The Cell Phone Polling Gap: An Artificially "Close" Race?

Despite Barack Obama's recent surge in the polls, the media maintain -- as they have throughout the summer -- that the race is close, and will be so on Nov. 4. And that may be true.

But imagine if Obama's upward climb in opinion polls right now were not just a few points. Imagine if it were seven or eight or more.

The media narrative might be clear: unfolding landslide. With that would come the momentum, the fundraising potential, the kind of late-election heat on the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket that can induce panic.

And given recent insights into polling data and cell phone users, it's entirely possible that the only thing between a decisive Obama lead coming into October and more election-as-nail-biter boilerplate is the vast leftwing wireless network.

The Pew Research Center's recent report on the issue asserted that polling by landline telephone may undercount Barack Obama voters by perhaps 3 percent. It's one of the first pieces of conclusive evidence on the issue. But this is a young science, in a rapidly changing communications landscape where mobile-only households are multiplying. So who knows if that's undercounting the undercounting?

Statistically, Obama voters are more likely to be part of the younger, cell-only set. Cell users under 30 go left in a big way: 62 percent Democrat to 28 Republican. And cell-only voters of all ages go for Obama over McCain by 19 percent, 55 to 36 percent, according to Pew's most recent survey.

However, the Pew report points out that previous weighting techniques by pollsters assume that cell and landline users are the same politically. So many landline polls this year may have relied on faulty math.

A few poll organizations, such as Gallup and Pew itself, have been including cell phones in their surveys all year. Others, like NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post, just started recently, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.

Since the issue of a cell phone/landline gap first surfaced in the 2004 campaign, the problem of properly measuring opinion in a mobile age has been debated among pollsters and media wonks. The John Kerry campaign claimed its voters were being undercounted because some of them were cell-only, and exit polls confirmed that. But cell-only voters then represented a meager 7 percent.

Some states now have at least 16 percent of households reporting cell-only usage, more than twice the rates reported in the 2004 election. And that estimate is based on 2007 data. Many of the swing states in which the '08 race will be decided have high numbers of cell-only households: Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, among others. (See Brian Schaffner's discussion of cell phone-use and states at Pollster.com.) So, that could boost the case that the mobile phone gap could be playing a big role this year.

Of course, conventional wisdom holds that younger voters are less predictable as to whether they will actually show up to the polls, and the Pew report flags that issue. Young voters also won't represent the same force in a general election as they did in the Obama-mania primary, as their power is diluted by sheer numbers.

Yet the implications of the cell phone gap could stretch even deeper, perhaps into psychological territory. Everyone knows that '08 should favor Democrats and Obama, if history and issue-oriented surveys are any guide. And yet, as the mantra goes, the McCain-Obama race remains "close."

This is at a more speculative level, and this is where empirical data fails, but it's worth saying: a "close" campaign also feeds the notion that voters are just unsure or "undecided" about Obama -- whether on legitimate issues like his years in office, or other dubious ones.

And those undecided voters are now squarely in the spotlight. Their opinions on Obama's character may indeed decide this election.

Polling guru Mark Blumenthal recently dissected a group of 973 undecided voters and their views on whether McCain or Obama was "more prepared to lead the country." The result: McCain favored 52 to 18. For sure, "prepared" may mean just that -- ready to go, or seasoned by experience. But as has been endlessly discussed in this campaign, such vague language may also serve as a proxy for any number of other issues in voters' minds with regard to Obama. It's where a kind of subterranean logic can operate: a lot of other people are unsure about Obama, so I should be, too.

As David Moore demonstrates in his new book The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls, surveys have a way of "manufacturing" a climate of opinion and shaping a public mood. The echo chamber of popular opinion has a way of reinforcing itself. (For a chilling anatomy of a polling nightmare, see Moore's first chapter on polls and the lead-up to the Iraq War.)

That is not to say that the cell phone polling gap is the only factor restraining Obama from coasting to a win. But with momentum at a premium in elections, and this one in the home stretch, it's worth considering that Obama's lead may be artificially dialed back by the demographics of his biggest fans.

Comments

[Paul]

Polls are taken by polling companies to provide evidence that... more polls are needed.

Same with the mainstream media - no one is gonna watch NBC news unless its a Presidential horse race. So the race is covered from angles that make it seem close.

[PNK]

A disturbing new study shows that studies are... disturbing. (Ellen Degeneres line)

[FirstShirt]

Polls also suggested that Jimmy Carter was 15 points ahaead of Ronald Reagan.

[Pattycakes90]

Yes, I'm one of those people who is skeptical of the polls. I was recently polled, via landline phone, and the way they ask you questions is also a bit deceiving. One question I was asked was if I had a positive or negative opinion of Sarah Palin. I'm sure she is a fine person but I believe she is not qualified to be president. So my answer was "neutral." In other words, I don't have a negative opinion of her; I just don't think she is qualified.

[PNK]

You are smarter than the average pollster.

[gypsysoul111]

i feel obama will win in a landslide. there are so many new liberal voters and minority voters who haven't had a candidate they could put their trust in. these people aren't online submitting to the polls, being called, or attending political events, but i feel they will come out on election day. for the young it is now "cool" to vote and for the people who didn't vote because they saw no difference in candidates now have a candidate who truely represents change.

now let me get back to making fun of sarah palin...i hope tonight debate will be as much fun as i hope!

[armason]

Polls Smolls..Obama is winning. This is with Old Registration. With the thousands of new refistrations, Obama will win in a Landslide Victory. But more to the Point ,Who wants McBush and Palin as their commanders in chief..Huh, I hear crickets.

[HHarvey]

I think you missed one important point in your article above and that is all the newly registered democratic voters who have not been polled because they are not on the old polling rolls. I think that is hugely important to the poll numbers being close, not to mention as you stated above, more cell phone users. I think if you were to combine those two factors the polls would look differently. I've looked at all the various polling agencies online and each one has a different way of polling, some are obviously slated (yes including huffpo). Take the polls with a grain of salt and get out and vote!

[Strepsi]

I believe you are right. You could also add that it is in the media's interest to MANUFACTURE a close race, to give the "cliff-hanger" aspect of the story more momentum. Just like post-debate, all the media say "no one landed a knockout punch, it's still close!" The media -- including, sometimes, my beloved HuffPost -- can be pretty desperate.

[Myshkin57]

I agree. If Palin gets a few blocks in the right holes tonight, the media will act as though they're wowed by her prowess. They need another month's worth of suspense.

[larmarch5]

The other factor is that "It's the electoral votes, sweetie." Polls need to be updated in the Southeast. Voters there are livid over the gasoline shortages and their politicians' dismissal as a real problem. NC has moved, WV is moving, and I suspect other states are nearing tipping points. The shortage has been going on for three weeks now.

[autish]

Let me suggest that this time, Obama not surging in the polls may be a good thing.

In the election between Conservatives led by John Major and Labor led by Neil Kinnock in the early '90s in the UK, Labor led in the polls by several percentage points. Ultimately though, the conservatives won easily. There were many poliing errors that surfaced later, but it seems one of the contributing factors is that a huge lead lulls supporters into a sense of complacency and energizes opponents. A huge lead by Obama woud have that effect.

I would be willing to bet that it is easier to suppress youth voter turnout by creating a sense of complacency than to energize fence sitters by making Obama look like having the momentum.

[FACINGREALIT]

I am 50 years old and I've been voting since 1976. During this entire time, I've NEVER been as excited nor seen the youth as excited to vote. There have been many changes in the electoral season to include the importance and validity of the Internet. The youth OWN the Internet and they are blogging, volunteering and registering like NEVER before.

This year, because they are expected not to turn out - the youth will be there in spades because they TRULY IDENTIFY WITH OBAMA. I watched it during the primaries here in Houston where people carcused until 4:00 a.m. in pledge of their support of Obama. They would not leave until their vote counted! They absolutely refused to leave as the lines formed for miles. I've never been so proud of them in my life. I guarantee you - the youth will be there - rain, hail, sleet or snow for they know that a day like this is almost once in a lifetime and they will not miss out. I trust them this year more than ever before.

p.s. - I will be there as well, cheering them on - Obama/Biden 08

[OurKoan]

As we watch the "boomers" sell out, one by one, it is SO NICE to know the torch is being taken. Just read that Dennis Hopper is appearing in some over the top conservative comedy. Easy Rider Hopper, "born to be wild", selling out to the Man. Thank god for the young people we've got.

[foxbat]

I was thinking the same thing earlier today. The fact that it's been small incremental rises probably gives more sustainability to the numbers, barring some type of jarring activity. That's why the Obama bump after the convention and McCain overtaking Obama after the Palin pick and convention didn't cause me too much heartburn.

I also think that the "urgency" facto is better for the Obama camp specifically for the reason that you indicated: the youth vote. Right now, that youth vote in the hand is becoming more important than the undecideds as I think Obama can probably get a split of the remaining undecideds. He can't afford, however, to give up that youth vote in any form.

[hyjanks]

Then there's the Bradley effect:

http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/0-0&fp=48e4800211fc016e&

Seems the mayor of LA was leading in the polls right up until election day of 1982, then the true colors (pardon the pun) of the electorate kicked in and who would have been California's first black governor went down to defeat by 52,000 votes.

Lesson? VOTER TURNOUT! Cell phone uses and land-line phoners alike. Give Obama a double-digit lead in the polls and the race/idiot factor will go down to defeat.

[Eek909]

This has been my theory for months. I'm a twenty-something, and barely anyone I know even has a land line any more, let alone would have the time to sit and answer a bunch of polling questions. All of these cell phone only people I know are voting Obama.

[Figerre]

This poll is a bit low. I register students to on-line college classes in AZ and my own unscientific poll shows that 3 out of 4 students has NO landline. I register 60-80 students a day -- making 45-60 using their cell as their only phone. Go figure.

[jafromaz]

Another uncientific poll - I have personally spoken to white females in the 40-70 age group who have always voted republican in AZ, but now plan to vote for Obama.

[soonerdru]

Finally someone has said it in print . . . faulty math. In the end the only math that will count is the final tally. I predict it will be a landslide and have been stating so since June.

[newdreams]

Good points - Cell phone users, as well as newly registered voters, and voters that did NOT vote in the last presidential election are not included in the poll numbers.

Another thing I've thought about - Remember that 'Do Not Call' list people could sign up for to end sales calls, etc. Just about everybody below a certain age signed up for that. I'm wondering if that has anything to do with the pollsters as well.

[HHarvey]

No. It has nothing to do with it. I signed up for the "Do not call" list and I had a pollster call me regarding Proposition 8 here in CA so they are not obviously going by that standard. Also, I have caller ID on my phone and my phone has been ringing practically every night. I do not answer it because it says unknown name unknown number.

[RAStewart]

The "do not call" list applies to commercial telemarketers only:

"28. ... Because of limitations in the jurisdiction of the FTC and FCC, calls from or on behalf of political organizations, charities, and telephone surveyors would still be permitted, as would calls from companies with which you have an existing business relationship, or those to whom you’ve provided express agreement in writing to receive their calls."

http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/pubs/consumer/alerts/alt107.shtmm"

[Krikkit]

The betting markets are almost always right on picking the winners, while polls are notoriously bad predictors. To quote a research paper on the topic:

"Wagering on presidential elections has a long tradition in the United States, with
large and often well-organized markets operating for over three-quarters of a century
before the Second World War. The resulting betting odds proved remarkably prescient
and almost always correctly predicted election outcomes well in advance, despite the
absence of scientific polls."

-- Historical Presidential Betting Markets
Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf

This is no nail-biter. An Obama win is already in the bag by large margins.

[jafromaz]

I was polled once, but don’t know anyone else who has received a call. I have a land line and cell phone but know plenty of 50 year olds who only have cell phones. After emailing Gallop questioning their polling methods, I was surprised to get a response and it stated the Gallop poll does include cell phone numbers.

The debate watch party I attended was with people of different races, ages, and genders – all for Obama, including an older white man who has lived in Arizona his entire life. We would love for Obama to take Arizona – that would be a great upset!

[SurrealPumpkin]

I have a land line and a cell phone. I was polled alot in 2004. This year I received one poll call but didn't belong to the right demographic group by age. I may have missed some, the one I did get had a real phone number and name on my caller ID. Alot of the polling calls are from "unidentified numbers" which I don't answer as a matter of principle.

54 year old female in a swing state.