OTB Swing-Voter Survey

This past month, before the Democratic National Convention, OffTheBus community members conducted interviews with swing voters -- and people they thought might be swing voters. Below you'll find dispatches from California, Utah, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Maryland. The interviews throw up some interesting material, underlining, for one, the enduring power of campaign sound-bites and cliches. Many of the people interviewed repeated story lines constructed over the last two decades at least and for this campaign in particular that have generally come to define the candidates and their parties. The Democrats, for example, are fiscally irresponsible and want to tax you. Obama is "inexperienced" and "doesn't know what he's doing" and may be an "Islamist posing as an American." The Republican party is still seen as pro "small government" and "low taxes" and is "strong on defense." McCain is or was a maverick politician who occasionally went "off the farm" -- a good or bad thing depending --and is likely emotionally unstable even if a true man of honor.

Mercifully, these laugh-lines are not embraced across the board. Rosalyn Johnson found some real surprises in Maryland, where she lives, and Marta Evry makes a compelling case based on her work in Virginia that, whatever you think and hear, during this election at least, none of it is certain and no one, regardless of their lofty position at the polling firm or cable news outlet, knows a thing!

***
Marta Evry
Election 2008: Nobody Knows Anything
Forget everything you've heard and read. Whether it's Fox, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times or the Huffington Post. Suburban Republicans, southern blacks, Army brats, believe me, you can't poll the stuff I've seen on the trail.

James Gallagher
Chicagoland: Lack of Experience Versus Cranky Old Age
In contrast to the Democrats I spoke to, the Republican lawyer said she saw no problem with McCain's militarism, nor that of the neoconservatives more generally. She didn't worry about the possibility of a draft. She felt that the Iraq War was "mismanaged" but that there was no hidden agenda and no "conspiracy" to lead us to war.

Rosalyn Johnson
Searching For Swing Voters In Blue Maryland
Many of the people I spoke with, whether Democrat or Republican, believe McCain represents wealthy corporate interests and Obama represents the interests of the average working American. Yes, you're reading this correctly: Obama represents the average working man.... no allegations of elitism here.

Sarah Moglewer
McCain Country Swing Voters Looking For Change
"We need a strong leader whose name is not Bush or Clinton.... It's the possibility of change -- not a certainty, of course, and the possibility is beginning to look dubious based on recent positions."

Brian Pendleton
In San Francisco, A Republican
A 64-year-old woman who did not yet know how she was going to vote, since she wasn't certain how either candidate felt about the "big issues." She did like that McCain had "experience" and "strong values," but felt that Obama, though "good," "just doesn't know what the heck he is doing."

Cassandria Slay
Hard Hit In Midwest Most Desperate For Change
Obama is the favorite by far but there is worry that he will not win, not because he is not seen as qualified but because some people will only vote for a white candidate. The message of hope and change is inspiring and empowering but will he really, as president, be able to implement his plan? Will the lobbyists allow the new president to eliminate taxes for seniors making less than $50K? Will he stop the war? Will he bring the jobs back?

Abbie Tingstad
What Election? A Report From Rural Utah
People were suspicious when I asked about the election. They don't want to talk about it. Most seem to view McCain as anti-conservative and/or not religious and Obama as some kind of Islamist posing as an American.

Comments

[TrooAmerican]

what gets me about these interviews is that no one ever seems to want to ask WHY people say what they say or why they think that way or what basis are they making their assumption or position on.
or those interviewers are not publishing the answers if they do get them.
I think its important because almost every single person is ignorant of something and is obviously listening to talking points.
Such as the woman that says {though "good," "just doesn't know what the heck he is doing."}
What is this 64 yr old woman basing this on?
did she follow Baracks legislative career and read all his votes and reasoning behind them?
Did she investigate his pre state legislative career in civic organizations, charity work, social service activities, professorship, college career, incredibly high intelligence and diligent hard working past?
You dont earn entry to Harvard and graduate with honors from there unless you are both Very smart, and Very hard working.
Harvard graduates do not generally provide a work and life history having evidence of "not knowing what the heck they are doing" Neither do successful senators.

[mjc]

Posted some time ago on this blog; nothing offensive. But only a few posts getting through today. New York is not a swing state but think it is very possible that Obama will not carry the state; perhaps the City but not upstate. At various semi-political events it seems clear that people don't trust him up here, even with a veteran like Joe Biden on the ticket.

[seriously29]

again deep seeded predjudice rears its ugly head.

[mjc]

Think I can relate completely to your bloggers. I would normally vote Democratic; knee-jerk Democrat. This time can't bring myself to vote for Obama. His stance on so many issues has turned me off completely, beginning with his rejection of federal campaign financing and perhaps ending with his flip on FISA. Folks up here (upstate NY) are not voting for him in droves; not for the same reason as myself. Many Clinton Democrats, consider myself one but not following their lead, are now going to vote for McCain. Again, McCain is not really someone who believes women still have a long way to go to achieve equality as I do. His vice presidential choice is way over the top in my mind. Anti-protection of wildlife such as bears, grizzily and polar, and wolves, but for the oil companies and for drilling in ANWAR. Not sure what I'll do in the polling booth. I will vote and maybe write in Hillary's name but it seems as this nation is on another planet than Earth.

[DubiousAtBest]

So basically what you're saying is that you will vote 180 degrees in the opposite direction of where Hillary stands on the issues rather than vote for a black man. You care so little about these actual issues that you are voting in some strange bizarre "spite vote" in hopes of achieving, WHAT, exactly?

If you knew the REAL practical reasons about why he went the way he did with FISA and campaign finance reform you would understand that he thought about these issues for quite some time and had to make what initially seems like a bad decision in order to achieve future higher goals. Things aren't always immediately cut and dry.

But those aren't the real reasons for why you claim you won't vote for him "now".
The real reasons are that either you are either a right wing TROLL here, or that you're a racist in denial.

[seriously29]

well maybee all need to suffer more. at least for 4 more years untill there is a white candidate saying the same thing Obama is. what a shame.

[MinerSam]

This shows anatomy of why 7 out of the last 10 admnistrations have been Republicans

Republicans thrive on ignorance,
And have been telling lies through the media
and destoying our educaitonal system for decades.

[patianneb]

Maybe I'm missing something but I think the biggest problem is that PEOPLE DON'T VOTE!!!

I think too many people, have for too long, been led (quite cleverly by those who stand to gain) to believe their votes don't count and they don't count, so why bother.....

For all our self appreciation about our great democracry we are WAY DOWN the list in participation among the democracies of the world. Number 79 at last count, to be exact. That was out of 135.

The education we need is in simple civics and illustrating to people just how much one person DOES matter.

I'm fairly skeptical but I still have a lot of respect for the common sense of the "common folk" and if we'd all vote, (whatever way) I really believe things would be better than they are now.

I feel so strongly about it I'd make it a misdemeanor not to. One hundred hours public service cleaning public toilets -- a symbolic undertaking.

[WhoIsJohnGalt42]

a simple solution to this, tho i doubt the country would ever have the spine to implement it. the founding fathers had the concept right but the applicatio­n/criteria wrong. voting is a privileged to be earned. sure they were way off on the fact that being while, male and land owning made you a capable decision maker but the core fact is in order to have a political decision making process you are dependent up on the decision making abilities of those involved. so here is what you do. firstly you overhaul the education system and make a single and rigorous accredited 12 year programme, entirely secular and based strongly on science, mathematics, history, philosophy, art, civics, and comparative mythology (religion). it is rigorous and the standards are high, it is well funded and open and equal to everyone with the money we now waste on our various ideological and pointless wars "terror" and "drugs" etc. it is comprehensive (ie. not a read this page and take a quiz oh you made an A) and at the end is culminated in a series of examinations both written and oral. you pass you get to vote. you don't you don't. and it is open ended, if you fail/drop out of it you are welcome to come back and try to complete it at any time. if you want a political system based on thoughtful deliberation instead of cynical pandering, misdirection and manipulation you need an electorate above such tactics.

[seriously29]

well said.

[tchristin]

I want to know what happened to that woman McCain supposedly had an affair with? All that was in the news during the primary but she seems to have vanished. Where is she?

[Linda Hansen - Huffpost Blogger]

South Carolina is known for Lee Atwater, not swing voters.

As a local liberal op-ed columnist down here I do get phone calls from folks who swear they're swingin'. Here's what I get:

"Someone said Obama's a Muslim. Is that right?"

"I might vote for that fella you like, but someone said he's gonna raise my taxes!"

"Someone said the terrorists support Barack Obama. Now, you know I always vote for the man--not just the Republican--but we can't have a president who's taking money from terrorists!"

"I really did get all excited listening to Obama's speech. He sounds real good. But he scares me. Someone said he doesn't believe in God and wouldn't even lay his hand on the Bible when he went to Washington!"

And so on. Ad infinitum. "Someone" and "Everybody". The low information voter, swinging or not, may be the death of democracy as we know it.

[XME]

We make immigrants take a test to become Americans, and most of them probably know more about our history than natual born citizens.

Seems to me we should make every American take a test to ensure they know the names of candidates, VPs, basic info on major ISSUES, etc., before they are allowed to vote. It's great that we are a democracy, but personally, I think each person should have to EARN the right to vote by knowing bothering to learn about the people they're voting for and against and what they represent.

[MOregon]

We can all possibly look to our own families to see a microcosm of the voting electorate. As an example, there are five siblings in my family ranging between 48 and 60 years of age. Our mother is almost 80. We live in four different states in the west.

Mother: Hillary supporter based upon the Clinton years who did not watch the primaries, but who will vote for Obama now......1 OBAMA

Oldest Brother and myself: Paid close attention to the primaries and are both solid Obama supporters even though I am pro-life........2 OBAMA

Sister who says she doesn't like McCain, but may vote McCain behind the curtain because she is also pro-life and works on a military base......­.......LEA­NING MCCAIN

One brother who would not admit that he held Obama (due to race) under higher scrutiny and was the first to call him a liar because he changed a position while McCain flip-flopped. Originally for Obama and has always voted Democrat and in spite of this still.....­..........­.....LEANI­NG OBAMA

Youngest brother who is well educated and wealthy, unresponsive of his support either way but a Democrat..­..........­LEANING OBAMA

Most of the neices and nephews in their 20's and 30's will be voting OBAMA.

So if this is a picture of the west, Obama has the lead, which is no surprise because it matches the polling in all of the states except one which is a toss-up.

[kirotahoe]

living in california in 2004, i was pretty sure kerry would win. i mean, how could the nation want four more years of bush. then in september, i took a drive through nevada, utah, wyoming, colorado, kansas, missouri and back through arizona. once i left reno, i was inundated with w signs. it was amazing. and look what happened. the dems took the election for granted and lost again. can barak finally work hard enough and be smart enough to rise above the repub hate mongering? can the nation FINALLY see that the old ways are going away? i surely hope so.

[lucky54]

I live in NY and have the same wish. I think the bigest problem is people mentality, for years after years this system created mindless nation. People simply don't think anymore, they will vote against their own interest because somone will scare them and that's exactly what republicans are doing election after election. Most of voters don't thnik for themself, they just do what they are told by media and if the media is fix news we can have bushes and mcsames for next 100 years. I am hopeful this time, because I see a lot of young people getting involved, and youth has a new energy. Young people travel more then their parents and they see that we are getting behind compare to other countries. Let's face it, if in a XXI century US is running election on healthcare and education ..... we are way behind and this is a shame. The greatest nation on a face of earth running on heathcare and education !!!! This is a result of doing what we are told. They created nation of mindless followers. We need education reforms so badly that yesterday is too late.

[JerseyGirl4Obama]

Excellent post. Let's hope during these desperate economic times that people can rise above the republican fear machine and the racism that stil exists.

[jacq8411]

I don't think it is as seems frequently mentioned in these post that Republicans aren't educated or "don't think". We (I'm republican) think DIFFERENTLY. We have a different philosophy. We want to follow the constitution as the founders intended. We don't want socialism or communism. We want to take care of ourselves and our family not the government. I'm all for a safety net; but when you have more than 50 percent of Americans dependent of the government for Something you have a problem. The scare mongering is on the other side. I really don't think this race will be that close. I think McCain could win by a landslide