The Tragedy of Sarah Palin

Let's just go ahead and call this thing for Barack Obama. If I've done my math correctly, I'm giving him 369 electoral votes. Clinton-esque numbers.

Now, if you have no interest in talking about the "other side" of politics, consider the above your takeaway.

Take it. Go away (but please come back some other time) while I lament the short, could-have-been-brilliant career of Sarah Palin.

Over the past eight years, the Republican Party has imploded. In this election cycle, the conservative intelligentsia has effectively split from the "base," that portion of the party that is seemingly "excited" or "energized" not by issues of war or oil or the economy but by those that forge a social wedge. Add to that the shifting demographics of America and the Republican Party's woeful inability to attract people of color, and there is a very real possibility that for the foreseeable future the Republicans will be reduced to a nonentity within politics.

The Republicans desperately need their Barack Obama.

It could have been Sarah Palin.

Could have been, except for John McCain's gut-check, Hail Mary, game-changing, unvetted decision to take an inexperienced "small town" politician and dump her on the national stage with little more than 60 days to go before votin' time.

Palin instantly struck a chord with the "don't care about nothing except 'values' portion of the party." What Palin brought to the ticket was an ability to blunt the Democrats' message of change -- personified by Obama and Hillary Clinton and even Bill Richardson on a national level -- while being able to speak the language of "values" with the GOP base.

However -- token hire that she was -- Palin 1.0 alienated Republicans who don't support affirmative action that puts the under qualified at the front of the line. (And I give those Republicans credit for at least being consistent on the question of capability.)

And no matter her folksy ways, in those 60 or so days, Palin got stung by some controversies, nontroversies and gaffes. Same as any other politician and, for that matter, anybody who's in the eye of the media storm 1,439 minutes of each day. But when all that happens on your first date with America and is further exacerbated by the Liberal-Elite-Sexist-Gotcha-Not-Pro-America-Part-Of-America media that you mostly refuse to talk to, what chance do you really have?

Truthfully, seriously, can you imagine what it might have been like if -- starting at this year's Republican National Convention, much as with Obama in 2004 -- Palin had been given a slow and thoughtful rollout? You don't have to be a Palin supporter to acknowledge -- tested, vetted and brought up to speed -- she would have been positioned to truly lead her party, as opposed to merely appearing as the illegitimate love child of Dan Quayle and Geraldine Ferraro.

That is not to say Palin couldn't be rehabilitated within the next four years. Hey, if Nixon could make a comeback...

But McCain's missteps, the taint of failure following his loss, and questions that will surely linger about the woman herself give much ammunition to those in her own party who would potentially run against her.

Palin's major hurdle in the next cycle will be explaining her "pallin' around" with the AIP, a radical organization that seeks the breakup of the United States.

That is quite a lot, and I haven't even mentioned having to live down the catchphrase "I can see Russia from my house." However, overcoming all of that -- as Reagan overcame the vapid actor tag -- is only going to make the governor all the stronger. If so, Palin 2.0 will be a force to be reckoned with.

Comments

[johninoregon]

Interesting thought, but it assumes there may be enough brain cells there to fashion a compelling Palin 2.0. It also assumes that in the wake of a McCain defeat, the Republican party will not finally splinter into factions too small to be viable in the next national election. Those things remain to be seen.

[entropy2]

Early on, I felt that S.P. was in a win-win situation. If J.M. wins, she's got it all. If he loses, she's still gotten more exposure than she could have ever dreamed of as a two-bit Podunk pol. This scary piece of work will be back.

[ajlafleche]

Now let's be fair. She never said she could see Russia from her house. She mumbled about there being an island there and you can see Russia there.

[moko2008]

Ok, well to be fair, how is that even a remotely relevant thing to mention in response to a question asking her what her (obviously non-existent) foreign policy credentials were?

Wouldn't it have been a more honest example of the "straight talk" the McCain campaign has purportedly made its brand for her to have simply said "Look, I don't have any foreign policy experience, I mean I didn't even have a passport before last year, but I'm a quick study and a great multi-tasker, so I'm confident that I can get up to speed quickly and surround myself with competent advisers"

Maybe that would have been a bit too honest a response, but it's surely better than treating the American people as if they were idiots and trying to suggest that Russia's proximity to a remote Alaskan island somehow makes her qualified in the arena of foreign affairs

[ExpatEd]

Re-read what the author said: "having to live down the catchphrase...". He's not saying that Palin said this, but that she's associated with this phrase. You have Tina Fey to thank for that. :-)

[JonW]

Nixon had many 8 years of training as VP plus time in the Senate plus he was educated,and SMART
even if he was paranoid, sneaky and the like. Palin has Zip not to mention extremist views. Plain and simple she does not nor ever will have the intellect and wisdom to be US President. If that horrible notion ever comes true, the US descent into Third World status will be accelerated a thousand fold.

[dannyo152]

In the out years, 1962-1968 (in 1962 he ran for Governor of California and lost to incumbent Pat Brown), Nixon was out there working for party candidates and built up loyalties. That's how he held off the late run for the nomination by Reagan, who was buoyed by his 1966 victory in California and supported by a Goldwater wing concerned about a Northeastern affiliated nominee.

[Tiriel]

You're right, JonW. John's comparison to Nixon was superficial. Nixon rehabilitated himself as a candidate between 1960 and 1968, but he had more ability as a politician and more sheer intelligence than Sarah does today at about the time he learned to walk and talk. From then on he only got better. In the world of politicians, Sarah is a pigmy. Nixon was a colossus.
Just so you'll know where this is coming from, I'm a lifelong Democrat and would have voted for Humphrey and McGovern if I had been old enough. But let's have no more comparisons between Sarah and Nixon as politicians.

[AngelaQuattrano]

Get serious. Palin's problem isn't that they pushed her toward the prize too fast. If they'd vetted her, they'd have come up with all the embarrassing revelations that would have saved her from steppng in front of a real live intervewer and opening her mouth, revealing that she didn't know anything and didn't seem to think that was important.

[topkatnc]

I think that the majortiy of the country will think of her as a joke. Maybe write a book or maybe a talk show host as Mary Hart of ET asked her a couple of days ago.

[shades3]

Why do so many think that Palin deserves "something" because she was brought in to perk up McCain's dying campaign?
Already she's gotton more exposure than she deserves and, though she says that all the lovely parting gifts are going to charity, I'll believe that when I see it.

As Jon Stewart said on the "Daily Show", McCain's been kidnapped by a family of GRIFTERS.
And, like the grifters they are, they will land on their feet, soon enough to take others with their act.
Don't let it be the American people.

[Thomas Murphy]

All I can say is: she must be somebody in the party's Part-Time Luhvuh....there can be no other reason why such a silly thing was done (other than her skills at cooking moose).

[wingman1]

Well argued John, except for one thing, Palin doesn't have the intellectual curiosity, intelligence, vision or diplomatic skills to lead a serious political party, and never will have. She may lead an unserious one, but that isn't what you meant is it? No, I think she was actually best employed where John McCain found her, as the Governor of a tiny state. And from all accounts she didn't do that very well either.

[mckinley]

Seconded!

[springsm]

Good grief, that sounds like the resume of GW Bush. Except for the 'tiny state'.

[ckdogs]

How can she be a force to be reckoned with when she lacks the intellectual capacity, and the basic curiousity, to understand the country's problems? They compare her "inexperience" to Obama's, or to Clinton's. The difference is brain power, and the desire to learn everything they can about the foreign policy, economics, health care. Ms. Palin can talk - and sound interesting - but she says nothing but repetitive mantras.

[RobinLandseadel]

"Palin 2.0 will be a force to be reckoned with."

I don't think so. If the Republicans attempt to roll out Palin 2.0 they will have to contend with the moderate wing of the Republican party that's bolting for Obama even as I'm typing this out. Not to mention the likes of Peggy Noonan, Christopher Hitchens and George Will who still have some pull in conservative circles. On top of that, if [I hope, I pray] Obama gets elected, the culturally disenfranchised "minorities" [who soon won't be] will have gained a voice. "Those Ones" will not relinquish their power to a would-be beauty queen with a marked streak of racism.

[NoVA forObama]

"Those Ones" will not relinquish their power to a would-be beauty queen with a marked streak of racism

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totally agree...as diverse as the US population is..going to be a huge factor...

[BlueCornMoon]

I got to see the REAL America last week.Obama had rallies in the Philadelphia suburbs & I decided to go to the one at Widener College . The crowd was large...9-10,000 they said.The rally was outside during a cold, rainy,windy nor'easter. No one left,even if they didn't have proper rain gear. There were folks of all ages,races & backgrounds:Inner city residents, business men, college professors,stay at home moms, working moms, ordinary working people,college students, teen boys in hip hop attire, groups of pals that came together, Obama volunteers who were signing up people as they stood in line,Hispanics, Asians, African Americans,parents with their kids including high schoolers,kids in strollers & elementary kids a couple of folks in wheelchairs, elderly people with canes,etc. I've never seen such diversity in a McCain crowd.
McCain was to appear somewhere that day but cancelled due to the weather.

[bekhuff]

With all due respect... ewww.

And you may be right.

But still. Ewww.

[HappyIdiot51]

Do you really believe Sarah Palin, and for that matter John McCain, give one thought towards you? NOT. They only care about their future. Why don't we just take the future they see away from them. It's not that hard.

[MinuteMan]

> However, overcoming all of that -- as Reagan overcame the vapid actor tag -- is only going to make the governor all the stronger. If so, Palin 2.0 will be a force to be reckoned with.

Palin is ignorant and proud of it. Anyone casually aware of the happenings in this country (i.e., anyone who reads a paper or otherwise makes a little effort to stay informated) knows more about what is going on than Palin. She is dangerous if allowed to call the tune, much like McCarthy and other demagogues.who can find one signature issue and exploit it ad nauseum, but eventually the shallow cynicism is revealed.

In fact, Palin is still pretty much getting a free ride though not quite as free as when it began. If on her return the Alaska legislature smells blood, that will put a merciful end to Palin's political ambitions—and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person!

[airduds]

"Informated"?

[Maria7503]

Wow, can't anyone afford to make a typo here ... spellchecker are you?