The Cell Phone Polling Gap: An Artificially "Close" Race?
Despite Barack Obama's recent surge in the polls, the media maintain -- as they have throughout the summer -- that the race is close, and will be so on Nov. 4. And that may be true.
But imagine if Obama's upward climb in opinion polls right now were not just a few points. Imagine if it were seven or eight or more.
The media narrative might be clear: unfolding landslide. With that would come the momentum, the fundraising potential, the kind of late-election heat on the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket that can induce panic.
And given recent insights into polling data and cell phone users, it's entirely possible that the only thing between a decisive Obama lead coming into October and more election-as-nail-biter boilerplate is the vast leftwing wireless network.
The Pew Research Center's recent report on the issue asserted that polling by landline telephone may undercount Barack Obama voters by perhaps 3 percent. It's one of the first pieces of conclusive evidence on the issue. But this is a young science, in a rapidly changing communications landscape where mobile-only households are multiplying. So who knows if that's undercounting the undercounting?
Statistically, Obama voters are more likely to be part of the younger, cell-only set. Cell users under 30 go left in a big way: 62 percent Democrat to 28 Republican. And cell-only voters of all ages go for Obama over McCain by 19 percent, 55 to 36 percent, according to Pew's most recent survey.
However, the Pew report points out that previous weighting techniques by pollsters assume that cell and landline users are the same politically. So many landline polls this year may have relied on faulty math.
A few poll organizations, such as Gallup and Pew itself, have been including cell phones in their surveys all year. Others, like NBC/Wall Street Journal and ABC/Washington Post, just started recently, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com.
Since the issue of a cell phone/landline gap first surfaced in the 2004 campaign, the problem of properly measuring opinion in a mobile age has been debated among pollsters and media wonks. The John Kerry campaign claimed its voters were being undercounted because some of them were cell-only, and exit polls confirmed that. But cell-only voters then represented a meager 7 percent.
Some states now have at least 16 percent of households reporting cell-only usage, more than twice the rates reported in the 2004 election. And that estimate is based on 2007 data. Many of the swing states in which the '08 race will be decided have high numbers of cell-only households: Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, among others. (See Brian Schaffner's discussion of cell phone-use and states at Pollster.com.) So, that could boost the case that the mobile phone gap could be playing a big role this year.
Of course, conventional wisdom holds that younger voters are less predictable as to whether they will actually show up to the polls, and the Pew report flags that issue. Young voters also won't represent the same force in a general election as they did in the Obama-mania primary, as their power is diluted by sheer numbers.
Yet the implications of the cell phone gap could stretch even deeper, perhaps into psychological territory. Everyone knows that '08 should favor Democrats and Obama, if history and issue-oriented surveys are any guide. And yet, as the mantra goes, the McCain-Obama race remains "close."
This is at a more speculative level, and this is where empirical data fails, but it's worth saying: a "close" campaign also feeds the notion that voters are just unsure or "undecided" about Obama -- whether on legitimate issues like his years in office, or other dubious ones.
And those undecided voters are now squarely in the spotlight. Their opinions on Obama's character may indeed decide this election.
Polling guru Mark Blumenthal recently dissected a group of 973 undecided voters and their views on whether McCain or Obama was "more prepared to lead the country." The result: McCain favored 52 to 18. For sure, "prepared" may mean just that -- ready to go, or seasoned by experience. But as has been endlessly discussed in this campaign, such vague language may also serve as a proxy for any number of other issues in voters' minds with regard to Obama. It's where a kind of subterranean logic can operate: a lot of other people are unsure about Obama, so I should be, too.
As David Moore demonstrates in his new book The Opinion Makers: An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls, surveys have a way of "manufacturing" a climate of opinion and shaping a public mood. The echo chamber of popular opinion has a way of reinforcing itself. (For a chilling anatomy of a polling nightmare, see Moore's first chapter on polls and the lead-up to the Iraq War.)
That is not to say that the cell phone polling gap is the only factor restraining Obama from coasting to a win. But with momentum at a premium in elections, and this one in the home stretch, it's worth considering that Obama's lead may be artificially dialed back by the demographics of his biggest fans.
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
The best thing for Obama and the Democrats is a little fear. We cannot afford to get complacent and unfortunately what happens when many people see too large a lead is that they think it is in the bag and don't vote.
True, and well put.
In addition, the turnout boost that comes from the perception of a close race will help us win more of the close Senate and Congressional races.
There is also the "Caller ID" factor. I won't answer the phone if I don't recognize the phone number. I know that there are a lot of people like me who always screen their calls.
good point- and aren't older (ie more gullible, ie typical GOP voter) more likely to pick up for telemarketing #s or not screen their calls at all
Stereotype much? Any other prejudices you'd care to share with us? Maybe something about different races or ethnicities?
I'm a 54 yr old white female voting for Obama (& I work the polls for elections). My Mother is 84 yrs old, & for the 1st time in her life, she is voting Dem. because she truly puts country first - she has 6 grandchildren.
Don't be so quick to stereotype - you are only doing yourself a disservice.
The only people in my family that have a land line our my grand parents, they are also the only republicans in my family.
Give me an evening with your Grandparents, I'll change their minds.....
I would love this to be true, except I heard it before in 2004. It makes sense to me, but I didn't see the effect in that election.
Go Obama!
I live in conservative central Pennsylvania with three twenty-something sons. Neither they, or their numerous friends and aquaintences, own land line phones. They are overwhelmingly Obama backers. (and Jon Stewart / Stephen Colbert fans) I would guess 60% of them will actually make it to the polls. Whatever the stats were for "cell only" voters in 2004, the effect is definitely greater in 2008.
Remember the famously wrong "Dewey wins over Truman" headline, was the result of many Southern Democrats not even owning phones. The polls missed them completely.
It's not just cell phones, it's young people in general.
All of the polls weight the youth vote by using the numbers of voters who showed up on election day back in 2004. We have already seen in the Democratic primaries that young people have turned out to vote like never before. So, even without the cell phone only crowd, the polls expect significantly fewer young voters than will likely turn out on election day. That's worth a couple points right there, then the cell phone effect is worth one or two more. So the polls understate Obama's strength by 3 to 4%. In spite of this, Obama is polling very strong; a lead of 15% in Pennsylvania, l0% in Ohio, leading in Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.
McCain is done. Stick a fork in him!
This could be true, I'm not sure..... but assuming it is -- I still am very worried about voters who, once they step into the voting booth, will let their hidden racist emotions win out and not pull the lever for Obama. I hope I'm wrong - but this phenomenon could off-set any bounce Obama gets from cell-phones. Hopefully the newly registered voters are also not being accurately polled -- which could give him a bounce in the end.
I have two college age kids - cell only. Not only are they Obama supporters, but they are hard working- get out the vote- Obama supporters. My one son borrowed a car and drove over 50 people to the caucus in Washington State from campus and a local old aged home. He was one of several kids so inclined. My other kid, just 18, volunteered as a delegate for Obama all the way to the convention. he has rallied multiple people in his school and in our neighborhood to get out and vote. I have predicted for months now - Obama in a landslide.
I love your post. You must be proud of your kids to be so involved and making a difference. You did a good job with them! Mine is only 12 but is also so aware of this election and loves Obama and Biden. Go Obama!
That's great! Big ups to you and your children. You obviously raised them right!
I've been saying this for months, the only people poled are the ones with landline phones, my kids all gave up their landline phones and use cell phones only.
Ditto!
There's another point in favor of our young voters - here in my county, we have 'early voting' stations, starting next week. And one of our early voting stations is on Indiana State University Campus! I know our young folks don't turn out in the numbers we would like to see, but putting a polling station on campus where they can get at it without borrowing a car or begging a ride or skipping a class to do it: PRICELESS!! I predict a much, MUCH larger youth turnout this election, not because kids got smarter, but because we're not allowing them to be stopped by the Republican machine that has spent a lot of effort disenfranchising the young.
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
