The Cell Phone Polling Gap: An Artificially "Close" Race?
Despite Barack Obama's recent surge in the polls, the media maintain -- as they have throughout the summer -- that the race is close, and will be so on Nov. 4. And that may be true.
But imagine if Obama's upward climb in opinion polls right now were not just a few points. Imagine if it were seven or eight or more.
The media narrative might be clear: unfolding landslide. With that would come the momentum, the fundraising potential, the kind of late-election heat on the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket that can induce panic.
And given recent insights into polling data and cell phone users, it's entirely possible that the only thing between a decisive Obama lead coming into October and more election-as-nail-biter boilerplate is the vast leftwing wireless network.
The Pew Research Center's recent report on the issue asserted that polling by landline telephone may undercount Barack Obama voters by perhaps 3 percent. It's one of the first pieces of conclusive evidence on the issue. But this is a young science, in a rapidly changing communications landscape where mobile-only households are multiplying. So who knows if that's undercounting the undercounting?
Statistically, Obama voters are more likely to be part of the younger, cell-only set. Cell users under 30 go left in a big way: 62 percent Democrat to 28 Republican. And cell-only voters of all ages go for Obama over McCain by 19 percent, 55 to 36 percent, according to Pew's most recent survey.
However, the Pew report points out that previous weighting techniques by pollsters assume that cell and landline users are the same politically. So many landline polls this year may have relied on faulty math.
A few poll organizations, such as Gallup and Pew itself, have been including cell phones in their surveys all year. Others, like NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post, just started recently, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.
Since the issue of a cell phone/landline gap first surfaced in the 2004 campaign, the problem of properly measuring opinion in a mobile age has been debated among pollsters and media wonks. The John Kerry campaign claimed its voters were being undercounted because some of them were cell-only, and exit polls confirmed that. But cell-only voters then represented a meager 7 percent.
Some states now have at least 16 percent of households reporting cell-only usage, more than twice the rates reported in the 2004 election. And that estimate is based on 2007 data. Many of the swing states in which the '08 race will be decided have high numbers of cell-only households: Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, among others. (See Brian Schaffner's discussion of cell phone-use and states at Pollster.com.) So, that could boost the case that the mobile phone gap could be playing a big role this year.
Of course, conventional wisdom holds that younger voters are less predictable as to whether they will actually show up to the polls, and the Pew report flags that issue. Young voters also won't represent the same force in a general election as they did in the Obama-mania primary, as their power is diluted by sheer numbers.
Yet the implications of the cell phone gap could stretch even deeper, perhaps into psychological territory. Everyone knows that '08 should favor Democrats and Obama, if history and issue-oriented surveys are any guide. And yet, as the mantra goes, the McCain-Obama race remains "close."
This is at a more speculative level, and this is where empirical data fails, but it's worth saying: a "close" campaign also feeds the notion that voters are just unsure or "undecided" about Obama -- whether on legitimate issues like his years in office, or other dubious ones.
And those undecided voters are now squarely in the spotlight. Their opinions on Obama's character may indeed decide this election.
Polling guru Mark Blumenthal recently dissected a group of 973 undecided voters and their views on whether McCain or Obama was "more prepared to lead the country." The result: McCain favored 52 to 18. For sure, "prepared" may mean just that -- ready to go, or seasoned by experience. But as has been endlessly discussed in this campaign, such vague language may also serve as a proxy for any number of other issues in voters' minds with regard to Obama. It's where a kind of subterranean logic can operate: a lot of other people are unsure about Obama, so I should be, too.
As David Moore demonstrates in his new book The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls, surveys have a way of "manufacturing" a climate of opinion and shaping a public mood. The echo chamber of popular opinion has a way of reinforcing itself. (For a chilling anatomy of a polling nightmare, see Moore's first chapter on polls and the lead-up to the Iraq War.)
That is not to say that the cell phone polling gap is the only factor restraining Obama from coasting to a win. But with momentum at a premium in elections, and this one in the home stretch, it's worth considering that Obama's lead may be artificially dialed back by the demographics of his biggest fans.
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Since I moved from Connecticut, I have had only a cell phone. I am 37, and will be voting for Barack Obama. All of these polls should ONLY be as invalid as the growing cellphone gap indicates; there would be no firmer a nail in the Republican coffin.
+1
The numbers don't add up...Obama can only hope for maybe .5-1% help with his alleged JungenFreu
yep, I am in an office of 20 people, no one with a land line, mostly between the ages of 23-45...I would say only a small percentage of my social network is on land lines..and you bet your bottom dollar that every last person I know is going to vote this election, and only 2 are voting for McCain [Palin's position on the Abortion issue]...b
I think it matters a lot more than pollsters want to admit. This far, mobile users are beyond their reach. Too bad land lines aren't.
.5-1%...no more...why
I have convinced several supporters of McCain to either vote Obama or Third Party. Actually Palin helped the most with that. They were so happy about a female VP until they heard her speak. She scared them away with her incompetance.
I hope Governor Palin speaks loud and proud often. She is the best recruiter for Obama out there.
Very encouraging.
At least she speaks openly and not from a piece of paper or teleprompt
This is a rather meaningless comment. Of course Obama's giving us democratic talking points. This is an election and he's a democrat! I'm not sure why you give such weight to Palin "speaking openly", since when she opens, idiocy is emitted. I infer that you think Obama does not speak openly because he speaks well. Sorry Ur, but we've had enough of government that "speaks openly" to the lowest common denominator. You're going to be awfully lonely on election day.
I am a 54 year old divorced citizen that has been a cell only user for the past four years. OBAMA supporter - Voter
.5%...no more
This article makes a valid point. People often feel safer following the crowd, so camouflaging Obama's popularity could definitely slow his momentum. No doubt that's why the McCain campaign made those celebrity ads. To counteract the effect of huge crowds cheering for Obama, they tried to hide Obama's popularity in plain sight by mixing it up with the kind of attention lavished upon decidedly un-presidential celebrities. Then, they picked one for a VP.
Besides suppressing the momentum that should belong to Obama - to all of us - these inaccurate polls may provide cover for some serious tampering with the process. The caging has already started.
I'm 43, a cell only user and will vote Obama.....
there are lots of us. 41 here and for O. in fact, I'd put most of my friends in that category. the cut off for cell phone only seems generational; boomers and up are less mobil, more landline-y, anecdotally speaking
Nate Silver has good observations on the cell phone gap as well ...
http://www
as for Chuck Todd ... I feel sorry for him sometimes for the straight face he has to keep when he artificially inflates McCain's chances ... then I remember that his wife works for McCain
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www.gregpa
Absolutely on-point!
And has been demonstrated before, you only have to make some votes disappear in Ohio and keep minorities from voting in Florida to win an election. They have done it twice.
I saw this argument in 2004. Is there any evidence to suggest the polling and the election in substantial disagreement due to the cell phone effect?
...and how much difference did it make then? The number of cell phone exclusive users has NOT gone up that significantly since then, and the youth vote has NEVER been successful in getting out in the numbers so many claim it can muster...a
I know my wife and I are cell-only users now. Two of my brothers and their wives are cell-only users now. At least 2 of my immediate co-workers are cell-only users now,... All of us are between 30-45 years old.
All of us are going to vote for Obama,... none of us has been polled.
The numbers could be relatively staggering come November.
I haven't had a land line since 2001. My brother and two sisters also are cell-only. We're all 30-somethings. All voting for Obama.
Gallup calls cell phones, and I think most other polling organizations do, too. They may undercount them, but they don't ignore them.
gvc - When did Gallop start polling cell phone. I went to their website and couldn't find anything. Help!
January
http://www
not only are land lines required for polling, but also the expectation that all people pick up for calls from unsolicited callers they don't recognize.
http://www
Gallup calls cell phones.
Let's not forget also that the media have a vested interest in presenting this as a nail-biter horserace for as long as possible, whether it actually is one or not.
Something that gives me hope. Chuck Todd, the "numbers guy" was on tv a few nights ago discussing the polling and statistics from the primary. He said that as of February 19 the math showed that Obama was going to win. There was only a 10% chance that Clinton could win, but that the campaign aided by the press kept up a presentation of a horse race. (This isn't a Clinton bashing - she had the right to run as long as she chose to stay in - but as I understood him the neck and neck odds as presented by pundits weren't supported by the actual numbers. It was effectively over on 2/19 and the rest was just tv ratings.)
So when I hear that there is a group not being accurately calculated into the polls now, I am open to believing it. This is the first election where the new technology has really factored in, from the internet to cell phones and the political world is having to revamp. And let's face it this unusual election has been filled with surprises.
My 24 year old daughter and her husband are cell users only. Strong Obama voters, who make little money, but somehow find a way to donate $$$ as often as possible. As a mother I am so proud of their commitment. They haven't missed an election since they turned 18, local, state or national. Most of their frinds are strong Obama suporters and use cells - they will be out to vote. Lets give it to this generation - they rock & will make a CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!
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