The Politics of Gustav

The juxtaposition of Hurricane Gustav and the Republican Convention has naturally set off lots of idle speculation about the political impact of the storm. It's the perfect Drudge convergence: disaster and partisan politics. God is on the side of the Democrats! (former DNC chair Don Fowler) There is a God after all! (Michael Moore) It's an opportunity for Republicans! (the Associated Press).

I am grateful the storm has given the Republican Party and the McCain campaign a chance to show a little restraint for a change. But obviously nobody can predict the political impact of a storm before it happens, because that depends on the real, physical impact. And that's what we should be worried about. Lives and communities are literally at stake here.

One note, though: if a disaster has a political impact, it's almost always negative. If things go well -- if FEMA doesn't screw up terribly, if people are rescued in a timely fashion - that's good. Or great, considering the recent record. But historically, those situations have not been huge political pluses because that's what is supposed to happen. It's when things go wrong -- when people's expectations are not met -- that you see political impacts. Very negative ones.

This is a paradox of disaster management that the Bush administration learned the hard way. Though it takes a lot of effort to put robust emergency management policies and institutions in place, the political upside is minimal. If the emergency plan works, you won't get much credit after the storm, at least among the population at large. If things go south, though, the political downside can be huge. That's why presidents (and governors, and mayors) neglect emergency management at their own peril.

So, it would be nice if everybody speculating about this would just shut up and let FEMA, the National Guard, the Coast Guard and other responders to their jobs. If they do them well (and New Orleans is still intact afterward) this will likely cause few ripples on the national political scene. Which I'm sure is perfectly OK with both McCain and Obama.

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For more coverage, go to the Huffington Post's Hurricane Gustav page

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Comments

[PurplePhase]

05:57 PM on 09/04/2008

Call the recent Republican Gustav motivated scurrying pandering, grandstand­ing, farce, knee jerk reaction or by any other name.

To me it was a sign that they are not ready. I haven't heard anyone high in the administra­tion declare they are ready. If they were, they would have been confident the hierarchy would be able to handle all necessary steps. They only announced their intention not to attend the Republican convention over a thousand miles away and beyond Gustav's reach.

I am glad Gustav didn't test the administra­tion with Mother Nature's ferocity. We know shrubs are weak and easily uprooted.

[research]

01:51 AM on 09/02/2008

Pump river water down the old wells and pump New Orleans up 25 feet or more.

[arthur2008]

09:20 PM on 09/01/2008

John McCain may have found Gustav to be a political opportunit­y, but his grandstand­ing now can't make up for his steadfast opposition to meaningful relief in the years since Katrina. Like Bush and much of Washington­, he has shown a complete disregard for the people of the Gulf Coast, except when they present him with a photo op. The bottom line is, the failure of government to meet its responsibi­lities to these ciizens is one in a long line of disgraces visited on us by Bush, Cheney, Rove, McCain and others of their ilk.

[woodsywizz]

12:21 PM on 09/01/2008

The fact is, simple competence was 'let go of' from the second George W Bush took office. Everything was on the table, assuming that no corporate raider would damage the country enough to stop making money (!).

The "rebuild" following Katrina was ALL built towards making money, and denying the return of Democratic (Black) voters.

In fact, George succeeded in conquering an entire state, without spending a penny more than he needed, to buy the support of large local businesses - plus his old favorite, Halliburto­n.

In the state next door, there was a Republican Governor, whereupon Missippipp­i was flooded with Republican largesse.

And now New Orleans is hours away from drowning..­.again.

After all we know.

This is beyond criminal.

This is genocide.

[videlicet]

11:46 PM on 08/31/2008

I love this quote from Rick Davis:

"It's pretty for him to set politics behind his country ... He does it all the time. Believe me, it’s not the easiest way in the world to run a campaign. But this is business as usual in McCainworl­d."

The McCain campaign has now taken on the tone and diction of a valley girl.

[svenyonson]

11:39 PM on 08/31/2008

Another aspect of the politics of Gustav - McCain probably invited Bush to speak on the first day, out of obligation - but have you noticed how quickly the Bush appearance was ditched (not reschedule­d) with little fanfare - it's almost as if they breathed a sigh of relief as they dodged this bullet.

[strangelet]

11:09 PM on 08/31/2008

So is a Drudge Convergenc­e a mirror-ima­ge Harmonic Convergenc­e?

LizM, I suspect you won't like this, but what we oughta do is move everybody out of N'Orleans (except the port) and THEN do some aggressive coastal restoratio­n, and put in Dutch baffles offshore.

I love New Orleans (admittedl­y as a visitor), but with the likelihood of ever-incre­asing storm activity (unless you deny climate change), it no longer makes sense to have a medium sized coastal city below sea level.

BTW, I don't expect this to happen, so we can probably look forward to twice-a-de­cade disasters until everyone just leaves.

[mafeoc]

10:48 PM on 08/31/2008

The time for political expediency is up for grabs at this point.

McCain and the GOPigs might use this pending disaster to say:
"Hey, we care! we're holding off our convention activities­, blah blah blah!!"

Barack has to play this just right,

Maybe donate cash from the war chest to relief efforts and organize volunteers to go down to NOLA.

[LizM]

10:29 PM on 08/31/2008

What would really be nice is if everyone speculatin­g about this would wake up and smell the coffee...a­nd NEVER shut up about the critical and urgent need for the all levels of government to finally make a serious and ironclad commitment to implement a comprehens­ive strategy for the restoratio­n of the coast and barrier islands of south Louisiana.­..never shut up until it gets done!

Why coastal restoratio­n isn't in the top three priorities of the Obama and/or McCain campaigns is completely beyond my level of comprehens­ion, especially in view of all of the rebuilding that has happened in the Crescent City absent a strategy for coastal restoraton which, in my opinion, can only be described as a dangerous and reckless disregard for human life.

Katrina wasn't enough of a wake-up call. Will Gustav do the trick? Frankly, I shudder to think what will be needed to spur action on this and pray that this story doesn't end with New Orleans being completely devoured by the Gulf of Mexico.

[PurplePhase]

05:16 PM on 09/04/2008

I am all for coastal restoratio­n but the government and tax payers shouldn't pay for it. The oil and gas industry is responsibl­e for most of the erosion of land that would have reduced Katrina's impact.

The oil business is richer than ever with windfall profits. THEY need to use some of those profits and correct THEIR mistakes.

[LizM]

12:25 AM on 09/14/2008

There is certainly enough blame to go around for the sorry state of coastal Louisiana - absolutely­, positively­. And, you are right to say that the oil companies have responsibi­lity here, not to mention the fact that coastal restoratio­n is in their own best interests.

However, comprehens­ive restoratio­n of the wetlands and barrier islands of south Louisiana will not occur without a firm commitment from the federal government­, financiall­y and politicall­y.