the body has "no intention whatsoever" of intervening. Normal diplomatic niceties notwithstanding, Rasmussen's statement was essentially the back-of-the-hand to Syrian protestors.
The Obama Administration from the beginning of the uprising has shown that it does not have the stomach for involvement. Libya, with its pure oil and proximity to Western Europe, was one issue. Syria is an entirely different animal, although the stakes in Syria are much higher than they were in Libya.
Bashar al-Assad's downfall would shake the Iranian regime to its foundations and would isolate Iran in ways that sanctions never could. Syria is arguably Iran's closest friend and ally in the world, it is the conduit for money and weapons to Hizballah in Lebanon, and it allows Iran, its advisors and its weapons to be positioned that much closer to Israel.
So if the Arab League, the United Nations, NATO, and the U.S. have no intention of helping the Syrian people, who can? Frankly, only Turkey has the national interests, the means and the domestic political will to get the job done. Prime Minister Erdogan has expressed support for a five-kilometer "buffer zone" inside Syrian territory to protect Syrian refugees (and to stop them from flooding into Turkey, creating a humanitarian crisis and taking Turkish jobs); the Syrian opposition has asked for a 30-kilometer buffer zone.
But so far, the Turks have not proposed anything else, least of all any real assistance to the Turkey-based Free Syrian Army or the Syrian National Council that would allow them to work to overthrow Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan speaks frequently about Turkey taking its place as the region's primary power, but doesn't back it up with much more than threatening Cyprus over drilling for natural gas in the Mediterranean, training Libyan troops in Turkey and promising "assistance" for Iraq.
These actions beg the question, "Where's the beef?" If Turkey is serious about being a real regional power, it will have to take on some of the more difficult, or even intractable issues, like Syria. 2012 will likely see the fall of Bashar al-Assad, whether in an expanded popular uprising or from a bullet to the back of the head. Turkey must be on the scene if it is going to have any say in the makeup of the new Syria. The time for Turkish leadership is now. The world will soon see if Ankara is up to the task.
John Kiriakou was a CIA officer from 1990 until 2004, and senior investigator on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2009 until 2011.
"Ex-CIA officer charged with leaking information to journalists"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/23/ex-cia-officer-arrested-jounalist-leaks
If you needed evidence of misplaced priorities -- or worse -- in the international community at any level, this is it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmffgIqlAYA
Assad's government may be the only thing holding Syria together as a nation-state today. We have seen in other heavily-sectarian countries like Iraq and Lebanon what can happen when there is no strong centralized government. Far be it for me to defend autocracy though. Until the Iraqis, Lebanese and Syrians are free of external machinations to undermine independent-minded leadership, a strong regime may actually be just what the doctor ordered. I suspect that our own financial crisis will do much to inhibit our aggressive interventions in that part of the world - at which point, I can foresee a loosening of the reins by those regimes. They have an existential stake in maintaining an iron fist until we are out of the region - after that, all bets are off.
35 Kurds killed by Turks? I thought they were criminals plying their trade in the middle of a war zone, frequenting the same passes that PKK uses. Hipocracy of people who pretend to care more about the lives of Turkish citizens than Turks themselves! Worse part is you probably know the truth about this accident. So palleezzz!
Having said that, I do not see what more Turkey can do other than what it already does. Probably there is more going on than we know. Maybe a security zone if things get worse and Arab League fails completely.
and once the fuse is lit
walking away from those affected. We Americans have burned though our political capital.
We are no longer a beacon - we are a weathered billboard...with an old message barely discernable, but vividly recalled.
If you're in for a dime - you're in for a dollar.
I have no want for taking on the Syrian govt., but I have every want to not fail the Syrian people.
A security zone is very feasible and makes sense but it certainly is not the kind of thing that will make Bashar pack up and leave. If it is not so wide that it forces direct confrontation with the whole Syrian army, a zone carved out by Turkey may force Bashar to implement some real reforms. Though we all know how these things end up.
"Kiriakou Recants"
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2010/01/hbc-90006432
You must have gotten your inspiration from Egypt's smashing success.