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A Slight Advantage for Obama

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Recently John Zogby spoke at the CompTIA Annual Members Meeting. The following is an excerpt from his remarks.

Our latest JZ Analytics poll, from three weeks ago, shows Obama ahead 45 percent to 36 percent. Two newer polls have Obama and Romney at 45 percent each.

The race is very competitive, 45 percent is not good news for either. Frankly, if I look at my polling exactly eight years ago Bush and Kerry were also tied at 45 percent in mid-April. I'd have to say though, today we have a slight advantage to Obama.

While 45 percent is not great it is modestly acceptable. The polling reveals that Obama is where he needs to be among the target groups that propelled him to the presidency. In 2008 he was polling at 69 percent among Hispanics, and in JZ Analytics latest poll he is at 69 percent among Hispanics when pitted against Romney. His further advantage is that we anticipate significantly more Hispanics voting this year, as has been the trend.

On the flip side Romney only gets 24 percent of Hispanics, which could be devastating. Can Romney change his tough position on immigration without looking like a flip-flopper? Again.

African Americans are normally 9 percent of the total vote, they were almost 11 percent in 2008 and Obama won 95 percent of their record turnout. Polls by JZ Analytics, and others, show Obama polling into the 90's already with only 1 or 2 percent voting Republican. Earlier disappointment in Obama among African Americans has receded.

Among women voters, the gender gap is back as big as ever, and the cause is not only the President's handling of spending issues on healthcare and education but more importantly conservative statements on contraception. This one issue alone is bringing young women back over to Obama.

Young people could be Obama's one big worry. He received 67 percent of the under 30 vote in 2008. I have seen his support climb back up to the high 50 percent range, but there is serious disillusionment and a growing libertarian sentiment among young people who feel jaded.

Finally, there are 12 states that Obama won in 2008, which leaned heavily Republican in 2010. As I write this today, Obama is either tied or holds a slight lead in all 12.

So today, slight advantage Obama.

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