While, from the perspective of the calendar, it is obviously very early in the presidential race, the outcome may be far more set in stone than most observers are willing or able to admit. I have said during the primaries that a presidential election is far more like a poker game where most of the cards have already been drawn, than like a sports contest where, theoretically, anything can happen after the start of play (for the record, I have worked as a polling analyst at a major university and commissioned two major polls for a feature documentary film I did after the 2008 election).
For all intents and purposes, the only cards yet to be dealt in this 2012 race are the VP pick, the debate and the economy cards. Frankly, there is a very good chance that Mitt Romney's VP pick will purposely not move the needle, that the debates will be a wash, and that the perception of the economy (no matter how hard the media tries) will remain pretty much what it currently is. Given these assumptions, it is quite possible to make an educated prediction about how the election will turn out.
What is most amazing about all of this is how incredibly likely an electoral college tie currently appears to be. Last night I went to www.270towin.com and predicted the election state by state. Without concern for the overall outcome my map resulted in a 269-269 tie. Remarkably, my map doesn't contain anything close to a massive upset and makes perfect sense as a broader narrative for the election (in other words, there are no results which contradict one other like Romney winning Pennsylvania but somehow losing Virginia, which wouldn't make a lot of sense).
This is not to say the map I came up with doesn't need some explaining.
The most "surprising" outcomes I predicted are probably Romney winning Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire, while also losing Virginia. Each has a logical rationale.
Romney has campaigned heavily in Iowa twice now and the people there know him fairly well. President Obama only won Iowa in 2008 by nine points and, given the state of the economy, there is little doubt that he could easily lose five points off his vote total in any given state. That would make Iowa a true toss up.
Nevada has a heavy Mormon population and Romney has won it easily twice in primaries. Meanwhile, the state has been hit as hard as any other economically and Obama has twice made damaging statements about businesses not going there to visit. Romney has a real shot here.
New Hampshire is Romney's second home and neighbors (with lots of its refugees) the state he governed. While its motto "Live Free or Die" is somewhat overrated, there is still an anti-government bent there. Obama only won the state by nine points in 2008. Per electoral college vote, I think New Hampshire is the most important state in 2012 as many of Obama's paths to 270 are blocked without him winning it.
The most significant state overall will likely be Virginia, and here I think it will be very close with Obama ultimately prevailing. The reasoning here is that the intensity of the federal workers in the northern part of the state to come out and vote against Romney will be stronger than the urge by the heavily evangelical southern section to vote for a Mormon. If I were working for the Romney campaign, I would urge them to buy at least a couple of houses (with, or without, car elevators) in southern Virginia.
So, as you can see, an electoral college tie is hardly far-fetched. It may even be likely. If this scenario were to transpire, it would mean that the newly-elected House of Representatives would chose the president (assuming the media didn't convince a Romney elector to bolt to Obama) in a state-by-state vote, which would almost certainly mean that Obama would be sent packing. Interestingly, the Senate would chose the vice president, which could mean chaos if the Republicans don't take over complete control.
Again, this is an early, though educated, predication. No ones knows for sure what will happen, but barring significant and surprising events, this particular scenario is far more likely (as well as potentially dangerous) than anyone seems to currently realize.
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 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=mTI
a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
Do the minority Party in both the House and Senate could scuttle this by simply not being present so that a quorum could occur!!! This would rule!!!!
Total freaking mayhem!
It is more likely that a majority of GOP voters will vote for Romney as an anti-Obama statement (just as Dems pulled the lever for Kerry in 2004), and that a faction of GOP voters and independents will refuse to vote for either candidate.
We also cannot dismiss the large numbers of working class and female voters likely to vote for Obama as an anti-GOP statement, given the GOP's unfortunate record during Obama's presidency. GOP state houses voting to restrict womens' rights and attack unions have left a pretty bad taste. This will not be a landslide, but Romney has a significant uphill battle in front of him. Of course, people could just listen to Dick Morris, who's trying to peddle the spectacular idea that this will be a GOP blowout of 15 points.
1. Romney will purposefully name a VP candidate who doesn't make any difference to his ticket. This makes little sense - Romney will certainly try to get someone who can attract the harder right-wing voters to whom he has been having trouble appealing during the primary battles. It's unlikely he'll make a mistake like McCain did with Palin, but whoever he gets will be intended to get him votes from that group.
2. The debates will be "a wash". This assumes that Romney will become a much more energetic and exciting debater, and that Obama will suddenly falter in the one area that even his critics acknowledge is his greatest strength. The more likely scenario here is that Romney will struggle to hold his own in the debates and the right wing will try to spin it that Romney "won".
3. That Romney will be able to get enough GOP and independent voters enthusiastic about his candidacy to vote for him in these numbers. Romney's campaign history does not bear this out. It's more likely that he will continue to make critical gaffes, and that the pile of unfortunate statements already on the record will be held up for repeat viewing by Obama's reelection campaign.
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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Thanks.
http://www.nocommit.com/
Or their lack of a budget?
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via nationalpopularvoteinc
Seems like someone from the so called news business would be asking. . .
But already we are being swamped with propaganda and fake polls.
All this bs like the fake poll numbers put up for Romney today and this and other similar nonsense. . . .
Get ready everyone, the Republicans are now certain they can steal the vote in enough precincts to have at least another appointed President.
Are we really going to allow it?