Turkey and the Rebel Kurds: Next Move

President Bush's response to the Turkish Parliament's declaration of war against the 3,000+ rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in oil-rich northern Iraq was muted because the United States needs Turkey. The Kurdish administration in oil-rich northern Iraq seems unable to control the small number of PKK separatists, while labeling in advance any Turkish forays to strike at PKK camps as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Such forays would immensely complicate the war in Iraq and destabilize the region.

Turkey's economic needs might give it pause. Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan is as friendly a Prime Minister as the United States could hope for in a 99 percent Islamic country in the fifth year of an Iraq war that has allowed Kurdish rebels to build up in the north and to kill many Turks recently on the border. He was reelected handily this year because he has delivered strong economic growth.

When the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, the Turkish Parliament refused to allow U.S. troops to drive through to Iraq - a "low point" for U.S.-Turkish relations, although Turkey allows U.S. supplies through via Incirlik Air Base. For many Turks, the low point was months later when U.S. forces - from Turkey's perspective - dissed Turkish soldiers serving with the U.S. army in northern Iraq. These events were the basis for a hugely popular Turkish movie, "Valley of the Wolves Iraq," which stirred up anti-American sentiments.

Relations looked better last year when a U.S.-Turkish shared vision was mapped out. But the over-stretched U.S. military and The Kurds in Iraq are understandably concerned about having as a guest Turkey's half-million troops, the second-largest army in NATO and the largest army in Europe? No wonder a barrel of crude oil for November delivery hit a record price today of $90.07.

What might restrain Turkey is its ongoing need for full access to American and, even more, EU markets. Turkey would dearly love to become a full member of the EU, and many in the EU would like to see Turkey join. Turkey's textiles and apparel industry, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of Turkey's exports, is being squeezed by low-cost competition from the rest of Asia and by concerns of western, especially European, buyers about labor conditions in Turkish factories. The Turkish government has contributed to the problem by raising taxes on employment to levels well above its neighbors, where wages may be as low as one-fifth of prevailing Turkish wages.

So the best hope for calming this crisis would be a combination of a serious effort to contain the Kurdish rebels while joining the U.S. voice with that of the EU, which has also warned Turkey against violating Iraq's territorial integrity. The grave danger is that in the frayed international environment of 2007 Turkey will sooner or later respond to its very real domestic pressures and defy western wishes on the bet that they can continue to get away with going it alone.

Comments

[fourex]

It is interesting to note that no one in the MSM is calling the PKK terrorists. I'm sure the Turks do. Calling the PKK terrorists would cause big proplems at the WH animal farm where not all terrorists are terrorists.

[cognate]

The Kurds deserve their own country. Kurds are neither Arab nor Turkish but Indo-European.

There are some 15 million Kurds in Turkey, 6 million in Iran, 5 million in Iraq and 1.5 million in Syria. All together some 27 million Kurds live in a compact area that was carved out by the aforementioned states, following the demise of the Ottoman empire in 1914-21. It's successor Turkey is still the biggest occupier of Kurdistan.

It's time we stopped cozying up to the Turks. Let's also encourage them to return Mount Ararat of Noah's Ark fame to Armenia, where it belongs.

Independent Kurdistan could be the only positive consequence of Bush's otherwise stupid and disastrous interventions in the Middle East. Unintentend of course.

[Plowboy]

To solve the problem of Kurdistan requires the cooperation of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. There needs to be peace and stability within those nations and between them. Our actions are NOT contributing to that and were not calculated to do so. So we cannot do anything better for anyone there now than to get our armed forces out. This problem; like a good many others needs to be addressed within the framework of a regional agreement followed by cooperative action.
That won't be possible as long as we are there creating more animosities. And we cannot strongly influence such a development now that we are seen by most as an enemy.
The Palestinian problem can be solved more easily and we can have influence there if we act justly. That could be the new beginning for us and for the region as a whole. More wars are not the answer, but seeking peace and justice through fair negotiations might well succeed.

[Iownpeterbilt]

$90.00 crude oil, Almost a TRILLION dollars down the tube, more than 3800 U.S. soldiers killed, thousands injured, It would have been much better to buy the f***ing oil from Saddam. Now we are threatening Iran, What will be the results when our oil suppliers refuse to take our weakening dollar as payment?

Russia and China are watching as we threaten another soverign nation. Our military is worn down, dispirited and in no condition to challenge either nation. I feel we are being led down a slippery slope to obvilion..­.....

[wadenelson1]

um, you forgot to mention the 650,000 to 1M+ Iraqi's killed as part of the "cost" of this war.

[research]

Is it genocide if you kill 1M Iraqis by collateral damage? What if you lied about the reason for war in the first place? Manslaughter during a an armed robbery(oil)? Or is that first degree murder since BushCo knew they had to kill a lot of people during the robbery.