Dukakis, Kerry, Obama?
In the spring of 2004 I attended a roundtable media discussion with John Kerry at his campaign headquarters. This was not long after Kerry had locked down the Democratic nomination. He was incoherent, droning on in an unorganized fashion about the mistakes of the Bush administration, and various programs he'd push for. There was no concise argument on why he should be elected, and not Bush.
He clearly felt he didn't even need to make such an argument. It was obvious to Kerry that Bush was a failure. He seemed to be living in a kind of Democratic-liberal-Senate cocoon, assuming that its attitudes reflected those of the rest of the country -- or at least, 51 percent of it.
As the campaign wore on, Kerry improved. But this basic, temperamental complacency followed him throughout. We had to wait until the first debate to hear him make a good argument against the Iraq war.
I hate to pile on Obama, as everyone is doing this week. But he seems to share this same temperament: that the blunderbuss attacks coming from the other side are absurd and irrelevant to the "real issues," and thus unworthy of attention, except in rote "I will not be swiftboated" statements. And that the election will ratify what is already obvious to him, and to what he thinks is a majority of Americans.
Dukakis had the same problem. Remember this now-famous SNL sketch from 1988:
Diane Sawyer: You have fifty seconds left, Mr. Vice-President.
George Bush: Let me sum up. On track, stay the course. Thousand points of light.Diane Sawyer: Governor Dukakis. Rebuttal?
Michael Dukakis: I can't believe I'm losing to this guy!
It's amazing that Obama and his team of geniuses could look back at the campaigns of the past 20 years and not devise a strategy to deal with what they're facing now. The Obama campaign is the proverbial aircraft carrier, under attack by a swarm of kamikazes.
Or, maybe Obama really is doubling down on boring and passive. The fundamentals still favor him. And the message of the McCain attacks -- that Obama is rude, or something -- doesn't seem compelling, at least compared the GOP attacks on Dukakis or Kerry, which at least made semi-coherent arguments about leadership. (Dukakis was a down-the-line liberal running during a time of conservative ascendancy; Kerry was a creature of Washington who had trouble articulating clear positions.) It may be that Obama's apparent complacency about dumb attacks is justified -- that people won't buy it this time, that the news cycle gyrations are less important than the political universe believes them to be. We'll see.
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Al Giordano: Kerry Is the No Drama Option for Secretary of State
If Obama and Biden are seeking a pro-active and self-motivated secretary of state in harmony with their own visions, one that will command immediate respect, Kerry is looking better for the position every day.
M.S. Bellows, Jr.: Unconventional Wisdom: Obama-Kerry 2008!
Over the last few weeks, we have seen a man transformed, a man infused with energy, enthusiasm and a lightness of spirit that balance his gravitas. Kerry is inspired and inspiration is what Barack Obama needs.
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Obama as Kerry or Gore? Thing is the elections they ran in were supposed to be tough. Obama's losing the most winnable election since 1964. He's gonna be in a league of his own.
I dont think you can compare Kerry or Dukakis to Obama.
I also dont think running a campaign is as easy as everyone thinks it is.
Rove and Schmidt have a lot of experience.
As we have seen any thing can be turned back on you as an attack.
I do think the suggestions about message are good. Whats your message?
Wages down.
Prices up.
Pensions gone.
Jobs gone.
Finally someone has voiced my sentiments in an actual article on this board!!! Excellent observations John! Please add to your list Mondale in '84 and Jimmy Carter of 1980! The Republicans define the Dem nominee and the Dem nominee gets defined
Since the end of Vietnam, the Republicans have used an effective catch phrase: "the Dems are weak on defense". Roe v. Wade came on the heels of the war ending and since then the Republicans have become the party of "American and moral values". All bogus and phony! But guess what?! It has stuck in the psyche of the average American!
Why have the Dems NOT fought back to change this perception? Why do they keep electing nominees who are easy to label as elitist liberals? Why can't the media step up and tell the truth? Because even they have been cowered by the "liberal media" label. Just look at this most uncalled for/unnecessary Iraq war. The "Republicans want America to win while the Dems want America to lose". Can you believe such idiocy, such banality and sheer audacity of criminality?!
Obama and the Dems have all the facts, all the issues and 8 years of catastrophe on their side and they are still being slapped around by the shameless Republicans. ONLY Bill Clinton understood how to fight back and see what did the Dems and the media do to him in '08?
Dems deserve to lose and they have no one to blame but themselves ...
Excellent observations John! After the end of the Vietnam war, the Dems have been labeled "weak on defense". After Roe v Wade, the Republicans became the party of "American and moral values". Anyone who criticizes the Republicans is part of the "liberal media". All Dem nominees are "out-of-touch elitist liberals". The most disasterous Iraq war is now a clarion call for "spreading freedom and democracy in the world" which "the Dems want to lose while the Republicans want to win". Shameless crap but perceived "reality"!!!
Every four years, the Republicans bash and the Republicans define. Every four years, the Dems get bashed and the Dems get defined. The one Dem that became the only 2 term President since FDR was shabbily shunned this primary season by both the DNC and the media. The first "black President" soon became a "racist and a raving lunatic" ... go figure ...
The one who won the popular vote, all major demographics and the popular vote, Hillary, was superceded by the "super delegates" for a new "hope for the Dem party", the one who would bring about "change", the one with no experience and no track record was now the Dems best bet?!
The Dems will probably lose again, and just as in '80/'84/'88/2000 and 2004, they will have no one to blame but themselves!!!
I don't believe the comparison to Dukakis and Kerry rings true. And we are seeing him fight back. I trust him. I think he knows what he's doing. And yes, Obama supporters are going to get out and help, or continue to help in any way they can. This is not the same election as those past elections. Obama is not the same kind of candidate.
Obama / Biden are saving the best wine to the last, McCain / Palin will appear intoxicated.
McCain / Palin continue to insult the intelligence of the nation, Obama / Biden respect that intelligence!
HuffPost's Pick
I don't buy the analogies to Dukakis or Kerry. Obama is way more dynamic than either of them, and his campaign organization on the ground has been better than any I've seen in my lifetime... and that's 48 years.
As we all well know (I hope), national polls mean nothing in an electoral college system where only state results matter. The Obama camp knows that they still lead significantly in the electoral college. They know that people who are undecided at this point in any presidential campaign are, barring any major scandal in the interim, likely to stay undecided until the week before the election. They're not wasting their ammunition at this point.
Watch over the next 2-3 weeks, and you will see the Obama campaign slowly ramping up to their final assault. The McCain campaign has nothing to run on but lies and personal attacks. They are dead in the water on the issues. The only place that the GOP has any sort of broad public support is in the area of anti-terrorism, which polls show is a top issue for only 9% of Americans.
It's the economy, stupid, and once again the Dems are going to trample the GOP as Clinton did in the 90's because of the prevalence of this issue.
Also, all of us who post here for Obama are going to get up off of our butts and head down to the local Obama office and volunteer some time, right?
Sorry, but Obama will lose because of his economic policies.
Moderate Americans (the ones who decide elections) are not buying Obama's tax plan.
Increasing taxes on big business and the rich will in effect be raising taxes on the middle class. (Does anyone not believe big business will simply pass on the costs?)
The smartest thing the Republicans have done is make the argument that taxing buisnesses during a time of economic hardship would be a disaster.
Obama needs to back off his tax plan if he wants to have a chance of winning.
It's the economy stupid.
Is there any good time for republicans to tax businesses? According to some reports Americans have stashed trillions of dollars in overseas tax heavens. Trillions of dollars! Imagine that! I, nor anyone else I know have no dollars to stash anywhere. Now, perhaps if this stashed money were taxed at rates we regular stiffs pay, just perhaps, we'd not have budget deficits we have. And if we did not piss away cash plus borrow from Chinese to piss away trillions on useless wars and useless military Empire, perhaps we would have balanced budgets. Nearly two thirds of foreign corporations operating in the US pay no federal income taxes. Perhaps if they paid their fair share we would not have budget deficits.
If you or I say we won't pay any taxes we'd be in prison. Now, how does it help our nation for rich cats and rich corporations to pay no taxes or hardly any taxes? If that is good than it is good for the rest of us to pay nothing in taxes.
A civilized country costs money to run. People who do not wish to pay taxes in our commonwealth ought to move to countries that have no income taxes, like Afghanistan! There are no regulations over there, either. The perfect free enterprise system if I ever saw one. ;-)
Yep
Maverick.. A 60's TV show about a con man.
You are totally wrong. Kerry and Dukakis were much more qualified than Obama is now and had as good if not better organization to run a national campaign. It was their attitude that did them under as it may be with Obama unless he connects with everyday people. Dukakis had his unemotional reply to what are his thoughts on capital punishment if his wife is raped and killed and Kerry's had his fake smile when asked about the validity of swift boats accusations. Obama needs to show that he is a person like anyone else. One with emotions, a sense of where is the line drawn, and yes, do get passionate about his causes. Right now, it's easy to see that he's playing to the cameras and following SOPs from past Dem playbooks. He should play to his heart instead. Palin, even in her lies, we know that she's passionate about this game and doing her best which by themselves are admireable qualities. At least we know she wants the job. Does Obama?
Whether fair or not, both of them
BassMent was the "Huff pick". CTOM, you are "my pick"!!! All "Sensible Americans" will agree with your comparisons of Kerry/Dukakis vs. Obama ...
Check out the ad that Obama released today.
He IS hitting back as are our 527s.
Obama is not repeating Kerry's mistakes.
No it is not "amazing" looking back at Dukakis, Gore and Kerry and now Obama.
It is "unbelievable".
As in I don't believe it. This is not an accident.
Democrats are really the game or the con being run on the people by the fascists who rule America. Democrats are put up as the so called voice of the left, and people put their faith in them so they don't have to go out into the streets and revolt. And as the fascists would much prefer to avoid a revolution, they are pleased with this game.
We the people are starting to wake up, though it is difficult when the neocons now have such a great network of fake liberal sites to continue running this con on all Americans.
Obama will win, because the neocons know the temperature in America is getting dangerously hot. But they will make damn sure that it is no landslide victory so we all see this wimpy behavior that is so "amazing". And if Obama's lead gets too big, don't worry, Joe Biden will say something outrageous to hurt that lead.
We will be left with a thin Democratic majority which the Obama people will use as an excuse for continuing on with the fake war on terror and most Bush policies.
Democracy in America is dead.
Because it's not about strategy. It's about a sense of self-possession and naivete of understanding the American people. Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, and Obama were all self-assured of their own intelligence and the idea people will just buy into them. All these men have spent their formative years in intelligent circles over-thinking things. They are convinced people will just see Republicans are the bogus jokes they are and come running to Dems. What they don't understand is that at least the GOP speaks on their basic guttural level, lies or not. None of these Democratic candidates seem to get the point until they LOSE and show up on a news panel 18-24 months later.
And bovine America was under-thinking things.
Man, the guy falls behind in a few polls due to the GOP post-convention bounce and suddenly every wanna-be campaign manager comes out of the woodwork to tell us what's wrong with the Obama campaign and how he's destined to go the way of Kerry and Dukakis. Enough! The Obama campaign knows what they are doing, they have a plan. They beat the Clintons, remember? You don't know Obama's strategy, so just stop with the armchair quarterbacking... please. You're only hurting the cause.
Obama'sa strategy is to say they need to talk about the issues and then talk about Sarah Palin.
Wacko liberals' obsession with Sarah Palin is going to cost Obama the election.
I believe that it's worse than you think because you did not even mention Obama's pandering to the "middle" since the primaries ended. Not only does the "middle" love Palin, but the left is now turned off to Obama.
"We have seen the enemy and he is us". How sadly true. I am still bothered by "country first". Reminded me of fascist idealogy. What happened to "people first"?
Uhh... well... the people ARE the country.
One think I have noticed about McCain/Palin supporters, including, of course, Fox commentators, is that they love the quick, snappy answers those two give, no matter how untrue, cynical or absurd the comments are.
Obama tends to ramble a bit getting into his answers to questions, which I interpret as thoughtful, because his comments are honest, comprehensive, heartfelt and sensible. GOP'ers, however, whose reaction I have read in the press, heard on Fox or discussed in person with a supporter, seem to believe that Obama is not thoughtful, but rather unsure and inexperienced.
An excellent example is the Rick Warren forum. Obama's responses were thoughtful and he talked about various points of an issue while Warren sat there looking at his watch. McCain simply belted out applause lines and the audience ate it up while Warren beamed.
The electorate's attention span is about one or two sentences. (Most voters would never read this far into my comment!) and my advice to Obama is to develop more of those one-sentence applause lines if he wants to win.
Great insight! I hope the Obama campaign considers this. It's all about marketing techniques in a world of slogans and sound bites.
slogans and soundbites win elections.
with the middle ten per cent still undecided.
repubs know this demos dont have a clue
mc war is about to pull off the upset of t he year
After watching the interview on ABC last night, does anyone think Sarah Palin gives snappy answers? She was all over the map and contradicted herself several times. Which election are you watching?
Yes, it was unbelievable. I think she shot herself in the foot over and over again. She's slowly -- or maybe not so slowly -- blowing holes all through her little facade, and it's going to down like the Titanic. She was pathetically in over her head. Once people see her do that a few times, it will be all over. And McCain looks like either a fool or a grossly dishonorable man for trying to foist this neophyte off on America. Their house of cards is beginning to topple.
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