Let's just go ahead and call this thing for Barack Obama. If I've done my math correctly, I'm giving him 369 electoral votes. Clinton-esque numbers.
Now, if you have no interest in talking about the "other side" of politics, consider the above your takeaway.
Take it. Go away (but please come back some other time) while I lament the short, could-have-been-brilliant career of Sarah Palin.
Over the past eight years, the Republican Party has imploded. In this election cycle, the conservative intelligentsia has effectively split from the "base," that portion of the party that is seemingly "excited" or "energized" not by issues of war or oil or the economy but by those that forge a social wedge. Add to that the shifting demographics of America and the Republican Party's woeful inability to attract people of color, and there is a very real possibility that for the foreseeable future the Republicans will be reduced to a nonentity within politics.
The Republicans desperately need their Barack Obama.
It could have been Sarah Palin.
Could have been, except for John McCain's gut-check, Hail Mary, game-changing, unvetted decision to take an inexperienced "small town" politician and dump her on the national stage with little more than 60 days to go before votin' time.
Palin instantly struck a chord with the "don't care about nothing except 'values' portion of the party." What Palin brought to the ticket was an ability to blunt the Democrats' message of change -- personified by Obama and Hillary Clinton and even Bill Richardson on a national level -- while being able to speak the language of "values" with the GOP base.
However -- token hire that she was -- Palin 1.0 alienated Republicans who don't support affirmative action that puts the under qualified at the front of the line. (And I give those Republicans credit for at least being consistent on the question of capability.)
And no matter her folksy ways, in those 60 or so days, Palin got stung by some controversies, nontroversies and gaffes. Same as any other politician and, for that matter, anybody who's in the eye of the media storm 1,439 minutes of each day. But when all that happens on your first date with America and is further exacerbated by the Liberal-Elite-Sexist-Gotcha-Not-Pro-America-Part-Of-America media that you mostly refuse to talk to, what chance do you really have?
Truthfully, seriously, can you imagine what it might have been like if -- starting at this year's Republican National Convention, much as with Obama in 2004 -- Palin had been given a slow and thoughtful rollout? You don't have to be a Palin supporter to acknowledge -- tested, vetted and brought up to speed -- she would have been positioned to truly lead her party, as opposed to merely appearing as the illegitimate love child of Dan Quayle and Geraldine Ferraro.
That is not to say Palin couldn't be rehabilitated within the next four years. Hey, if Nixon could make a comeback...
But McCain's missteps, the taint of failure following his loss, and questions that will surely linger about the woman herself give much ammunition to those in her own party who would potentially run against her.
Palin's major hurdle in the next cycle will be explaining her "pallin' around" with the AIP, a radical organization that seeks the breakup of the United States.
That is quite a lot, and I haven't even mentioned having to live down the catchphrase "I can see Russia from my house." However, overcoming all of that -- as Reagan overcame the vapid actor tag -- is only going to make the governor all the stronger. If so, Palin 2.0 will be a force to be reckoned with.
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Palin is finished. No amount of tutoring, no amount of whitewash, rebranding or reinvention can return her to the supposedly squeaky-clean state in which she was presented to the world. Listening to the prank call by two Quebecois comedians one is struck by the number of opportunities she was given to realize that it was a hoax, opportunities she did not take because she is DUMB AS A STUMP.
One cannot do much with deadwood except to burn it, or ignore it and leave it to all the little critters that will, over time, turn it into something useful. Over a loooong time.
Sorry, I award you no points. Sarah Palin is not remotely comparable to Barack Obama on any level at all. She is ignorant, corrupt, socially 'conservative' to a degree that alienates far too much of the public... the list goes on. She is a minor leaguer who never should've been called up.
Sen. Obama's gifts are exceedingly rare. Gov. Palin's are not. Mac wrapped up his nomination in March. MARCH! He could have chosen her, kept it under wraps, and had her quickly educated to a very high level. In 60 days, you can learn almost anything. But some of this she NEVER could have learned, given a life that has largely been "unexamined" through reflective thought derived from READING. READING IS FUNDAMENTAL, JOHN RIDLEY! She couldn't have compensated for that; you either know the world, or you don't. And she doesn't. The Sarkhozy prank illustrates it perfectly. Opining for a Republican Obama doesn't change the fact that his primary asset, in addition to his keen intellect and gifted oratory speech writing, is his ability to push hard for consensus.
If Republicans, by nature, prefer wedge issues, then it will be counter-intuitive to search for a consensus builder. You guys don't know how to do that.
What damaged Palin's career, but has to some extent allowed McCain to retain some modicum of dignity is that she never, not once, chided her crowds or held them to a higher moral standard as they shouted racist epithets and other missives that were unacceptable. Had she done that, we might have seen that there was a deftness to her wielding the hatchet, and a moral compass guiding that deftness. Her failure to do so is irredeemable. She is deeply dangerous. Period. A pretty face is simply not enough.
Sarah Palin could never have been the Barrack Obama for the GOP no matter how slow she was rolled out.
Her appeal is even more narrow than Bush Jr or McCain.
Witness who all of her followers are. It is not the practical, sensible, logical, thinking segment of the GOP. It is the reactionary, anti-intellectual culture warrior base she fires up.
Americans are tired of divisive politics and non-reality-based solutions.
The era of knee-jerk opposition to any and all taxes and the Reaganesque bashing of government (of which Palin grew up on) is hardly credible in an era of disastrous unfettered markets, collapsing bridges and flooded levies.
It's time for Americans to rebuild America. It's time to focus on our own damn families.
Remember these VP nominees that lost? Take a quick look at this chart. http://www .history.c om/encyclo pedia.do?a rticleId=2 26804
Tragedy? I think not. What is tragic is that poor baby being hauled all over the country. Sarah Palin is a limited, local politician. She needs to go home and get her house
(in order. She cooked her own career by not educating herself adequately about those things that governors should be aware of. Comes from the hubris of an Alaskan mentality that excludes the lower 48. Not to mention spending too much time trying to get rid of her bro in law and flying back and forth from Wasilla to Juneau. Small potatoes, that Sarah Palin.
She cooked her career by not educating herself PERIOD! No matter what her political aspirations
are going forward I have 4 recommendations for her before making her announcement. 1) Google
your name 2) Schedule an in depth interview with Arianna Huffington 3)Repeat step one 4) Personally
apologize to every woman in America for giving them a false sense of hope.
McCain and Palin ran a despicable, ill-conceived and divisive campaign.
The 'true colours' of the republican electorate are yet again displayed for all the world to see.
The 'tragedy' if that the American people have had to endure 8 years of Palinesque governing by the likes of Bush, Rumsfeld, and Cheney.
Good riddance!
The tragedy is that Sarah Palin is going to go forward with the reinforced delusion that she is not just an average person who won the Republican fame lottery. She will have many more opportunities to fail upward like Bush and McCain. We can retire the "Peter Principle" and now talk of the "Sarah Principle".
Oh please, John! To use another pig metphor that hasn't been used much this year,
"You Can't make a Silk Purse of a sow's ear"!
Sarah Palin, like George Bush, has the signature charicteristic of being INCURIOUS, because she is simply TOO LAZY to bother to inform herself.
This trait was exhibited for the WHOLE WORLD TO SEE when, after abjectly FLUBBING the "How do you support the Bush doctrine?" question one week... she FLUBBED THE SAME DAMN QUESTION, at the very CORE of Right-Wing foreign policy ideology, a week later in her Katie Couric interview!
This is not an inconsequential shortcoming. THE BEDROCK of "Military Intelligence" is BEING ABLE TO PUT YOURSELF in the enemy's shoes." (US Navy code-breakers decoding the Japanese plans Battle of Midway the iconic example - the intel coup that SAVED the US fleet in deadly, desperate days 1942.)
Palin's SECRECY tendencies the same as Bush's... without Bush's old-stock GOP connections to back 'em up. Which is to say that she'd make Bush/Cheney's hamfisted CENSORSHIP of US media look like master surgery by comparison.
Keith Olbermann said it best in one of his rants ("Special Comments") the other night (Poor Olbermann - the one man in the "major media" who calls it like it is, night after night, no matter how raving it makes him look) - Ms. Palin is so full of herself, she just thinks she is smarter than everryone else, tsunamis of facts to the contrary be damned.
Agreed. However, if GWB and the rest of his ilk was in power this long - Palin is right in line to be the top of the Repub party. Too many people in this country do want to have people in power who reflect how they see themselves. A lot of people want to believe that they could have been President had their life been a little different (daddy was a President. ..).
It's unfortunate for the rest of us, but if she can slightly rehabilitate her image as a dunce (enter Rove...) she will be right in line for 2012 or 2016. Scary, but true.
I don't see this as a "tragedy". I see it as a blessing.
It proves that the American people are a lot smarter than the Repub party gives them credit for.
I pray that she will disappear from the Nat'l stage forever. No one likes a loser in Politics, and in 8 years she will seem 'too old'.
When Palin's husband and friends declare their own Country, Sarah can become the "Queen of Alaska".
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Well she certainly is the shot fired from Ft Sumter for the GOP. She's the catalyst that has triggered the GOP civil war. Can't wait to watch Rachel M cover that one!!!
Palin's IQ deficit is her failing, not that she was under undue scrutiny.
I wouldn't call it until AFTER the election. I have noted, however, the reason Obama pushes for so many early voters--because they can't change their mind after the truth starts to dribble out.
For Palin, the truth came out in a rush.
Pardon the pun.
it must be a very slow dribble cause there's only a few hours left.....
I simply can't think of Palin's missteps as a tragedy. Perhaps an act of grace given us by a loving God.
Palin is a religious zealot, carefully programmed as a member of a fanatical sect bent on taking power of the US and the world. She is carefully hiding this, but those in the movement recognize the code-talk and are rooting for her. Members of the sect have even bragged about her. Those who ignore this do so at the peril of us all.
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