The Way We'll Be: First Globals and the Obama Victory

Does this 2008 Presidential election represent a realignment that puts Democrats in a commanding position for at least a generation? If we can assume that young voters, who gave Barack Obama their overwhelming support, will continue to vote for Democrats, the answer would seem to be yes.

According to national Election Day exit polls, voters ages 18-29 voted for Obama over Republican John McCain by a 66%-32% margin. Two other groups gave even higher levels of support to Obama: African-Americans at 95% and Latinos at 67%. African-American allegiance to Democrats is long-standing and rock-solid. Loyalty to Democrats among Latinos is growing, but does not have the history of African-American support. Four years ago, they favored Democrat John Kerry, 53%-40%.

Young African-Americans and Latinos were part of the generational wave to Obama. What may be more telling are the votes of white 18- to 29-year-olds, especially in each state. That data is available from the national exit polls for 46 states.

The national numbers show that Obama beat McCain among whites ages 18-29 by 54%-44%. For all white voters, McCain won, 55%-43%. Among each of the other voter age groupings (30-44, 45-64 and 65-plus), McCain's margin averaged 16 points.

If a Democrat can win the white vote in any state, that candidate's chances of taking the state are nearly certain. The national exit polls showed 21 states where Obama won the white 18-29 demographic by at least 10 points. Those states total 284 electoral votes. Among the states where data for that group was not available are Oregon, Washington and Vermont, where one would expect the young white vote for Obama surpassed the 10-point mark. Data was also not available for Washington, DC and its reliable three Democratic Electoral votes.

With those states included, Democrats currently have a hold on young white voters in states with 308 Electoral votes, 38 more than the 270 needed for election. Obama won all of those states, as well as these where he lost a majority of the white 18-29 group: Florida, Virginia and New Mexico. Data was not available for the one other state won by Obama, Colorado.

The obvious question is whether these young whites voted for Obama based on his personality and message, or whether their support is also due to issue and philosophy positions that separate Democrats from Republicans. Also, will new voters over the next 10 years have the same worldview as today's 18- to 29-year-olds?

At Zogby International, we have closely monitored the attitudes of young adults. In my book, The Way We Will Be, I use polling data to show that this First Global generation is more liberal, but not in a strictly orthodox political sense. In the book, I write:

"Are the kids politically "liberal"? That depends on whose 'liberal agenda' you're talking about. Are they liberal in a dictionary sense - that is, are they broad-minded, free of orthodoxy, willing to think things through on their own, resistant to imposed answers? Absolutely."

Those attitudes made Obama the ideal candidate for our First Globals. A generation so open to diversity and resistant to pat answers was naturally drawn to a man of mixed race who offered hope and practical approaches to solving national and world problems.

However, does that make them Democrats for the rest of their lives? How well Democrats wield power for global betterment is a part of the answer. Will absolute power again corrupt absolutely? Or will Democrats work to achieve that broadly defined liberal agenda embraced by the First Globals? Time will tell.

We can say with some certainty that these First Globals reject the Republicanism practiced by the dominant wing of the GOP, which appears to reject diversity and the new global realities of interdependence and connectedness. Republicans have no choice but to change their beliefs if they have any hope of coaxing First Globals into any new and truly big GOP tent. The same forces that have shaped today's under 30 voters look to be doubling down for the next wave of young adults. It is unlikely that current Republican orthodoxy will look any better to them.

It is always possible that the Obama administration could fail, or that world events could make even our First Globals turn inward to the GOP due to fear for personal and national survival. Counting on either is not a sound strategy for the Republican Party.

We could see great political upheaval forced by First Globals and those that follow. Will Republicans become a minor party wed to the past and rejected by the coming majority? Will Democrats continue to adapt in practical ways to world problems, or will their own orthodoxy sour tomorrow's mainstream? Will Republicans evolve into the party that moves beyond old ideologies and deals with change with a small-c conservative approach; or will a new political party emerge that fits that description?

John Zogby is President and CEO of Zogby International and the author of The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream (Random House).

Comments

[klude3005]

We as american voters realize that we have creaded a unique moment in history. President elect Barack Obama will be the first African-American president in United States history. To commemorate this timeless moment, i believe that the United States Treasury Deptartment should begin the pre stages of design and circulation of a new $25 bill that would feature President elect Barack Obama to be the face of the bill. I have been researching on the process of a new paper money, there is alot that goes into this process, that is why i believe that the beginning stages should be introduced promptly, so that come January our historic president and the citizens of America, will have a token of history that would remind us of this great nation that we live in.

[yodaveg]

numbers are tea leaves
whose reading speaks with great truth
about the reader

[kart0624]

Here are the first signs of problems, Obama starting to hire the Clinton machine to govern the nation.People have very short memories, it's true that much of the problems that the United States and world faces were started by pseudo-con­servatives in the Republican partyover the past two deacades. But, what were the Democrats doing? They stood by while illegal wars were waged, and habeus-corpus was suspended and so many other blantant violations. If Obama is truly going to be the leader who has great vision he would have people like Kucinich or Ron Paul in his administration, not a slight variation of the Clinton machine which is part of the larger problem that we are all facing. I say throw Emanuel out and people with any ties to the Clition machine, and start with people who have real progressive records. Anybody who ever supported the Iraq war should not be allowed to go anywhere near this administration.

[Carolab]

Just shut the right-wing echo chamber up and we'll be fine.

[bubbuh]

A fine analysis as usual.

But, the jury will be out on its accuracy for a long time. People do become more conservative as they age. But, political first impressions count, especially if that first administration gains positive political and human cannotations over time.

[marijam]

How well Democrats wield power for global betterment is a part of the answer. Will absolute power again corrupt absolutely? Or will Democrats work to achieve that broadly defined liberal agenda embraced by the First Globals? Time will tell.
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Yes, time will tell but weren't the Democrats the majority in Congress for 40 years until the S & L debacle? That means there must be democrats still in Congress who remember how to properly govern.

[seeker1of2truth]

Democrats held the House of Representatives from around 1952 to 1994.
The Senate did change by majority party a couple of times. Unfortunately,
Democrats got too cocky, over-confident and somewhat corrupt.
By 1994, between the S&L, House Post Office scandals, etc. it was a
'throw the bums out' election.

Republicans didn't learn from the Democrats mistakes. Instead of holding
for 40 years, it only took them 12 years to screw up. Unfortunately, if
the Democrats don't bring honesty, integrity, transparency and common
sense back to Washington, they too could be out on their ear in 2010.

There are more independents and moderates who don't identify with
a specific party ideology and we're the ones who clinch the election
for one party or the other when all the votes are counted.

[NationalTreasure]

President-Elect Obama wll retain the support from the Globals and others if he does not decde to have an administration based upon political avarice as the Clintons ran with their "corporate / center right triangulation strategy" and instead offers up progressive and liberal change that greatly benefits the American public as a whole