The Democrats' Color Scheme

Be still my heart! Political reporters like me might actually get the story we've been dreaming of, complete with enough complexities to keep us in clover all year long.

As the Super Tuesday number crunching continues, we know this: the Democratic nomination will come down to demographics and superdelegates, the 796 elected officials and party elders who are free to vote for whomever they choose. With Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama so evenly matched in both, the stage is now set for a brokered convention. I'd put the odds at 75 percent that neither candidate arrives in Denver in late August with the 2,025 committed delegates needed to get nominated on the first ballot.

The order of battle across the country is now clear. It's Black and Green versus Brown and Gray. Obama has an overwhelming advantage among African-Americans and wealthier and better-educated voters who care about issues like the environment and political reform. Clinton is well ahead with Latinos and with Democrats over 60, many of whom are on fixed incomes and vote reliably. Gender is more evenly balanced, with Obama leading narrowly among men and Hillary narrowly among women.

Click here to continue reading.

Comments

[Spookcatcher]

The populus of citizens never have made the decisions who made it to the nominations. The democrats devised the superdelegates which comprises 20% of the total, did so, so that party bosses and manuevors/deals could be cut. the cocktail parties and backrooms and private country clubs always will decide what is best for America, how do you think these candidates got this far in politics to begin with? too bad Edwards sold out to them, but afterall, he is a "lawyer".

[WASanford]

Ok guys step off of the bandwagon long enough to hear me out. The last thing we should do is nominate Barack Obama as our presidential candidate. Barack is very highly intelligent, personable, relatively young, and a CONSTITUTIONAL SCHOLLAR! We can put him to better use.
Even if we win the presidency and have unstoppable majorities in both houses of congress, we will still have a problem with the four ideologues that have been placed on the Supreme Court by republican presidents. On top of that, the three moderates on the court are old and cannot serve much longer. As an associate judge, Barack would be an excellent foil to Chief Justice Roberts and he should be first in line for that position. With his youth there is even a chance of his becoming chief justice.

[alkamm]

Bandwagons are not always the wrong vehicles to be on. The problem with stopping bandwagons is that the late model Chevy you've bought may break down, or not make it to the finish line.
Hillary is roughly comparable to Hubert Horatio Humphrey. After Robert Kennedy was shot, the Democrats had the opportunity to put Eugene McCarthy in, but they let down the country by opting for "the Hump." A nice man, a dedicated soldier, but not one to energize enough new voters to counter the vast silent majority.
The false assumption that Hillary could win this battle over McCain makes this rosy scenario of Obama on the Supreme court laughable.
If you want new and improved leadership, listen to the youth of this country. As Oscar Wilde argued, the youth very often have more to teach the old than vice versa. Children, for instance, can tell when their parents are foolish.
First things first. Obama in the White House, a new set of intelligent, informed administrators in the Cabinet and Security Council. We need Obama to lead the country, not the legal opinions of the Supreme Court.

[sofia]

This is absolutely silly. I do not need to tell you how wrong exit polls and pundits have been. And if Hillary is getting the less educated Wal Mart crowd, how could she have won the liberal bastion and educated Mass. and NJ voters??? Obama gets the Starbucks crowd. Ha! I did not know they had so many Starbucks in Iowa, Georgia, and Idaho. This is all so silly and it is obvious that 24 hour news channels and pundits/journalists do not do investigative work anymore. It is cheaper and less time consuming to do BS!

[ProudLiberalDan]

Well, you do make a good point that most punditry is utter caca.

And the way they stereotype and simplify the campaigns in ridiculous.

Pundits across the spectrum do this.

This is because actual policy analysis and true political debate requires thought and an attention span.

Watch the BBC cover British politics sometime, or the ABC cover Australian politics. You'll weep the next time you watch CNN or Fox or MSNBC.

[unitron]

Anybody else getting spaces between paragraphs in "preview" that disappear when you actually post?

[WASanford]

Yes! Just add an extra space between paragrapbs.

[TN60]

Jonathan Alter is one of the best in journalism. I'm a fan and watch him on Keith Olberman and read him n Newsweek.

I would like to throw out this angle to the debate between my candidate,Obama and Mz. Hillary.

It may not be such a bad deal for Obama that Hillary is the favorite of the Latinos. There is a strong constituency of Independants and moderate Republicans out there who absolutely are against amnesty of illegal immigrants which is code for "Mexicans". While both candidates are for reasonable amnesty which is to their credit, the perception is still out there that the Latinos are Hillary's.

May I also say it is nice to see Michelle Obama wear a dress and not an abestos pants suit !!!!! And by the way, do we really want Hillary to manage our economy with her 5 million loan to herself boondogle. Guess she was paying Mark Penn's salary for one month to poll test her answers before every utterance from her devious mouth.

[olderdem]

Jonathon,

This is a little off topic, but regarding Hillary's $5 milllion loan to her campaign. Has anyone considered that Hillary raised $20 million towards her Presidential campaign last year, in addition to that raised for the Primaries? Remember, donors can give a maximum of $2300 for both campaigns or a total of $4600.

By “loaning” her campaign $5 million, she is really substituting funds raised for the general election for the primary. If she loses the nomination, that money raised for the general election is hers – it will be used to “pay back” that loan. If she wins the primary, she is calculating that plenty of more money will come in to fight the Republicans.

Are the Clintons exploiting a loophole in the campaign election laws?

[BitJam]

The full article said Obama raised $3 million on the Wednesday following Super Tuesday. He has actually raised over $5.4 million since the polls closed Tuesday night. You can track the exact amount on his web site.

They wanted to match the $5 million Hillary gave herself but they've already surpassed that goal.

[DoninJoisey]

Explain Minnesota - 90% white:
Obama 141,110 67%
Clinton 68,047 32%

Or Connecticut...

and screw Superdelegates!

Look at the total votes cast on Tuesday - essentially dead even.

The voter trend is clear from just several weeks ago.

[unitron]

"Explain Minnesota - 90% white:Obama 141,110 67% Clinton 68,047 32%"

A possibly explanation is that white men voted
for Obama because Hillary gets on their last nerve.

It's only a theory.

[alkamm]

The only person who called me a white male during my attempt to persuade her as an "undecided" was a dyed in the wool feminist. At our caucus in Nebraska, I asked her to take a look at the people on Obama's side. We were white, we were Native American, we were Black, we were women (not mice), and we were men, in numbers too loud to ignore.
Hillary doesn't just get on white men's nerves. She gets on the nerves of those men and women of all sorts who can spot her over-achieving lust for power for its own sake.
Trust the voters this year, and you can see that the worst fears of the Republicans is taking shape--being swept from power. The presidential defeat of McCain should be roughly as dramatic as Goldwater's, but only if Obama is given the nomination. With Hillary, it's a crap shoot, and too close for consensus. Obama will give this country a mandate for change rather than a slender reed.