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Four Ways to Cut the Price of Oil and Keep the Savings in the U.S.

Posted: 05/24/11 06:42 PM ET

NEW YORK -- With all the partisan debate over spending cuts in the U.S., energy policy seems to be pretty far down on everyone's agenda. That's a shame because there is probably no other single area that could have a bigger impact on the country's finances. Think of it this way: Every 10 percent reduction in the price of oil represents a $36 billion tax cut for America.

The United States imports 10 million barrels of oil a day. At a price of $100 per barrel that's $365 billion a year that the country is being "taxed" by foreign suppliers. It is an urgent national priority to reduce this cost both in financial terms and for national security. And, no, the recent drop in oil prices and promised relief at the gas pump projected for the summer doesn't change a thing. If anything, it should inspire the U.S. to act more aggressively to drive prices down further.

Fortunately, the means are at hand to make a meaningful impact on this cost and keep the savings home. Here four ways it can happen.

Hold Mideast allies to their word -- Some of the current cost may be temporary and described as a risk premium for uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly Libya. Libyan production is 1.9 million barrels per day of high quality oil, which is roughly 2.5 percent of world output of 84 million barrels a day. Eventually there is every reasonable expectation that Libyan production will come back, as Col. Qaddafi will be ousted and the oil will be quickly produced (Qatar has already indicated that they would help with the transshipment) or he will somehow survive or some kind of compromise be reached, in which case Iran or some other country will undoubtedly facilitate the sale of the oil. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has indicated that it would increase production by 3.5 million barrels a day and Kuwait has indicated they would increase production by 500,000 barrels per day to offset any shortfall from Libyan production. It is unclear whether such added supply has come on the market but it is clear that one way or the other, adequate supply and lower prices are at hand if Saudi Arabia and Kuwait keep their word. We should put the pressure on to see they do and that the markets acknowledge it.

Start leveraging natural gas to electrify vehicles -- The United States can take its massive natural gas reserves and supply them to our utilities, which are underutilized at night, to produce electric power to drive electric and hybrid vehicles. This is a multi-year program that will not be achieved instantaneously, but starting it can materially affect the current expectations and behavior of those who own oil. Historically those expectations have been for ever-increasing prices because of worldwide demand and an increased number of autos. But should those expectations be changed sellers would tend to sell. Cheating by OPEC members would tend to increase and it would be extremely difficult for the cartel to enforce its quotas. A significant failure of United States policies over the last 40 years since the first OPEC embargo has been inaction on our part to reduce demand and as a consequence expectations.

There are major side benefits to this approach. We would create a major worldwide auto industry with advanced technology and real jobs for our labor force. Much of this technology and know-how could be exported for the benefit of our companies and our country. Of course much of the natural gas would come from shale and we must carefully identify what risks that poses to the water supply and to the environment.

Increase gasoline taxes --There is little doubt a gas tax would lower demand. Any regressive aspect could be moderated by either income tax benefits or rebates to the lowest income segment of the population. Tax benefits to businesses that reduce their gasoline consumption could help ease the burden on commercial users.

Stop throwing good money after bad -- Counterproductive policy such as those involving ethanol should be abandoned. Not only do these approaches not reduce the demand for imported oil but they raise the price of corn and other food imports. The consequence of the latter plus the price of oil is an income squeeze on the lowest income parts of not just the United States but the world. The subsidies would be better spent on alternative energy sources like wind and solar that could cut demand for oil.

The fact that the U.S. is more obsessed with cutting taxes that it pays to itself than with cutting the "taxes" it pays to OPEC is a situation that must be corrected. Energy policies that address supply and demand for gasoline are the answer.

 
 
 
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06:36 AM on 05/30/2011
How about efficiency? Maybe if the top selling vehicle wasn't the F150 it might help.
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B Wood
11:55 AM on 05/26/2011
How about billing oil companies directl for defense spending related to accessing and transporting foreign oil. Milton Copulos (died 2008), the former head of the National Defense Council Foundation and previously with the conservative Heritage Foundation estimated in 2006 that foreign oil costs the US $133 billion in defense costs. Overall, the true cost of foreign oil is $825 billion. When translated to a a gallon of gas, that added up to over $11 per GALLON OF GAS ABOVE WHAT YOU PAY AT THE PUMP.

So the next time that someone tells you that alternative energy is too expensive, ask them to google up Milton Copulos.
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Overtone
See bio on the Aesop Institute website
08:29 PM on 05/25/2011
CHEAP GREEN ENERGY IS EN-ROUTE AND PROVIDES BETTER ALTERNATIVES

See Moving Beyond Oil and Energy Catalyst as well as related posts at www.aesopinstitute.org

Forget natural gas. The Energy Catalyst and competitors in the wings are safer, simpler and less expensive.

All fossil and radioactive fuels may soon prove inertial.

How fast they are superseded is an open question, but if the nation really decided to move beyond them it would surprise almost everyone to discover how rapidly that might be accomplished.
12:06 PM on 05/25/2011
Odd this man missies the one thing that would lower oil/gasoline prices. Drilling for more domestic oil.

The price of oil is in a strong nonlinear relationship with the price. During the recession the price dropped dramatically yet demand dropped less than 2%. Now the demand is back and we refuse to add to the supply which = higher prices for all.

Stupid energy policy. Not to mention the fact that gas and oil are often found together.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
02:11 PM on 05/25/2011
The demand is not there.  Just read the various papers.  
Gasoline Demand Still Falling
Reuters
02:40 PM on 05/25/2011
The market is FUTURES – months to years. The long term demand is UP and the supply flat at best. Formula for higher prices. In fact that is exactly what the market is betting will happen and its keeping oil close to 100 $/barrel. When its clear how much the demand is increasing the price will go higher – unless the world goes into another recession
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cassie reinara
02:34 PM on 05/25/2011
Pure mythology. More oil drilling even if we drilled every possible site would not bring the price down. Why? Because all the oil produced does not necessarily go directly into US markets. It goes on the world market and goes to the highest bidder. Factor in the oil speculators and you tack on another 20 to 30 percent in additional cost to the end user. Keep the speculators out of the oil market and require all oil drilled in US territories be sold in the US market ONLY and than would the US consumer see some kind of benefit. DRILL BABY DRILL is a slogan and not an energy policy. It sounds good, but is bereft of any real benefit. The oil companies and their supporters in the government would like you to believe this and if you do, you have not done your homework!
03:29 PM on 05/25/2011
The 20% is irrelevant. It’s a world market – would supply matters.
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dtairtime
It is what it is
11:58 AM on 05/25/2011
John - I'm not suprised that the biggest and also quickest way to slow our need for ever increasing foreign energy supplies isn't on your list.

It's population and it's also a touchy subject. To anyone with first grade math skills you can see the only way to control increasing demand is to stop increasing our population - at least at it's record pace.

There are several reasons why it's so unpopular to talk about population. Economics, religeon, cutlures and peoples constititional right to act like selfish clods and have lots of kids.

The easiest way to cutail our history of doubling of population every 50 years is to look at immigration. It accounts for about 80% of our growth from via one million allowed in legally, the 12 or so million here illegally and those two groups high birth rates.

The other thing we can look at are the many rewards and programs that prop up reproduction. For every child you have you pay much lower taxes, yet you burden the country more.

It's a subject few can talk about without either calling someone with my views names or implying I have ra.cist or xenophobic agendas. Due to that few have the courage to speak out about it. And no politicians have the honesty to address this issue openly.

I guess for the time being the groups pushing for one world economies, world wide redistibution of wealth and corupt governments are winning the hearts and minds of this country.
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bad spelling grammar
Help save Big Cats from extinction!
01:50 PM on 05/25/2011
Legal immigration is fine since it ads wealth and resources to country but I agree with everything else you said. I also think you should blame US citizens as well since they make up the majority of the population. If you want to slow the population growth you have to slow it down across the entire population without focusing on a specific minority. The majority of the country needs to stop having kids; it’s always the dumb people who have 5-6 kids regardless of their country of origin or citizenship.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
02:12 PM on 05/25/2011
We would all benefit if we would get rid of all the illegals here.  They have no business here.  We would not be treated like we treat them in their countries. 
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bzimmerman
11:54 AM on 05/25/2011
We pay more for a gallon of milk than for a gallon of gas. Why are we not complaining about that? And what's more, The farmer gets less per gallon than the oil company!
12:11 PM on 05/25/2011
That's because welfare recipients, Liberal voters, get their milk for free through WIC and foodstamps.
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Jack Daniels Esq
Hold the ice
11:10 AM on 05/25/2011
Buy a g****am mountain bike and watch the price of oil tank - and I mean everyone
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
vippy
Carpe Diem!
02:07 PM on 05/25/2011
Where do you live?  I would have 4 miles up the hill in 104 degree weather and no bike lanes, just a 2 lane and you know, people aim.  I would come to work smelly and no one would want to be near me.
 
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beckjr2000
been there done that & tired of it
10:14 AM on 05/25/2011
I certainly hope Mr. Levin does more research on his investment advice than he has done to Energy and Energy Costs. Good Luck getting any politician, foreign or domestic, to keep their word! Idiotic statement to begin with. Converting electric generation to natural gas would reduce not only the emissions from power plants but would also reduce costs over the longer term. Electric cars have been and still are a very expensive alternative to conventional cars. Reliability and Predictability are still big question marks but the costs are not. It's twice as expensive right out of the showroom. How will this help the poor? Oh, increase the Gas Tax! That will help the poor who can't afford a $40,000 car. Public Transportation is always available for the poor, where it's available. 50 years ago passenger trains went the way of the horse and buggy because it was not longer profitable to operate them. Today we, America, are getting ready to dump many billions into a High Speed Rail System run by our Government because France and China have one not because it makes any kind of sense. Green Energy advocates are always thinking about America's Second Class Citizens! That's how we got Ethanol! It take more energy to make ethanol than ethanol will produce! Brilliant! Not counting the corresponding effect on food prices. I can't wait to see what they will come up with next! Maybe a way to change Lead into Gold!
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
02:35 PM on 05/25/2011
So what is your recommendation? You know that oil is not an infinite resource. It is going to run out, at least cheap oil like we have now, within the lifetimes of young people today. That's why fast trains, denser population nodes, and green energy are vital for our survival. Unfortunately I am afraid that too many people will take your attitude and deny the implications of peak oil.
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dougaus1
09:29 AM on 05/25/2011
Natural gas does pose a big problem: fracking for natural gas is contaminating drinking water all across the nation. Fracking must be outlawed. Offshore wind, grid infrastructure improvements, hydropower, and solar are much better solutions than natural gas to help us electrify our vehicles. Efficiency upgrades are the most important thing we need to do to accomodate electric vehicles.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
02:14 PM on 05/25/2011
There is a lot of fracking going on in Oklahoma/Arkansas.  The man on the big CAT, when the explosive is set, needs to move 2 miles away and his C.A.T. gets thrown around like a puppet still.
No wonder they have had mini-earthquakes there.  Besides it is bad for the drinking water and we know how companies don't care. 
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06:13 PM on 05/27/2011
1500 fraced well in FT. Worth texas and the municipal water is just fine.

2.5 million fraced well world wide. A few hundred local groundwater wells (at most) compromised. Doesn't sound like a problem to me.
Konnie
PO'd PROGRESSIVE
09:08 AM on 05/25/2011
ATTENTION READERS: there is a new definition of AMERICA, AMERICANS, AMERICAN CITIZENS,
AMERICAN PEOPLE:

it only refers to the top 1% of LARGE MONEY. - that's billionaires, wall street execs, bankers, trust fund babies, and old money elite.

the other 99% are apparently only useful as ballot handlers, cannon fodder, and servicers. so when
someone is pontificating about what the "american people" want or expect and desire or need
that's who they are talking about. so if that isn't your income range - you know the pontificator
ain't talkin bout ya'll.
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mlaiuppa
Pres. Sarcasm Society. Like we need your approval.
03:02 AM on 05/25/2011
You mean, like taking $1.5 billion from fuel efficient vehicles to pay for tornado damage because Republicans must preserve the Bush tax cuts and subsidies to Big Oil?
12:07 PM on 05/25/2011
You mean the tax cuts that Obama extended???
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mlaiuppa
Pres. Sarcasm Society. Like we need your approval.
10:57 PM on 05/25/2011
You mean the tax cut extension that the party of NO demanded through extortion and Obama agreed to in the spirit of bipartisanship ( and they still obstruct and vote NO on everything.)?
12:10 PM on 05/25/2011
how about 24 Billion in stimulus money to Tax cheats?
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OliverTwist
Contrarian advocate for truth and justice
11:36 PM on 05/24/2011
Many good ideas here.

But cutting the price of oil is not the ultimate goal.

Cutting the cost of energy to our society - especially the poorest - is our ultimate goal.
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
02:36 PM on 05/25/2011
Converting to sustainable energy sources should be out ultimate goal.
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OliverTwist
Contrarian advocate for truth and justice
06:20 PM on 05/25/2011
Sustainable is nice.

Not producing greenhouse gases is critical.
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OliverTwist
Contrarian advocate for truth and justice
11:33 PM on 05/24/2011
don't want to cut the price of oil.

Want to increase it - but not hurt consumers.

So, tax carbon fuels at the original seller.

Give the tax revenue to citizens.
12:11 PM on 05/25/2011
Taxing carbon fuels would increase the cost of everything.

Better to Tax gasoline and refund the money to consumers.
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OliverTwist
Contrarian advocate for truth and justice
06:18 PM on 05/25/2011
We need to get rid of carbon fuels and force a switch to other fuels. Making them the expensive option is a good way to do that.

That's why they need to be taxed at the maker.

That's why we need to give the tax revenue to the people who buy everything.