Obama in Denver: A Defining Moment

As the Democrats gather for their quadrennial convention in Denver, it is clear that Sen. Barack Obama is on the ropes. After leading John McCain in presidential matchups for months, our new Reuters/Zogby poll this past week shows Obama trailing by 5 points nationally. This is a 12 point turnaround from the Reuters/Zogby poll in July, which showed Obama comfortably leading McCain 47%-40%. While it seems dramatic, we need to understand that this has been a slow and steady transition. And the reasons are clear.

Obama has clearly lost high levels of support from young voters and liberals. Many liberals are tough and demand purity and Obama has appeared to compromise on issues dear to their hearts like civil liberties, Iraq, and off-shore oil drilling. Similarly, some young people are beginning to question whether the compromising centrist Obama is the different sort of politician they were looking for.

I recall shocking reporters during the European portion of Obama's recent overseas trip, suggesting that the trip would actually benefit McCain because it would scare conservatives. For those on the right who were squidgy about McCain, seeing such adulation for Obama suggested that this liberal Democrat could win and it was time to rally around the Republican -- even if he wasn't their favorite. Adding insult to injury for conservatives, having Obama embraced by "Europeans" was just over the top.

McCain seized opportunities to display actionable leadership. A strong majority of Americans support off-shore oil drilling (the devil is certainly in the details, but Americans are hungry for action on energy) and McCain came out forthrightly in support while Obama vacillated. Then the Russian crisis in Georgia allowed McCain to display his tough side with clarity. It did not help Obama that he was on vacation and somewhat out of the loop in Hawaii. Speaking of vacation, McCain gave some hard punches to Obama on his "celebrity" status and inexperience, much of this while Obama was away.

Obama still has to contend with the Clintons and a new poll shows that only 56% of Clinton-backers would vote for Obama, while 21% intend to vote for McCain.

All and all, August has been rough for Sen. Obama and it has raised the issue that August has been a cruel month for Democratic nominees historically. Remember Jimmy Carter was leading Gerald Ford in 1976 by 30 points. His downward spiral began in August and Carter ultimately won by only one point. Michael Dukakis in 1988 was mauled by George H.W. Bush and squandered a 17-point lead in July to go down in defeat. John Kerry was famously "swiftboated" in August of 2004 and never recovered his image.

But this year could be different. The three previous Democrats suffered after their nomination convention. Arguably, Obama has taken his hits and now gets to refocus his campaign in late August. No doubt he has to have a great convention. Hillary Clinton must rally her supporters to Obama. She needs to do that as much for him as she does for her own future. And Obama has to redefine who he is and what he stands for in a brilliant convention speech. That's a tall order, but remember, all of this started for Sen. Obama with a brilliant convention speech four years ago.

What to look for beyond next week? Obama cannot buy enough "experience" between now and November, but he needs to be Jack Kennedy. He needs to clearly demonstrate "that the torch has passed to a new generation" and lay out a new, more positive image of America in the world of the 21st Century, a vision for hope and opportunity. He needs to show that his very presence at the podium is an immigrant success story, much like Kennedy's and millions of Americans. As for McCain, ironically, he has consolidated his Republican base. He now gets 83% of Republicans and over 80% of conservatives who support him against Obama. It's time for McCain to accentuate the fact that he's a maverick, a moderate, that he is anti-government, that he knows firsthand how dysfunctional Washington is and that he is the right man to clean it up. Sounds a lot like Harry Truman.

John Kennedy vs. Harry Truman in 2008. Now that's worth the price of admission.

For more Huffington Post coverage from the Democratic National Convention, visit our Politics @ the DNC page, our Democratic Convention Big News Page, and our HuffPost bloggers' Twitter feed, live from Denver.

Comments

[James53R]

McCain, Bush and Ted Kennedy could not get an immigration bill through Congress last
year.....w­hat makes you think McCain compares with Harry Truman. I think McCain is
more like George Wallace!

[James53R]

McCain, Bush and Ted Kennedy combined could not get a bill on immigration passed through
Washington last year......­What makes you think that McCain as President would be like
Harry Truman? I think this election would be more like John Kennedy (Obama, of course)
against Curtis LeMay!!

[siegfried89]

"They" say Obama is not experienced enough to lead the nation. The guidance of George W Bush, who had zero experience in just about everything, leads us into a disastrous "war", a failing economy, massive debt and endemic corporate corruption. That is called good leadership?

[NetProphet]

I still think a little bit of OBAMA RALLYING the CLINTON supporters wouldn't be a bad idea. After all, she's done it. Now it's his turn to TAKE THE LEAD!

BTW - - - Obama deserved his vacation. That political strategy show in Georgia has, AGAIN, all the markings of a "Karl Rove" type of DIRTY POLITICS. And today, the news about possible American guns in the Georgian country comes at a time when Hillary Clinton will be delivering her speech....­.another damper compliments of the Bush team!

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Zogby is dead right. Obama's campaign is spinning out of control, and the convention is his best chance to stop the drift, correct his course and regain forward momentum. Obama really ought to ring Zogby for a chat once in while. For instance, Zogby says that Obama must redefine himself via his acceptance as the undisputed leader of a new generation now carrying the torch of progress -- and I dare anybody to challenge that concept. To accomplish that assignment, Obama has got to draw stark contrasts between the past eight years and his vision for the next eight. In other words, Obama has got to attack the fraud, the folly and the failures of Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice and the entire cast of characters straight out of an unpublished Steven King novel: The Armageddon Cult, wherein an evangelical cult establishes a theocracy in the USA and enforces their holy policy to launch the Rapture and summon the Apocalypse. Obama can do it, and Zogby has his finger on the pulse of the American electorate like nobody else.

[Jenoah2008]

Recognized or not, the novel rests on non-fictio­n--reality­--that these 21st Century crusaders have actually TWISTED the teachings of Jesus Christ into some ethnocentered, war mongering spiritual drama created to impress other men and church-goers that they have been called to defend and help God to 'create ' The End --who already is-- when they were not present in The Beginning. This is as radical as radical Islam. By definition, God needs neither help nor defense. He is the defense. These self-deceived bigots believe that they, who have not yet sought the kingdom of God truthfully to come in their individual hearts---reflected in all of their personal behavior, drawing others to seek God--are actually called upon to establish the said kingdom by bullying a secular society-- which runs under its laws and which, they are called to submit, according to the scriptures-- into persecuting others who cannot see, understand or desire God's Kingdom precisely because these hypocrites are blocking the view.

[mivogo]

How the hell could any Clinton supporter not vote for Obama? For starters, the next President can tip the Supreme Court to reverse Rowe vs. Wade. Are you out of your minds?

[bodhibabe]

mivogo wrote "How the hell could any Clinton supporter not vote for Obama? For starters, the next President can tip the Supreme Court to reverse Rowe vs. Wade. Are you out of your minds?"
In a phrase...

[112985]

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND - WHY SHOULD WE VOTE FOR OBAMA - HE DISSED HILLARY - NEVER VETTED HER AND LAST NIGHT IT SHOWS HE SHOULD HAVE HAD HER ON THE TICKET HE WOULD BE WINNING. ALSO THE DNC NOW IS GOING TO FULLY SEAT FLORDIA AND MICHIGAN - IS THAT FAIR!!!!!!! WELLL I COULD CARE LESS WHAT THE ROCK STAR OBAMA SAYS I WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM NOR WILL I VOTE DEMOCRATIC TICKET AGAIN!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!! PA

[112985]

I AM HRC SUPPORTER - SHE HIT IT ON THE NAIL LAST NIGHT - BUT I STILL AND WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA - WHO CAN BELIEVE THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE HE HAS TO MANY CHARACTES ISSUES. I HAVE TO VOTE JOHN MCCAIN

[rmholt]

The Progressives warn us not to fall for the Politics of Fear and then they holler about Roe v Wade, 100 years of war, and McCain will be the twin of Bush.

As the tearful HRC supporter said after her speech: Experience means something.

Marie

[ApolloSpeaks]

KENNEDY & OBAMA THE LA DODGERS AND COLORADO ROCKIES

Another ominous sign of coming defeat for the JFK wannabe is that Kennedy was in Los Angeles when he accepted his party's nomination while Obama will be doing that in Denver. Why is this ominous? In July of 1960 Los Angeles was the home of the World Champion Dodgers while Denver is the home of the Colorado Rockies who lost the World Series last year. Bad choice of cities like Obama's choice of veep.

[bodhibabe]

I sorta liked McCain 8 years ago. I would've never voted for him then.... and certainly not now. He is NO LONGER that maverick he once was... he's all dried up and pleassssssssse don't insult the good name of HST by comparing McCain to him. I know, I probably wouldn't have voted for HST either... but that's another matter.
I'm very excited about the Obama-Biden ticket... it actually gives me hope.... that America is ready.
A friend's brother lives on the Western Slope of Colorado (extremely conservative) and he said that he is going to vote for Obama, but he wouldn't volunteer, wear a pin or put a bumper sticker on his car. This silent group is everywhere--& they are fed up. On the other hand, my boss seems to think that people are only ready for a Black man to be president.­.. AS SHOW... lip service e.g. before they walk into the voting booth... not that they would actually vote for him--only say they did--gives me the creeps.
I'm counting on the silent ones and our youth who in most cases couldn't care less about race (in a good way), to come out in droves... like they did to set the pace with Iowa.

[Mojane]

If Obama were white and named Joe Shmoo, he'd win hand's down. If the media were consistently clear and insistent that, "No, he's not a Muslim (like there's anything wrong with that and why aren't they educating the dumb-as-toast freaked-out voters about Islam in the world), and never has been, and yes, McCain is completely unqualified to be President as he is experienced at what?" perhaps the polls would reflect at least educated voting public and the numbers would be overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. Also, if he had had a safe lead, he might not have felt the need for his miserable compromising.

[mijoda]

I agree. I was very turned off by O's FISA vote, but I would not vote for McCain if you held a gun to my head.

[112985]

HONEY I AM HRC SUPPORTER OBAMA IS NOT QUALIFED!!!!! THIS COUNTRY IS IN TO MUCH TROUBLE TO TAKE CHANCES ON A TRAINEE!!! VOTE MCCAIN!!!

[Semper]

The fact is, Obama is going to be the next President of this country. The other fact is, many of us are not going to get there with him. America does not have the capacity to move all of us up that mountain at the same time. Some of us get it and some of us don't. Its just the way it is. Relax. If you don't get there and when you figure it out that change is here, whcih is a clue, Gomen. a sai

[doctor4kids]

I hate to sound like a pessimist but I'm getting really scared by the polls. What if McCain DOES win???? At best we'd have four years of Congressional gridlock since McCain would be up against a VERY hostile Congress.

It's time for the American people wise up. What are they afraid of?

[jeersforfears]

The American people are wising up - they realize that the Democratic party is laying out a Marxian pipe dream for America, replete with twists and turns that disguise that reality from uneducated, inexperienced people.

[bobbybee]

Really? Marxian? Would that be Zeppo maybe? Or were you thinking of something like the Republic of Fredonia ...

[doctor4kids]

A Marxian pipe dream? Do you really believe that? We are the only industrialized country that doesn't have some form of universal health care. And by all objective measures (like infant mortality, longevity, etc.) we are getting less and paying a whole lot more.

It seems that with every election, the right-wing gets people worked up over things that are essentially distractio­ns--Barack Obama's religion, Michelle Obama's patriotism, gay marriage, flag burning, Willie Horton, etc.

[Daps]

Please give us more Polls so we can know what to think!

[rmholt]

I saw JFK's 1960 acceptance speech and there is no way Obama can do what JFK did. He challenged the American people to be our best. He didnt give a list of goodies like Santa Claus. Maybe we dont want to be challenged. Maybe we want Santa Claus. Maybe we want to elect a Black Man so we can feel special about ourselves instead of addressing race issues, electing a QUALIFIED Black man or woman and BE special or at least better.

JFK wrote a book (not about himself) was a war hero, and had served in Congress and the Senate. He was thought to be young and green and the USSR challenged him right away.

For the first time ever I am not voting Democrat. I have SOME standards.

Marie

[imani1107]

I'm interested to know what comes under your set of "standards!" I think if Obama was 'white' we would not be having this conversation. I think you need to confront your real prejudices!

[truthmachine]

You have neither standards nor intelligence.

[JC1c1]

I support Obama, because he doesnt tell me that one person shouldnt marry another, he doesnt tell me what a person can and cant do with their own bodies. He doesnt tell me that I should be scared, of every minute of every day. I am tired of the hate, and the fear propaganda. Hearing over and over again that if I question my govt I dont love my country. That if I dont like things the way they are, that either I shut up or leave my country. I have heard this several times, when that is the very thing that America is against. This country is supposed to be about being able to stand up for what you believe. What is wrong in wanting better for your country?

From McCain I hear war, war with Iraq, war with Iran, another cold war with Russia. I hear worse healthcare, an economy he admitted he knew nothing about. A top advisor saying we are a nation of whiners, bc we are tired of seeing this country going from 3 classes to 2. The rich and the poor. I am tired of seeing the middle class foot the bill. Seeing the rich get richer off of wars, while the poor and middle class fight it.

Those are my standards. Those are my morals. I refuse to back a candidate who helped send troops off to war, and not make sure they have good equipment, armour, and a good plan.

[112985]

he is telling you that now - but he will flip flop!!!!!! and change his mind.

[Rescisco]

This election is a "defining moment" for Americans. We need to stop being distracted by false distinctions, the vanity of faulty logic, and the insanity of uninformed or ill informed policy making. The question really is, who is best prepared to understand and lead in the 21st Century. Take a few minutes and look at and listen to the attached (now four years old but extremely relevant) and tell me who understands and can lead that world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljbI-363A2Q

The degree to which we really understand the pace of change and the necessity for intelligent understanding and creative 21st Century leadership the more John McCain fades out of the picture.

[SouthpawSass]

Oh, I don't think I should have an opinion on anything until I see what the polls tell me others are thinking..­.

Seriously, is anybody as tired of polls as I am? Should we poll that?

[sandpiper1]

Yes, polls are deceiving. I think most polsters poll certain areas/people affilicated with a specific party to bolster their arguments. They pose quesitons which favour their own candidate. I think the EVC is more accurate.