It was the final days before Election Day 2000, and with world-historical stakes in the balance, a huge new issue had splashed into the campaign: the drunk driving of one George W. Bush, circa 1976.
Fast forward to 2004, same final pre-election period. Topic du jour? Osama Bin Laden's loony taped message, praising Sweden as a model country and encouraging us to follow their lead. He did not mention the pet goat this time. But Osama was still scary, and as the media were saying, he could change the whole race...
Whatever happened to the bad old days of October surprises?
The last lap of campaign '08 has seen its share of twists, but perhaps the biggest surprise of all is that no big shoe has dropped, no dog has barked, no terrorist has yapped (on this count, the Ayers accusations were trotted out too early), no deeply submerged record has surfaced of cocaine-fueled candidate windsurfing while on the beaches of Vietnam with an intern.
So, since it's just "Waiting for Godot" for 24 more hours, here's a stroll down memory lane.
Let's start with this moment, just before Election Day, in 2000, after months of chatter about earth tones and alpha males.
On racial issues, the tables were turned on the Democrats, sort of. Does anyone recall that it was Al Gore who was being accused of racial demagoguery? Bush said Gore was trying to "scare people into the voting booth." Gore had said Bush was indifferent to the dragging death of James Byrd, supported the Confederate flag flying over the State House in South Carolina, and would appoint unreconstructed judges who would decide cases as if it were 1859.
About this time in 2000 Bush was serenely optimistic, with Karl Rove predicting a landslide of electoral votes. "Boy Genius," if you recall, predicted a total of at least 320.
Gore, meanwhile, was so deliriously tired on stage that at a rally in Michigan he kept confusing the singer Bruce Hornsby - Gore's own warm-up act - with baseball legend Rogers Hornsby.
Rudolph Giuliani was stumping with Bush (unclear what he was talking about, given that the "9/11" theme was as yet unavailable), just as he has with McCain in '08. Colin Powell, who just came up with a huge endorsement for Obama, was out on the hustings with Dick Cheney. Bush was confused about whether or not social security was a federal program. And war veteran John Kerry was, along with Bob Kerrey, stumping for Gore to shore up military support. Swift boats were still four years away.
Somehow - and this seems confusing in retrospect - all "greens" were totally against Al Gore, with Ralph Nader leading the charge against a man who turned out to be the world's greatest gift to the green movement.
America had just re-discovered the electoral college system, and the federal coordinator of the system, Michael White, had become a celebrity. The possibility of a confusing electoral tie was in the air, but Americans were reassured that the electoral system solved all ills and was perfectly designed to avoid, in the words of Hamilton, "cabal, intrigue and corruption."
A defense of Hamilton: Florida was not yet a state when he wrote those words.
And beneath the radar in 2000, an early version of robo-calling was influencing the election in a malignant and sinister way. On Nov. 6, 2000, the New York Times published a stunning trend story: "[C]ampaigns around the country say e-mail has become a powerful way to mobilize supporters..."
Oh, one more 2000 nugget: the New York Post ran a near perfect headline on the Bush drunk-driving revelation: "D-Dubya-I."
Then came 2004, and we all found ourselves in much the same state of uncertainty and anxiety after months of intense coverage of the issues. Unfortunately, the issues were not always contemporary. As Howard Kurtz of the Washington Post put it, "There were periods when the coverage was more about the war in Vietnam than the war in Iraq."
Still, down the stretch towards Election Day word had leaked that 377 tons of Iraqi munitions had gone missing. And news of more weapons in Iraq that couldn't be found seemed to somehow benefit Kerry, though in hindsight it was a wash.
With 48 hours to go, everyone was declaring the Bush-Kerry race a dead heat. Many people were, because of 2000, worrying about whether their vote would be counted. A New York Times/CBS News poll found that 55 percent of respondents thought the country was headed in the wrong direction, a mild number compared to those in 2008.
Just before Election Day, Dick Cheney headed to, of all places, Hawaii, where polls were showing the race tightening. Given that Hawaii did go Democratic anyway, one has to wonder if this was a fabrication to get the vice president some beach time.
Being a Red Sox fan, John Kerry was hoping that the club's World Series victory in late October might be a good omen going into Election Day. (Should, then, left-leaning Sox fans count the team's elimination this year as a positive omen for Obama?)
Anyway, in 2004, a "groundswell" of new voters was also predicted by the Left. "The really untold story is the huge numbers of new registrants - particularly among low-income Americans and communities of color," an ACORN official said. But no one was leveling grandiose charges of the biggest voter fraud in history by ACORN, as we've heard recently.
Which is all to say that some things in elections stay the same, but some things also change.
In 2000 and 2004, Gore, Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards were all over the black church circuit near voting day. This year, well, that may not be quite as necessary.
I speculate that early voting has diminished the impact of October Surprises. The GOP saw this, and decided not to risk any stunts. But it looks like the GOP's back-up plan -- namely, vote suppression -- will not stop Obama from getting 270 Electoral College votes. What to do?
I predict the rise of a new phenomenon: the Lame Duck Christmas Present. The GOP can't beat Obama before the election, SO -- they will beat him AFTERWARDS.
If they can make Obama's "highly liberal agenda" (ignore for a moment the fact that Obama's voting record and policy statements show that GOP'ers have little to fear from him) IMPOSSIBLE for the man to pursue -- then the GOP can still win, even if they lose!
The U.S. constantly rattles sabers at Iran. BushCo also recently sent up trial balloons in Georgia and Syria. What if one of those conflicts just happens to escalate into another shooting war? As a nation, we've been brainwashed into believing that withholding money from wars is "not supporting the troops." Where will the money for Obama's agenda come from then?
If the Lame Duck Xmas Gift fails: well then, after Inauguration Day, the GOP minority in Congress will rediscover the filibuster. They will engineer sideshows, like we had in Clinton's first year in office -- Kimba Wood, Lani Guinier, and "don't ask don't tell."
Come 2010, the GOP will campaign against "ineffective liberals," and win.
http://www.jokerzinternetradio.com/phpmotion/play.php?vid=108
-Viz
Bowdoin Class of 1996, sort of
Monday Night Football on Election Day eve will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers playing the Washington Redskins -- and Senators John McCain against Barack Obama as the half-time entertainment.
McCain will do the only honorable thing left for him to do at halftime at tommorrow night's football game.
On the eve of the election he will announce his endorsement for Barack Obama for President of the United States thus making history and sending shock waves around the globe!
Mr McCain in a rare moment of lucidity said "It's over and I admit I made some horrible mistakes. Among my tragic flaws was being seen with President George W Bush several times and declaring, on one the worst days in the nation's economic history, that fundamentally our economy was strong.
And,in an error of truly monumental proportions,I chose a vice-presidential candidate quickly, desperately and recklessly who turned out to be the laughing stock of the nation- if it weren't so threatening to the nation's security. Many of my closest colleagues and advisors realized immediately after I chose Sarah Palin that the game was over", said McCain
"The welfare of our nation is more important than a McCain/Palin victory" - said a relieved looking McCain ,thus salvaging any shred of positive legacy for himself that might be remaining.
Dr. Rick Lippin
Southampton,Pa
Otherwise big government leaves ordinary poeple, all capable of corruption, to be more in control of our lives as individuals.
Please don't forget our democratic party which is knew because DEMOCRATS LOVE TO DO NOTHING.
Democrats only show to our congress to received their benefits and check.
obama is just the recipient of OUR MEDIA'S REMORSE because until today I find not pieces a legislation submited for Obama.
My question is simple :
WHY OUR FLABOYANT JEWELS A.K.A. know as MEDIA ARE PUSHING OBAMA ?
My first tought is REMORSE, after that came to my mind. MONEY but at the end IS HAPPENING THAT OBAMA IS JUST THE GUY HAS TO COME BEFORE JESUSCRIST.
Am'I wrong ? let me know because I want to know the real reason.
www.thetruthburns.wordpress.com
At this point, I'm calling friends, I'm calling family. I'm saying I love 'em, but they've got to get to the polls and VOTE to make this country a place where love MATTERS more than hatred. Gotta vote for hope and involvement in common purpose, instead of suspicion and fear and alienation.
And one thing we've all got to admit from the outset: even if Obama/Biden and a passel of congressional Democrats win Tuesday, we're not in for non-stop champagne and strawberries. We'll face lots of work to clean up after the fervent greed party and begin taking care of needs left long neglected. So we'll have to stay focused, realistic, as determined in our way as those who made the mess were in theirs. If we do that, won't those PTSD symptoms become things of the past?
Meanwhile, keep the faith and keep pointing our attention to where it ought to go!
The difference is that there have been dozens of them instead of just one.
Communist! Terrorist! Muslim! Arab!
Baby-killer! Middle-Class-Tax-Raiser!
Fraudulent Birth Certificate! Slavery Reparations!
Etc..
However, since the McCain/Palin campaign has thrown out so MANY different bogus charges (in hopes that at least one would stick), the biggest October Surprise is that there are still gullible people out there who give the Republican Dirty-Trick Machine (Factory) any credence at all.
Well, that's sort of a surprise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH2iufUU1f4
Of course, at the time, the McCain camp jusmp all over him and said that HE was playing the race card. They were just p*ssed off because he knew what trump they were going to play before they played it. If nothing else, it shows that he's thinking several steps/months ahead of the competition at all times.
McCain said a week ago, "We've got them right where we want them." As of last night, I'm beginning to see that he may not have just been blustering to shore up the base. Maddow's segment last night discussed that a study of the 2004 Ohio voting showed that 129,000 people got out of line and left because the lines were too long.
Other trends from last night's news:
1) Obama up 13% in CBS poll. Good general news, but bad overall as it will instill complacency. It's not over until the votes are CAST/COUNTED.
2) Virginia being sued by NAACP to have additional paper ballots to handle the expected crowds. Dearth of machines in minority precincts.
3) In Nevada, the youth turnout isn't what's expected so far. Only about 14% of those that cast early votes fell into the youth category. In contrast, the older voters, over 60, have turned out in better than expected numbers.
4) Wait lines in some states were averaging 2.5 hours while max in some places was 5-6 hours for EARLY voting.
Seriously, folks should consider taking a vacation day tomorrow. If you are just planning to "swing by" during lunch or on the way home from the office, it's probably not going to pay off for you. If you don't vote tomorrow and we get another four years like the last eight; it will be a horrible opportunity that's been squandered.
The Democrats needed far more attack ads. God knows they have much more damning evidence to draw on than the Republicans, and yet their attacks were sporadic and weak compared to the Republican smears, which dominated the news cycles.
Democrats must make Repulbicans AFRAID to lie. Until they do that, they will narrowly lose elections unless there is an impending Depression.
They also should have played the "class card". They should have said "John McCain is afraid we will take away one of his 7 or 8 houses, or 16 cars, or Cindy's "280k earrings; he is afraid that we will distribute the wealth; no that is not true; we just don't want CEOs making thousands of dollars an hour, who have run their companies into the ground and bankrupted the pension plans of millions of Americans, to walk away with millions for THEIR pension plans. And we want affordable college education and healthcare as a basic right. We want to level the playing field that way. No more tax incentives for companies moving jobs overseas; we want taxbreaks for the Middle Class, not for large corporations and the Ultra Wealthy."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rk1NjrSHrWE
Obama/Biden 08
http://michaelfury.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/coke-or-pepsi/