Obama's Got His Groove Back

With the North Carolina and Indiana primaries now behind us, what do we know about the race for the White House? The answer is, a lot more than we knew on Tuesday morning.

What we have suspected for weeks we now have had essentially confirmed -- that the fall election for president will be a race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Obama -- finally -- all but closed the deal by winning the North Carolina primary convincingly, and by nearly winning in Indiana. Even after her double-digit win in the Pennsylvania primary election two weeks ago, it was clear New York Senator Hillary Clinton needed to have very strong performances in Indiana and North Carolina this week. That didn't happen.

It was appropriate that the nomination race would essentially conclude in North Carolina, the home of the famous "four corners" offense perfected in the 1960s and 1970s by Tarheels college basketball coach Dean Smith. That offense, which was employed by Smith's championship teams after they built early leads in games, was essentially designed to run out the clock by spreading his players out into the corners of the basketball floor and passing the ball back and forth until time ran out.

Building a lead and then sitting on it was the whole idea.

We know Obama likes basketball and I wouldn't be surprised to learn he was a big fan of North Carolina basketball. His campaign this year would make Dean Smith proud. After building an early lead, Obama has simply held on until the clock finally ran out on Hillary Clinton.

For all the polling, campaign appearances, television ads and media hype, the bottom-line numbers in the race have barely changed in recent weeks. Though momentum in the Democratic race has swung back and forth, Obama has maintained a small lead in both convention delegates and the popular vote nationwide.

That is not to say the race has not changed the political fundamentals on the ground. Much has changed. The Barack Obama once seen as a glimmering political statue, the human embodiment of hope, change and promise is no more. That image is long gone, corroded by the caustic sermons of a now-former preacher, a neighbor with a terrorist past, an impertinent comment to San Francisco liberals, and a lapel occasionally devoid of a flag pin.

For a time, Obama became just another politician, exchanging charges and counter charges with Clinton, even running negative ads that he once decried as part of an old style of politics that he was running to end. It was inevitable that he would encounter such difficulty, because he was running, after all, against a woman who is widely considered one of the smartest and one of the toughest, with a husband to match.

His knuckles scraped and his body bruised, Obama kept fighting, and he emerged Wednesday morning with every reason to believe his nomination battle was ending and his general election fight for the White House was beginning. In his victory speech Tuesday night, he even took a swipe at Republican rival John McCain. And, at times in that speech, he even sounded a bit like the Obama of old - more hopeful and more optimistic.

Finally, Obama's got his groove back.

Not that all his problems will go away now that he has the nomination all but locked up. The controversies that dogged him in the primaries will still haunt him in the general election. But now that he has weathered them once, it makes him more able to handle them again. Someone once said that the best training a U.S. president can get for the job is running a campaign to get the job. With his short resume in Washington, this is particularly true in Obama's case.

North Carolina was very good to Obama on Tuesday, but he is far from being crowned America's next political king. There is much more voting to occur before a coronation takes place. And, in a land where the process to select the next leader lasts longer than any other, the end of one election season simply signals the beginning of another.

It's time to reset the clock and have another jump ball. Obama will notice that this next arena will be bigger and the crowd will be more supportive -- and vocal -- for both teams. But for Obama, the biggest challenge will be to transition out of his "stall" offense and actually try to score some points. The four corners offense doesn't work if you don't first have a lead.

Comments

[tattery202]

I've said a lot of negative things about the American voters in the past 7 years. I've always been amazed how we fall for the old tricks and the fact that Bush is still in office just astounds me. I'm pleased to say though that I'm beginning to have hope. Voters are beginning to educate themselves on the issues and are not falling for the pandering and the outright lies that are conveniently explained away after the vote. There's still some work to be done but I have hope.

[liseworks]

THANK YOU, SMART N. CAROLINANS !! DITTO, INDIANA ! TRUST IN OBAMA - HE'LL MAKE US PROUD ....

[dsf]

No no no! If you vote Obama you will regret it. His past is too shady and at this point, all he's done is give nice speeches. I can't beleave I am writing this but 8 more years of Bush sound's better!

[Gemma08]

Substantiate.

[idest]

I can't you're writing that either. You must be a Republican.

[jsarets]

The momentum swung back to Obama at the last minute because of the gas tax issue. There are two perceptual planes on which candidates compete in a campaign: right vs. wrong and strong vs. weak. Obama opened the primary campaign with a strategy of shadowing Clinton on policy while using his hope/change/unity narrative to project strength.

It worked until Wright came along, at which point Obama started getting hammered by Clinton on strong/weak with very few policy distinctions to go after her on right/wrong. The gas tax gave Obama an opening to make the case that he's right and she's wrong, and the electorate bought that argument by a substantial margin.

Moving on to the general, there's certainly no shortage of surface area between the platforms of Obama and McCain, which is a good thing for Obama, because he's likely to have problems on strong/weak. In his NC victory speech, Obama outlined a general election strategy based on characterizing McCain's platform as clearly being on the wrong side of public opinion. He'll portray him as McSame and McWrong.

Obama will seek to turn this election into a referendum on the Bush administration, because that's an argument he cannot lose. If you liked Bush, you'll love McCain. That's the message. The Bush connection puts the 50% of Americans whose opinion of Bush is "strongly unfavorable" in Obama's column, and the rest is gravy for the landslide.

[NABNYC]

People get ready, there's a train a comin
Picking up passengers from coast to coast
All you need is faith to hear that diesel comin
Ya don't need no ticket you just get on board

This is a great song, a slave spiritual, sung by so many artists. My favorite being the Chambers Brothers (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0FnjkSFwss) but lots of other versions by lots of other artists can be seen and heard at You Tube.

The point is that Obama has got a movement going, that he appeals to people's faith and hope and their highest honor, and people desperately want to be part of a political movement with the goal of restoring decency and fairness to this country.

And then we have Hillary, out campaigning saying that white Catholics and women won't vote for Obama. Her campaign is descending into the madness of another political organization that arose in another country during a period of despair and depression, that campaign also oriented around racism and appealing to the worst in people.

People get ready, there's a train a comin
Picking up passengers from coast to coast ....

[liseworks]

Hear, hear !!!! You know what's goin' on ....!

[US55588144]

I'm not getting on that train.

[lucky54]

Clinton is saying that white, hard working, women, Catholics, Latinos won't vote for Obama ..... hmmmm.... Here I am white, middle age (54) woman, Catholic, hard working .... OK I am not Latino, but I am for OBAMA from the very beginnig !!!! So I fit in 4 out of 5 categories she is counting on and ??? No, is not working for Clinton, I used to admire (at some point) Bill, now thanks to Hillary's campaign I lost all the respect to both of them. She did everything possible to prove that they're selfish, power hungry, ignorant, awful people .... Go away Billary your train is looooong gone.
I jump with Obama for a ride to bright future, the future with integrity, honor, humble respect to all Americans, not only the "choosen"

[catsmom]

Hillary did not win PA by "double digits". She won by 9.2 %. Remember: Hillary 54.6 % to Obama's 45.4%.

[nomobull]

YEAH BUT WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 10.8 PLUS 9.2. LEAD SHE HAD.

[richardgordon]

Maybe in Zogby's eyes Obama is no longer the "glimmering political statue, the human embodiment of hope", but in my eyes he has certainly distinguished himself as more than "just another politician". For one thing, in spite of the muck that Hillary and the media have been slinging at him he has not stooped to the mean-spiritedness and nastiness of Karl Rove level politics. He has behaved with decorum and integrity. In a word, he has been, "Presidential". This will serve him well when he becomes President of the United States.

As for the shine on his "glimmering political statute" being sullied. It is well to remember that nobody can possibly live up to the ridiculous image of perfection that potential presidents are supposed to live up to. Didn't John Kennedy consort with some pretty shady characters before becoming president? In any event, aren't we supposed to ruminate on the political legend of Obama after his career in politics, not before his career begins?

[burnt]

"North Carolina was very good to Obama on Tuesday, but he is far from being crowned America's next political king. There is much more voting to occur before a coronation takes place."

Please stick to your numbers and forget the royal analagies... if there is one thing that you should take away from this campaign, is a full understanding that millions of *people* are now in control of the political process and that dynastic days are over. We intend to crown no political leaders in the future. They will be much more answerable to those who elected them to office... you can count on it.

[ann1]

Very good!

[NoSillyName]

Zogby, how petty and stupid to belabor Wright and lack of lapel pin. The MSM has talked these topics to death. If any voters want to say they did not vote for Obama for either of these two reasons (or both), I'd be willing to bet they used those as a cover for a racial reason.

BTW, does HRC wear a lapel pin on those pantsuits?

[Brooklynindy]

Uh, NoSilly, I think he was practicing satire...

[TheFriendlyAtheist]

Great post John, as always.

P.S. Is anyone else out there having trouble replying to the Amb. Ginsburg blog?

[MOwest]

Your parting comments suggest that Obama isn't capable of "scoring points". How do you think he gained an insurmountable lead over Clinton? I don't think he needs to transition to anything. I say, more of the same. Clearly, he is running a rock solid, grass roots campaign that has led to an endless barage of offense as evidenced by his success in caucuses, primaries, and dollars raised. Couple what he's currently doing with the support of the other half of the party and it's game over.

[CaseyBabes]

Listened to his "victory" speech the other night after NC and heard the usual tiresome, circular bromides about his "hope for America" and "change" to the way DC does business. Couldn't help but think of Jesse Jackson minus the rhymes. The guy is a Marxist and I think the public will catch up to him, just like Zogby has caught on to the empty suit.

[HumeSkeptic]

Are you sure you heard Obama's speech? I doubt it. No sane person would make those comments after hearing that speech.

[ann1]

Evidently he heard the speech.....maybe you need to read the article again.

[Marcos54]

Kudos to Zogby, BTW- he was almost alone in picking up the swing back to Barack beginning about May 1.
The Phil-Ford-led UNC's team's loss to Marquette in the (pre-shot-clock) 1977 NCAA Championship game is the cruelest example of a team's going to the 4-corners too early and being unable to get its edge back when it needed it-

[kindofblue]

Wait. You're a professional. How do you say Hillary had a "double-digit" win in Penn? The figure I've consistently seen is 9.something (9.2). Do you have further info?

[Smartey]

OK. Say snotty things about Hillary all you want. You people go right ahead -- but be warned: When she gets the nomination, you'll be sorry.

Hillary and her investigative team have an "October surprise" to drop, very soon. It will devastate Obama, bringing to light some very unsavory activities in his personal past. I know of what I speak. I have been active in the Hillary campaign, and I have personally heard this information being discussed. I know what the story is. And it's bad.

And when the SuperDelegates switch to Hillary, and she's nominated in Denver -- these tacky posts and your follow-up comments will be dealt with. Dealing with Bill's bimbo eruptions was nothing -- just wait for the payback on this. You've been warned.

Hillary '08!!!!!!!

[SeaOats]

*yawn*

[tmbetterman]

“I know of what I speak”
Obviously you do not know too much, because the primary will be over, officially in August in Denver. By October it will be too late, unless, of course, like many people are speculating Hillary is planning on ruining Obama’s chances so she can run in 2012. I doubt that is the case. Hillary is staying in the race to mend fences in the Democratic Party, nothing more, nothing less. Stop deluding yourself, and start getting used to President Obama!

[vschicago]

I know that in October, the Clintons must attend a court hearing in CA (Paul vs Clinton) and defend themselves over charges of campaign finance fraud.

[BitJam]

If you look at Smartey's profile you will see that she/he is not a Clinton supporter. This person is just trying to stir up dissent among Democrats.

[obamagal]

Yup, he changes his tune just as much as Hillary does...

[Pammy1151]

I looked at the profile. We are talking serious TROLL here.