McCain in 2008 = Clinton in 2012
Allow me to do a little downbeat and wet-blanket prognosticating here, a bit of bad-boy forecasting in the "worst-case" rather than the "blue-sky" register. So get out your tea leaves and/or chicken entrails and read along with me. Please, I beg you, tell me why the following scenario won't in fact obtain--I'd love to be wrong about this. But my nagging gut, unfortunately, tells me otherwise, rebutting what my heart fancies.
Here goes: Incredibly, John McCain will win in November--despite a tanking economy, a spiraling national deficit, $4.50 summer gas prices, an ongoing "debacle" in Iraq, rampant Republican corruption, eroded civil liberties, and a campaign that promises to extend many of his predecessor's wildly unpopular policies. No matter. The Democrats will blow it. On paper, you would think that they would sail into the executive office. But the old-shoe white guy tortured war hero will defeat the upstart visionary-albeit-angry black man. Don't bet the ranch on the black guy, hoping against hope.
Plain and simple, Barack Obama won't win enough swing states. MoveOn.org can't deliver them to him. Nor can Oprah. The Clinton camp isn't going to oblige him with a sudden surge of gushing enthusiasm. For that matter, a grand post-convention rapprochement and de-embittering reconciliation between the Obama and the Clinton camps won't be happening anytime soon, even though Hillary and Bill will go through the motions, making nice for public purview, paying lip service to wishing Obama well and all that. But significant numbers--just enough where it matters--of Clintonistas, centrist Democrats, moderate Republicans, and fence-sitting Independents will peel away from risky Obama as November nears.
Obama's negatives are already rising. The McCain people and their shady surrogates will certainly compound matters by deploying every form of character assassination imaginable. Much mud will be slung, and some will stick--that's the whole point of mud slinging (memo to the above-board Obama: the technique works, don't be naive). The McCain people will surely be playing the guns, God, and gay cards--and they will be claiming that Obama has some pinko, effete, elitist, defeatist, terrorist-loving, tax-loving, ultra-liberal, anti-Pledge of Allegiance, anti-Flag-lapel-pin cards up his sleeve. Oh yes, then there's the abortion trump card, too.
Whispered insinuations will be quite enough to tip the balance. The McCain strategists will provide plenty of distractions and abundant rationalizations to convince enough white folks not to vote for a black man. Period. End of story. Alas.
Hillary knows the above. She sees the primary handwriting on the wall. She's nobody's fool. She's already looking to 2012. Thus she's now pursuing a scorched earth policy for the Democratic Party. She's denouncing the activists while belittling Obama and reserving her praise for McCain. Her current strategy betrays her clear intentions: She wants McCain to win in November (though she could never admit that publicly). She's looked at the chess board and has repositioned her pieces, plotting two or three moves ahead of the current match: McCain's winning the presidency in 2008 will virtually guarantee Clinton's winning the presidency in 2012--and then again in 2016.
McCain, she reasons, won't be a two-term president. He'll do nothing about Iraq and Afghanistan, except perhaps to dig us in deeper. He might bomb Iran's nuclear facility, or at least look the other way while Israel beats us to the punch. He will continue to support tax breaks for the rich, while doing nothing to rebuild the infrastructure of the U.S. economy. He won't be leading the way into a green future. He won't be spending his limited political capital on fixing our national health policy, our national educational policy, our national retirement policy, or even our national campaign finance policy. He'll likely need to work with a Democratic Congress--but he's not amicably collaborative by nature, and he'll blow up behind the scenes the first time he doesn't get his way.
Besides, McCain just wants to be president once. That's enough to satisfy his ego. He'll be too old and too tired for a second term (one need not be ageist against all older persons in order to conclude that McCain in particular, after a tough first term, will be too decrepit to vie for a second).
Hillary has thought this through. After becoming the Big Loser Who Couldn't Reverse Bush-ism in 2008, Barack Obama will not be the party's nominee in 2012. By then, Hillary will seem as if she deserves vindication and a second chance, and her off-putting airs of entitlement and superiority will have dissipated. For 2012, however, she won't pull an Al Gore and defer graciously to other candidates. Mark my words: She'll be running. We haven't seen the last of her presidential aspirations.
I don't know exactly what my bottom line here should be. By attending ruthlessly to Obama's obvious weaknesses against McCain in the general election, I'm not suggesting that Democrats should now drop him in favor of Clinton. Nor am I pushing the idea that the specter of a Clinton resurgence in 2012 after a McCain win in 2008 will somehow scare a good number of McCain-leaning Clinton-haters back into Obama's camp for now. I suppose the lesson is simply that the Democrats shouldn't let their wistful idealism overwhelm their savvy intelligence. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. And if you find yourself forced to choose between cynicism and stupidity, don't be stupid.
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If the worst case scenario happens and McCain beats Obama in the general, I hope to shit Obama runs again in 2012 against Hillary, haha, she would be ENRAGED! Can you imagine? Not to mention she'd probably get the blame for screwing our chances in 2008 with her slash and burn tactics, time and time again throwing her own party under the bus for her political ambitions, so she would probably do far worse than Obama.
Senator Clinton has metaphorically urinated in the Democratic Party's well-water ... who, but the Clinton fanatics and the Rip Van Winkles who slept through this election cycle, would pull the lever for her?
My prognostication ... Hillary Clinton running for President in 2012 = President Jeb Bush. (ah ah ah ... before anyone starts screaming remember that Richard Nixon was left for dead after his 1960 thrashing and came back. Jeb Bush has the machinery and at least one vital swing state, Florida. in his corner)
Yes, but the republican party has a history of losing candidates coming back i.e. Nixon and Reagan, but not so for the Democratic Party. There is not history of the losing candidate coming back to win the nomination, much to win president.
I doubt the ability of Sen. Clinton to do this a second time. She has called in all the favors and connections for this run, built up throughout her and Pres. Clinton's careers - created during a lifetime in public service. As stated in other replies, she will have alienated the MoveOn base, the African American base, and most of the younger generation voting Obama will not trust her nor will they vote for her.
This plan is not feasible, and if the Clintons are actually thinking this, then they are out of touch with reality or lacking in common sense.
Instead, I would bet that she realizes that this is her only shot, and is fighting for it to the end.
I know the Clintons appear to have magical powers, but nothing would be more unlikely than a resurrection of Hillary in 2012. Already, more than half the nation loathes her. Given another four years, the generational split will be even more formidable. Her fan base is literally dying. And the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party (if there's still a party) is not going to forgive and forget. This fantasy is not going to occur.
The Democrats are going to lose in November. You're right that McCain will sling all the mud at Obama he can find and vice versa, and a lot of it will stick. It's a shame that the Democrats are so hell bent on self destruction, because the Republicans have ruined this country. Not without a little help, of course, from Dem Congresscritters, but it's mostly on Repub shoulders. Why is it so hard for the Dems to admit that John Edwards would have been the best choice, and that in '12 he'll STILL be the best choice? If the hard core Dems ever bothered to talk to an Independent or a progressive Republican, instead of treating them like idiots for not being on the Obama bandwagon, they might get a clue before November just why they're going to lose.
The article fails to take into consideration McCain's VP choice..If McCain gets elected and resigns for health reasons, the country is stuck with either President Huckabee or God forbid,President Rice, or God forbid, President Lieberman. That will have an effect on 2012, provided there's even a country left by then to be president of.
John Edwards? Are you kidding? He has less experience than BOTH Clinton and Obama. Having run for the vice presidency does not make one any more qualified than anyone else in the field. And his attempt at creating a productive class war failed, repeatedly. The only one who has any success generating the class war that Democrats so desperately need is Obama. I have no idea what the author's point was in this article. Perhaps woke up on the wrong side of the bed? He takes it as fact that Obama cannot, under any circumstances, win swing states and writes the article from that standpoint. That point is quite debateable. As for Edwards, I can't take another campaign hearing about his $400 haircuts.
I really think Edwards could relate to me when he pays $400 to cut his hair, really!
If McCain wins -- Hillary Clinton's political career will be over. The millions of new Democrats and young Obama supporters, like my son will be lost and the loyalty of African-Americans to the Party of FDR and JFK and RFK will be hurt.
If Obama wins, Hillary will either be a Supreme Court Justice or Senate Majority Leader Clinton and President Obama will usher in a new Democratic Era of peace and prosperity that will erase the International antipathy toward our country -- and deal with the war crimes, domestic decline and cynicism of the last 8 years.
Hillary better HOPE Obama wins.
Damn straight.
If Obama loses, I will know where to put the blame - and it won't be McCain or the Republican Party.
And NO, I will not forget that SHE and her husband DID THIS TO OUR COUNTRY - and destroyed the Supreme Court for maybe thirty-forty years. And that they did it for the least-honorable reason; they put themselves ahead of their country and their party.
I'm already angry at the Clintons. I'm a white woman in her 50s. (The Clinton "demographic," and I am pissed.)
HILLARY, WE WILL NOT FORGET; WE WILL NOT FORGIVE.
I think there's a possibility that Senator Clinton will not get re-elected to her Senate seat next time around.
Excellent observation. She can kiss Senate Majority Leader good-bye too. Why does she HATE Democratic activists (ie. real Democrats)?
It has been very obvious that hillary clinton would rather see John McCain win than see Obama win. It's the hillary 2012 strategy. She knows that if Obama wins in 2008 that she will NEVER be POTUS
I don't know why more people aren't catching on to this thought. As Hillary herself said in the debate she's "not dumb" and has to know the odds of clinching the nomination for herself are negligible. I honestly think she's just hoping to pull down Obama enough to make sure it's McCain because otherwise it's 2016 and she's McCain's age before she can try again.
You do realize he hasn't said that Clinton is actively trying to make Obama lose the general election, its more that it is in her best interests if he doesn't. That doesn't mean that she is going to continue to try to fight against him when he gets the nomination.
Clinton is not some monster bent on destroying the Democratic party. There is nothing she has said about Obama that would not have been raised later on by Republicans, and she hasn't been feeding them stuff to use later. They definitely already knew about it. Actually, if Obama wasn't so terrible at responding to Clinton's attacks, she would have actually helped him because he could have put these issues to rest before the general. By brushing them off and characterizing the process questions (particularly those in the unfairly maligned ABC debate) as irrelevant, Obama has done himself a great disservice. He could have maneuvered around those issues in the general because he would have allayed the voters fears. Now, by whining about how it is unfair to ask those questions, Obama has resolved nothing in the minds of many voters, and those questions are going to linger and fester until they destroy him.
I don't completely disagree with your logic about this stuff coming up sometime in the run to the White House. However, just because this garbage is labeled with the "Clinton" brand it cannot be excused by any Democrat. Would you have the same argument if Obama's and Clinton's campaign tactics were reversed with Obama. throwing REPUBLICAN talking points/negativity at Clinton as part of this DEMOCRATIC primary process?
No. You are wrong. and YES, SHE IS ACTIVELY TRYING TO MAKE OBAMA LOSE THE GENERAL.
What she is going to do:
After she has ensured that Obama is "toast" and that McCain (for whom she has already campaigned) will be president; she will ACT like she is fighting valiantly for Obama. And Bill Clinton will too. They'll look like they really want Obama to win. But they will be as fake as Hillary's Bosnia story. When Obama loses, they think the Democrats and the Independents (and lots of Republicans, actually) in the country will forgive them for what they did before Obama's nomination.
But the Clintons will not be forgiven. Ever. And you will see signs all over the country that say:
. . . "HILLARY, WE WILL NOT FORGET; WE WILL NOT FORGIVE."
And Hillary will not run again in 2012 because she will see the writing on the wall in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
This argument, set forth repeatedly by Hillary supporters is so lame. It goes as follows: A fellow democrat can say anything, ANYTHING, about her co-candidate because the Repugs will say it later. The proponents of this argument are somehow unable to fathom how markedly different it is for the attacks to come from within the party. Their reasoning is specious and lazy. Of course the Repugs plan to run a campaign! So? How does that justify giving them voluminous sound bites of a prominent democrat saying that the candidate we have put forth for president is, inter alia, a muslim, a black panther, a marxist, and not ready to commander-in-chief. If Obama loses this election, in light of everything the Dems have going for them inherently, the blame will fall squarely on her shoulders, and all right thinking people will recognize it.
See but the thing I don't understand is that why is it off-limits for Clinton to point out her opponent's weaknesses in terms of facing the Republican party machine in the general? I mean the point of the primary is to choose the best candidate and a significant part of qualifying to be the best candidate is demonstrating that you can win the general election. Clinton has weaknesses herself in terms of the attacks from the Republicans and Obama has every right to point them out, but the fact that he chooses not to doesn't mean Clinton shouldn't be allowed to go there.
Obama supporters fail to realize the difference between saying why someone shouldn't be president and why someone shouldn't be a candidate. It's admittedly a fine line, but it still exists. Clinton has said time and time again that she believes Obama would be a much better President than McCain. I mean the fact is that they are almost politically identical from a policy standpoint. She has never said that Obama would make a bad president (aside from the standard here is why I would make a better president stuff that comes up in primaries) she has only said why he would make a bad Democratic candidate for the general election because of his electability issues. The fact is that all Democrats should be worried about his chances, not that she is much better.
If McCain wins, we all need to pledge here and now that Senator Clinton's behavior will not be forgotten.
Will we forget that she has lied over and over and over again, she has given aid and comfort to our political enemies, and she has disregarding all rank and file members of the Democratic Party? If McCain wins, I and many other Democrats, will be well aware of her role in that victory.
She cares nothing for the party or the country, and is not fit represent our party, and certainly not fit to be President.
I will send money to any Democrat running against her in the primary, I will fight with my last breath against her ever being the nominee of my party. And I believe that most Democrats will feel the same.
I will be doing the same thing. And so will ALL the college students. And the African Americans.
Her political career is probably going to be over. Do you think she'll get re-elected to her NY Senate seat after destroying the entire country? I think not.
Folks, if McCain wins this fall, the Dems WILL ALSO lose Congress. Hillary will have helped the Repubs take Congress for the SECOND time.
you just made the case why Hillary Clinton will never be and should never be President of this Country-
The Clintons care more about personal ambition and power than they do the well being of this country
If this scenario happens in November - you will see a third party with the Bloomberg-
In four years - not to be cynical - the older population supporting Sen Clinton will be even older -- and they will have witnessed - hopefully not - the further deterioration of this country under John McCain --
Hillary and Bill Clinton's destructiver campaign has not only hurt the country - it has hurt both of them likely beyond repair
They may be rich in dollars - but they are now poor in support among a large group who previously revered them
This campaign will hurt Bill even more than Hillary -- after all - this was about Bill's third term anyway and that is partially what has been rejected
God help us if you are correct. I'd have to leave for the sake of my children. Even ONE McCain term will irreparably damage our country. And Hillary should know THAT.
If she is truly hoping McCain will win, she does NOT care about the country - she does NOT care about the party - she cares ONLY about Hillary Clinton.
A McCain Presidency would ensure an economy continuing to spiral and a continuing presence in Iraq and possibly a presence in Iran.
A McCain Presidency would mean a possible END not only to the idea of Universal Healthcare - but an END to the invaluable State Childrens Health Insurance Plan (SCHIP).
Finally, and most terrifying, a McCain adminstration would tip the Supreme Court very conservative with more appointments of Justices like Alito, and Roberts - THIS is not given NEARLY enough attention because it has the potential to devistate our civil rights and change our law and the way our Constitution is viewed for decades and maybe longer - just look at how far the influence of the Warren Court in the 1960's has lasted - we still clearly see its imprint on laws and decisions today.
If Hillary is willing to sacrifice my livlihood, my children and my rights on the alter of her ego - She should NOT hold the important office of President or Senator or ANY public office.
The only reason you say things against Hillary, it's because Barack Obama's campaign had constantly attacking Clinton campaign in the first place before Hillary starts to fight back. If she doesn't care about the country, why is she willing to come up with solution on Health Care plans. During her husband's administration, her approach for health care didn't work that's because not many Democrats and Republicans supported it. The only thing that was successful about the health care issues during Clinton Presidency was lift up the age limit of medical coverage for children from 18 to 21. The remaining years after 21 when they're still in college or working part time job and the work place doesn't cover any medical insurance till after they're around 25~29. Obama is to blame, false slogan Hope (sounds too religious) and Change (at the time of Dr. King's time).
hate to say it, but this is exactly my suspicion. and as ardent a supporter of obama that i am, a small, nagging part of me insists that America won't elect a black man when it comes down to the wire. but many of my preconceptions have already been blown to pieces during this primary season. so who knows.
Hillary is done.
She will be lucky to not be challenged right ouof her senate seat.
She has destroyed her chances to ever run in 2012
If Hillary Clinton succeeds in destroying Obama's chances to win the Presidency, there won't be a Democratic Party in 2012 to vote for her.
For all the work you pundits and bloggers do, none of you seem to understand how close this party is to fracturing.
And you can take that to the bank.
Get a grip. Hillary isn't destroying Obama's chances to win. He's doing that quite nicely all by himself.
Your predictions will not stand. Who would have a thought Barack, a junior senator from IL would take on the strongest most ruthless political machine built for over 20yrs and give them a run for their money? Its the oddest picture that of Bill pleading for 5, 10 $ crying they are being outspent X5 by Obama! Excuse me? Is there any laws preventing them from outspending Barack X10? What went wrong in the royal family's treasures and connections? Whether Barack wins or looses, he is a trail blazer and many other Americans whatever their backgrounds, will emerge and take the status quo head on. I bet it will be sooner than later we shall get another woman who will take the political arena by storm. Thats the unlikely story that is America
(They could spend some more of that $109 Million. . . . Perhaps the Clintons think it is far too risky to loan her campaign any more of her own money...)
Keep hope alive
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