After Super Tuesday

Read more Super Tuesday coverage on HuffPost

Now that Super Tuesday voters have made their wishes known, this is where we stand. On the Republican side, it's no surprise that Arizona Sen. John McCain is a lot closer today to securing the Republican nomination. He had significant victories in many Super Tuesday states.

For Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, Super Tuesday provided enough victory to build rationales for continuing their campaigns, but they are now well behind McCain in delegate count and momentum. Their campaigns may now be less about winning the nomination and more about making statements, and perhaps setting the stage for their political futures.

It's hard to picture a scenario to stop McCain, however, there are significant shadows lurking around the corner: Conservatives voted heavily for his two opponents. In fact, exit polls show four in 10 conservatives voted for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, as did four in 10 for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. McCain needs to consolidate the Republican conservative base. While he offers the Republicans a unique opportunity to grab the center of the political spectrum in the general election -- moderates and independents -- his real problem is obtaining support among that core of conservatives who neither like him nor trust him. His position on Iraq and national security should be of great appeal to conservatives, as should his biography of being a former prisoner of war. But, what is very troubling to them is that he has not been a Republican stalwart, he has little or no economic plan, and he is moderate on immigration.

On the other hand, he offers Republicans a very unique chance to neutralize the issue of illegal immigration and its negative impact on the all-important Hispanic vote. McCain alone can help stem the tide of declining Hispanic support for Republicans.

There is also the opportunity for Republican conservatives to unite behind McCain and take advantage of Democratic disunity. That's a choice that conservatives have to make for themselves.

Democrats have a few very important choices too. Will this be 1932 and a chance to elect an historic candidate with an historic mission for change? That could be either the first woman or the first African American. Also, Democrats have an opportunity to turn this into a new New Deal, or a similar 1980 Reagan moment. Each of those cases offered a package for change with a new kind of vision. I have said elsewhere that Franklin Roosevelt did not have a New Deal until after his campaign. That came after he read the will of the moment, and that came after the election.

On the other hand, will Democrat race degenerate into a repeat of 1968? That year, supporters of Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, who were very opposed to the war in Vietnam, refused to warm up to party nominee Hubert Humphrey. Their lukewarm support cost Humphrey the election, and helped to elect Nixon by one point.

Now we will turn to some demographics. Each candidate has created a coalition, and they are revealed in Tuesday's exit polls.

• For Clinton, it's older women, Hispanics, and the oldest voters.
• For Obama, it's the very young, African Americans, liberals, and college educated voters. Obama also now gets 40% of the white male vote.

But, in order for either of the two candidates to secure the nomination, they must have greater crossover appeal. What separates these two candidates is not simply personality and tone, it's the fact that there are warring demographics that represent each candidacy. For Clinton, it's older women feeling that this is the last glass ceiling to break during their lifetime. For Obama, it's young voters and African Americans who are saying it's our turn and that the U.S. image both overseas and to its own citizens is at stake.

These conflicts represent serious rifts in the Democratic Party, and the longer it takes to heal those rifts the greater the advantage for McCain and the Republicans. In summary, lots of choices here need to be made. Will African Americans accept Clinton? Will young people vote in great numbers even if Obama is not the candidate? Will older women reject Obama? What will conservatives do?

About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.

Read more Super Tuesday coverage on HuffPost

Comments

[rjcrane]

Just how many Independents and women voters or even Republican women do you think will vote for a pig like McCain once they hear how he cheated on and then abandoned his first wife with children for a much younger and rich trophy wife that could advance his political ambitions? And this coming soon after his first wife was seriously disfigured in an accident? McCain's divorce might even be uglier than what happened to both Giuliani's and Newt Gingrich's wives who were also carelessly discarded, cheated on, and/or then left for younger women. What surprises me is that the media went after both Gingrich and Giuliani but has left McCain alone on this issue. Why? Because it happened a while back? Because no one wants to attack a former POW who's been falsely labeled a war hero? We must not allow McCain to hide behind his POW status and become immune from a very serious look at his past including his divorce from his first wife, his involvement in the Keating 5 scandal and how his wife's family money aided by bootlegging [her father was convicted on federal charges at least once] might have been funneled into McCain's political career.

RJ Crane, topplebush.com

[abroadabroad]

I don't know why anyone would regard Obama's purported attraction to young voters as a selling point. Anyone who has been young and lived to tell about it has to admit that young people are basically stupid. It wouldn't be so bad if they weren't oblivious to this fact, but unfortunately they usually also happen to think they are really, really smart and it's all those other people who are clueless. That's pretty much their job at their age, so it's forgivable, but they should not be considered to be authorities on what is good for the country. That the term sophomore has been reserved for two measely years of sophomoric behavior is a failure of language.

A screaming pack of suburban college students at a political rally is indistinguishable from a screaming pack of suburban college students at a homecoming pep-rally. They are there to get caught up in the hype and the fever. They are not only not interested in the content of what gets said, they won't show up if they think anything there, like say a detailed discussion of healthcare reform, so much as threatens to allow them to yawn.

That is because these are walking bundles of hormones without a real care in the world, who expect nothing more from a presidential campaign than to get swept off their feet.

[JohnCitizen]

SWIFT BOATING 2008

Since 1972, Democrats have been very good at nominating their worst candidate and surest loser for the general election! The list is memorable: George McGovern in 1972 with Republican dirty tricks on Ed Muskie helping, Michael Dukakis in 1988, John Kerry in 2004. Well, it’s time for another debacle and general election that only the Democrats could lose!

The Republicans have already smeared and slimed Hillary Clinton for 16 years. She is “swift boat” proof! However, NOT SO for Barack Hussein Obama; it’s clear that the Republicans can smear him with their standard weapon of fear so bad that lofty words and debate will be meaningless. Osama will be lucky to get 35% of the vote in the general election.

SO, LET’S ALL ENJOY OUR OBAMACIDE!!! It’s nothing new, just our quadrennial mindless search for love. Afterward, maybe (unlike with John Kerry), we can sit and wonder why this fateful election was lost…

[Simone]

They are 'at war' only on the blogs and I doubt too many of the 'my candidate or I'm voting for John McCain' types will make it to the national convention. The average delegate will be a reasonable and thoughtful person who is invested in the future of the Democratic Party.

[SteveCox]

Well I guess my Salvadorian immigrant wife is a better pollster than you for Cal. Next time you may want to check with her. I was worried that Obama would win big after seeing your 14 point prediction. She told me not worry, Hispanics love Clinton!

It was crowded at the polling place in Korea Town Los Angeles. Everyone wanted Hilliria! Muchos Grasias mi amigos y amigas! And to the Koreans too.

24 points isn't that bad, John. If you think about it, you were 75% right.

[vbond]

THE SOLUTION:

An Open Letter to The American People, from Al Gore:

I am today announcing my candidacy for the Vice Presidency of The United States of America.

I realize that this announcement may seem to some to be a case of diminished hopes and expectations.

Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Since 2000, the battle that I have waged for years against ignorance and complacency about the worsening condition of our planet has advanced beyond my wildest dreams.

The recognition that I have personally received in that time is a reflection not so much of my personal efforts as it is an indication of the broad recognition that climate change is the over-arching social and political issue of our time.

The war in Iraq will end. The present economic downturn will end. And we as a nation and as a civilization will survive both.

But more of us than ever now realize that if we do not soon solve the problem of climate change, we may not survive as either a nation or a civilization.

I am deeply appreciative and humbled by the fact that the majority of people in this country had the confidence to vote for me as their President, and I believe that I am at least as qualified as I was eight years ago to fill that office.

But times have changed, and I believe that I have the unique opportunity to make a critical contribution to our national survival: as Vice President.

Why?

Two fundamental reasons.

First, because, in that office, I would have the opportunity to focus the power and resources of our nation on our planet's climate and environmental crises.

Second, because I may have the opportunity to work with a man whom I trust to support the necessary transformation of our government and our society.

That man is Barack Obama.

He alone among our presidential candidates has the vision, the tools, and the judgment to empower the changes that we must all make.

I would proudly serve the American people as his - and your - Vice President.

Albert A. Gore

[army193]

Could you have been off, if in fact there is some Hundreds of thousand ballets not being counted in Calif?

[CAPTAINSKIPPY]

A repeat of 1968 is possible: McCain is a second choice for Obama supporters, if Hillary is nominated??! Does Obama share McCain's values and ideals, not Hillary's? And McCain's outlook for Iraq war (another 100 years there,maybe more; more wars coming too)? Hard to believe, but go ahead and ruin my day. After you explain your vote to your grandkids, let me know how it went. Thanks.

[jeanniem]

"Warring demographs"? Somebody needs to tease this out for me a bit. I'm probably among your definition of "older women" at 54. And as the overwhelming majority of the 75% of Obama supporters at my caucus, I'm also white. Whoever those Clinton women are, who is their adversary among the Obama voters.

Seriously, I have heard a great deal of commentary on the Obama college educated voters and the Clinton high school educated. David Brooks talks incessantly about this, same phenom as Bill Bradley (college) Al Gore (high school). I must be missing something, but it makes absolutely no sense to me.

[rbrooks]

Take heart, Mr. Zogby. Someone owes an explanation, but it isn't you.

I bet you factored in some of those 700,000 independents who attempted to vote in LA alone, and were disenfranchised by the confusion over the double bubble ballot.

Voters who wished to vote as independents, who didn't notice and check the exactly right bubble, are out of luck: those ballots were disallowed. Obama lost the state by some 400,000 votes, and one of his strengths is his appeal to independent voters.

It's entirely possible that, absent California's version of the butterfly ballot, Obama may have carried California comfortably.

Which brings me to New Hampshire. The "recount" was a farce - so obvious it was comical.

Observers from Black Box Voting, who are serious and credible people, have posted videos at www.blackboxvoting.org. They show the boxes that held the ballots that were to be recounted, most of which were slit. (The NH secretary of state said, when asked why the cut boxes, that they are a poor state and they, um, recycle.)
The seals on the ballot boxes pulled off like post-it notes - video of the observers putting on and peeling off the "security seals" and dying laughing.

Video of a confrontation the night before the recount, when the NH Secretary of State was filmed not explaining why he was putting the ballot boxes in an insecure room instead of in a locked vault, under guard, as required.

Totals from the counties that were counted manually, and not tabulated by Diebold, were almost the exact reverse of the totals reported in the Diebold counties.

Put together, that's thought-provoking circumstantial evidence that the governor, a Clinton ally, may have had someone flip the totals. The beauty of Diebold is that we will never know.

On balance, Mr. Zogby, I hope you will quit apologizing. The rest of us might, before we join the MSM mob calling for your head, pay more attention to early exit polls, who's counting, and who runs the board of elections.

[LionEater]

Zogby was actually right about California-- Obama won by around 12 -13% on Feb. 5. The only problem is he didn't include the early voting, which is where Clinton's win comes from.

[May2002]

Mr. Zogby:

Could it be because subsconsciously you wanted Obama to win as a result, you unconsciously overestated African American votes and underestated Hispanic votes before the Super Tuesday?

Please respond.

[SCCavie93]

The winning combination = Obama/Edwards

[SCCavie93]

Hillary will not be able to win against the likes of McCain! She is far to polarizing and will only take the party BACK to the DRAMA of the 1990's.

Considering the fact that it is 2008, I think it time to move forward and NOT backward. How can one claim to be progressive with a record that mirrors moderate Republicans???

Wake up Democrats or loose both the white house and ability to repair the courts.

[RichLiberal]

Zogby is an Obama supporter. He has compromised his professional values and rather than provide accurate polling data, simply makes up numbers that he think will rev up the Obama supporters and discourage the Clinton supporters. He has used this technique repeatedly, exhibit A being the NH primary, but unfortunately for him he was caught in the act there.
Yesterday, sure enough, there he was again on Yahoo with his trusty sidekick John Whitesides reporting that Obama was surging to double digit leads over Clinton in California. Wisely the MSM decided to pass this time, because you can't fool everybody all the time.
Notice how Zogby characterizes Clinton supporters as old ladies and very old people and Hispanics. As opposed to the young liberal college educated Obama people. Guess what, I am an older college-educated white liberal with three young college-educated children, who are also quite liberal and see thru the Obama fraud. In fact, guess what, last night you saw the core of the Democratic Party reject Obama in Mass, Calif, NY, and other states that hold a grand total of 147 electoral votes. Obama on the other hand pulled 111 electoral votes from states, half of which haven't given a Dem an electoral vote in half a century, and he won with numbers like 25,000 compared to Hillary's wins in states with numbers like NJ's 600,000. Time to wake up, dreamers. Game over. Fraud exposed. Adult working people aren't buying Obama/Zogby fairy tales.