The Tragedy of Sarah Palin

Let's just go ahead and call this thing for Barack Obama. If I've done my math correctly, I'm giving him 369 electoral votes. Clinton-esque numbers.

Now, if you have no interest in talking about the "other side" of politics, consider the above your takeaway.

Take it. Go away (but please come back some other time) while I lament the short, could-have-been-brilliant career of Sarah Palin.

Over the past eight years, the Republican Party has imploded. In this election cycle, the conservative intelligentsia has effectively split from the "base," that portion of the party that is seemingly "excited" or "energized" not by issues of war or oil or the economy but by those that forge a social wedge. Add to that the shifting demographics of America and the Republican Party's woeful inability to attract people of color, and there is a very real possibility that for the foreseeable future the Republicans will be reduced to a nonentity within politics.

The Republicans desperately need their Barack Obama.

It could have been Sarah Palin.

Could have been, except for John McCain's gut-check, Hail Mary, game-changing, unvetted decision to take an inexperienced "small town" politician and dump her on the national stage with little more than 60 days to go before votin' time.

Palin instantly struck a chord with the "don't care about nothing except 'values' portion of the party." What Palin brought to the ticket was an ability to blunt the Democrats' message of change -- personified by Obama and Hillary Clinton and even Bill Richardson on a national level -- while being able to speak the language of "values" with the GOP base.

However -- token hire that she was -- Palin 1.0 alienated Republicans who don't support affirmative action that puts the under qualified at the front of the line. (And I give those Republicans credit for at least being consistent on the question of capability.)

And no matter her folksy ways, in those 60 or so days, Palin got stung by some controversies, nontroversies and gaffes. Same as any other politician and, for that matter, anybody who's in the eye of the media storm 1,439 minutes of each day. But when all that happens on your first date with America and is further exacerbated by the Liberal-Elite-Sexist-Gotcha-Not-Pro-America-Part-Of-America media that you mostly refuse to talk to, what chance do you really have?

Truthfully, seriously, can you imagine what it might have been like if -- starting at this year's Republican National Convention, much as with Obama in 2004 -- Palin had been given a slow and thoughtful rollout? You don't have to be a Palin supporter to acknowledge -- tested, vetted and brought up to speed -- she would have been positioned to truly lead her party, as opposed to merely appearing as the illegitimate love child of Dan Quayle and Geraldine Ferraro.

That is not to say Palin couldn't be rehabilitated within the next four years. Hey, if Nixon could make a comeback...

But McCain's missteps, the taint of failure following his loss, and questions that will surely linger about the woman herself give much ammunition to those in her own party who would potentially run against her.

Palin's major hurdle in the next cycle will be explaining her "pallin' around" with the AIP, a radical organization that seeks the breakup of the United States.

That is quite a lot, and I haven't even mentioned having to live down the catchphrase "I can see Russia from my house." However, overcoming all of that -- as Reagan overcame the vapid actor tag -- is only going to make the governor all the stronger. If so, Palin 2.0 will be a force to be reckoned with.

Comments

[Crit]

Are you kidding? You must be a die hard Republican... Look, I am a democrat, but I vote for the right people, not party. You cannot say that a slower or better roll-out would improve Sarah's first impression with America. People dig, the media dig, because we need to know our leaders, and no amount of lipstick will change that dog. There is too much baggage under her hood to hide much less change. She is a lightweight in any political theater. It's not fair to say she is lucky to have gotten to become Governor of Alaska, but frankly, it's a tiny pond and look generally who the fish are up there. It's definitely NOT like the rest of America. She may learn over the next four years, but America will not forget her performance this time around. I am confident that she will either disappear, or if she reappears in 2012 that she will be quickly pushed aside when fresher, smarter, more inspirational Republicans appear (god help us).

[Krikkit]

To compare Palin to Obama is laughable. Palin hasn't got a clue what is in the Constitution or even what our Rights are. Obama taught courses on the Constitution for 10 years.

Maybe the Republicans should stop focusing so much on "image" and start looking for substance in their candidates. Hiding behind symbols no longer works now that people have the greatest wealth of knowledge at their fingertips that the world has ever known.

The real tragedy of Sarah Palin is that SHE did not avail herself of this treasure trove of knowledge before she put herself forward as the Veep candidate. The second tragedy is that neither did the McCain people do even the most basic fact checking on her before they made their pick.

[sawbuck]

the only problem is that the more people see of obama, the higher his ratings go. the more people see of palin, the more of a joke she becomes.

[AnAverageAmerican]

Can someone define for me the word values? The extreme right is always using it like they own it, however it seems to lack the very things that I value, like integrity; open and honest communication; the relationship I have with family members, friends, & colleagues; privacy, and so on. But these things are subjective, personal.

What does the average American value? Does anyone really know?

Peace.

[bison1]

Were Palin's medical records released?

[lostatsea]

I don't think Palin could ever win the White House due to her extremely conservative views. She would only serve to divide this nation further and pour fuel on the fire that is the civil war between our two ideologies. Do we really want someone who advocates areal hunting of wolves as our leader? Someone who calls half the people (democrats) against America? Not gonna happen.

[AbbieHoffman2]

So as the Republican party collapses into itself, Sarah becomes their leading figure for 2012. I'm glad I have lived this long. This is better than anything I could have hoped for. A wannabe Ronnie Reagan in a skirt. Short skirt at that.

[Shake-A-Spear]

Sarah was, is, and will continue to be a lightweight. Her fifteen minutes of fame are fast coming to a close. Soon she will join Dan Quayle, John Edwards, and Geraldine Ferraro as a footnote on the page of American electoral history -- along with her sponsor, the also-ran John McCain.

[jetphixer]

Lets try this again! Palin is done FINISHED as in pass the butter for the toast.. As i see it from here Romney will emerge as the chairperson of the party I say this because of his religious beliefs, This would cut him out of any serious run for a larger office with the exception of senator from Utah, He has a good background an the knowledge to do that job very well . Palin will get the fundies part or the wedge issue part of the party. I truly feel the party will split in 2 or 3 factions an hopefully they will learn from this experience...

[maxsmom]

She is a loose cannon and he should have vetted her before picking her. Anyone that supports someone like that needs their head checked and I don't care how "cute" she is!!!

[waynep]

Wow.....Palin could have been the Obama of the Republicans? Are you kidding me?
All she would have needed is a tremendous dose of basic intelligence, a complete reeducation (or more properly education), some (any) experience in dealing with people other than those who look like herself, a opening of the mind to new and different ideas.....and on and on and on.
My well placed sources in Alaska tell me that the Alaskan people have been shocked regarding much that they have learned about Palin when the national media brought out her per diem payments for living at home, her charging of travel expenses for her family, and general misuse of her position. . . and that her days as an Alaskan politician might well be numbered, let alone a national presence. All of this and it does not include a close examination of her religious background that dominates her political positions. Look up the words Christian Dominionist and give yourself a bit of time to understand what this movement is really all about, and then start following the names and threads back to Alaska. You need to do this for yourself, because you will not believe any of us who have done this as the truth makes us sound like fanatical radicals!

[greenlightwilly]

'Christian Dominionism' - yet another serious-sounding slogan probably conjured up either by a paid Repubican 'thinker' wanting to corral some votes or by a paid Christian-right 'thinker' (which would include 'preachers') to corral up some believers who can then be passed to the Republicans as a voting block. Throw it in the stinking can with 'secular humanism', 'intelligent design' and 'end-times' - to name a few. These things work for a while and yes we should be aware of them if only to help us understand what specific fever the religious right happens to have caught at the moment. What we really need is a strong memory of the past eight years to help us guard against allowing authoritarian political extremists to get control of our government.

[miles120]

McCain and his campaign made several serious strategic blunders when choosing Palin, even if they achieved some short-term movement. It is indicative of what we might expect from a McCain administration, and it makes me shudder to think about the shape of Russia or central Asia policy under such a management team. After all, executives - whether they run companies or countries - do have to MANAGE things.

One thing that is missing from Mr. Ridley's analysis (which I did find enjoyable), is the hubris that must exist within Sarah Palin, for she accepted this situation without regard for its foreseeable consequences. It reminds me of our current President, which may not bode well for her future in this environment.

[brwnizofmine]

I don't know if anyone else noticed, but those signs yesterday with only Palin's name on them at the rallies, was no accident. That was done to put in a few people's minds that she could be at the top of the ticket. They want those people to turn out.

Cant, wait, can't wait, until this is over! Starting to lose sleep, kind of nerve wracking, it's not good to be in one of those swing states with no early voting.

[freelyb]

Mr. Ridley,

I'm not sure what you meant by a "brilliant career" in terms of Palin's potential. She is not as opportunistic and clueless as she appears in the current scenario? She shines brightly among those that value form over meaningful content?

Palin will remain popular among those that thrive on social wedging. But their numbers are dwindling as such irrationality reveals itself as downright dangerous. These are the folks that will give us the hardest time on the seriousness of global warming. And just try to convince them that population growth will have to slow. They throw a monkey wrench into any attempts to improve our educational system in terms of scientific and media literacy. Their claim to the "real" form of Christianity contorts a divine source of wisdom of real value in these troubled times, and those who disagree with them are demonized. We've seen the results of this in the "shoot now, ask questions maybe later" approach to domestic and foreign policy for past eight years.

Palin rehabilitated over time? Personality traits like introspection, and appreciation for knowledge and logic, are core attributes. It's not possible to rehabilitate someone who was never "habilitated" to them in the first place. If she manages to bridge the gap between the conservative intelligentsia and the "values" voters, a rough marriage will degrade to a union made in hell as the dichotomy grows wider. Forrest Gump loves Ann Coulter? Does "brilliant" really describe a career that promotes such a union.

[SensibleJoe]

Sarah Palin could not be a Republican Barack Obama. Obama made an effort to grow intellectually and politically over not years, but decades -- that's what makes him the intelligent, articulate, pragmatic person he is. Palin hasn't gone through that process or built up that experience yet. Her political rise in Alaska may have been meteoric, but it seems driven more by easy-bake populism than any real sense of thought or strategy -- hence her rehashing of yesteryear's wedge issues and us-versus-them rhetoric, which anyone with an ounce of awareness of his/her surroundings would realize wouldn't play in today's very different America than they did in 2000 and 2004. In that sense, for all her "we're looking toward the future, you're dwelling on the past" castigation of Obama/Biden, she was really stuck in the past and playing out of an outdated game book. To advance any further on the national stage, Palin would have a lot of growing up to do and show herself to be a thinker, not just a mouthpiece.

[emncaity]

Why? All she has to do is to appeal to the shallow and the stupid. Bush "won" two elections exactly that way.

[Intelligentia]

I will recommend a Master 's degree in foreign policy or international relations for Palin. There are some good programs on-line! At this point, she is not intellectually-in every sense of the word- ready for the big stage.

[johnie2xs]

She'd be more inclined to take a match book school in law enforcement.

[dessertsfirst]

Yes, she should, but why would she? Her track record shows that she takes short cuts to get what she wants. And it has worked. She doesn't know nor understand what it means to actually "walk the talk". It means disciplining oneself. It means a lot of hard work with rolled up sleeves over time, paying ones dues, so to speak. I don't think lipstick is involved.