Still not over it... Eddie Vedder wasn't even nominated for this.
Whenever I place my son down to sleep - beit at night or for a daytime nap - I gently rock the crib as a lullaby plays and he slowly falls into dreamland....emphasize the word "slowly." Eventually, he rolls over on his stomach, his eyes get heavy, and I tiptoe out of the room. If he's still awake as I leave, he'll let me know he needs more rocking by kicking his right leg up and down. The final rocks put him to sleep, and I'm a free man - at least for a little while. This plays out every day, and it gets me every time. As I've found out as a relatively new parent, you have to find joy in the predictable. I know, for the most part, a child's behavior is as predictable as a Homeland curveball. And, that brings us to this weekend's Oscars. Insert collective "huh?" here. I'll explain.
Unlike Academy Award telecasts over the past decade (where you could predict the winners from a mile away and the entertainment factor was uneven), this year's awards should provide enough surprises and sighs to more than make up for the ho-humness of yesteryear. Actually, I'm going to go out on a limb and say this year's show will be the most entertaining in the last 25 years. I expect edgy (and unlikely) host Seth MacFarlane to provide a boatload of laughs (apologies to Carnival Cruises for that analogy) and for the evening's winners to be the most shocking since Harrison Ford announced Shakespeare in Lovehad upset Saving Private Ryan. With that, here's my take on every single darn category, and my outlandish predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Awards. Namedrop your own predictions below! ...Now if you'll excuse me, I have a crib that needs rocking...
Will Win: The freight train called Argo will take home the gold, and it's worthy but I'd be pretty excited if Silver Linings Playbook shocks the world. But, expect now-historic snubster Ben Affleck to get that Oscar afterall.
Should Win: Video killed the radio star, and controversy killed Zero Dark Thirty.
Might Upset: The surprise hit Silver Linings may be Harvey Weinstein's latest Oscar get.
Will and Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Might Upset: If anyone can do it and send shock waves through the film world it's Oscar "hater" Joaquin Phoenix. But, don't bet a penny against Day-Lewis. (See what I did there?)
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amore
Should Win: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Might Upset: It wouldn't be an upset since she's the favorite, but Jennifer Lawrence can easily win here. I'm choosing Riva for the win because the Oscars like to make history (she'd be the oldest winner), and favorites Chastain and Lawrence may cross each other out. I'm happy if I'm wrong and J. La or J. Cha win.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: It'll be Oscar #2 for Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master.
Should Win: Oh boy does Christoph Waltz deserve it for Django Unchained.
Might Upset: I'm going with a dark horse to win this category even though my gut tells me Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) or more likely Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) could take it.
Best Supporting Actress
Will and Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Might Upset: I dreamed a dream that Sally Field slid in and won this but it was just a dream. Hathaway deserves it - hands down. No contest.
Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Should Win: Ben Affleck or Kathryn Bigelow but it'd have to be a write-in ballot. Fingers, toes, eyes crossed.
Might Upset: Michael Haneke or Ang Lee could surprise here, but I'm betting Spielberg gets his third directing statue.
Best Original ScreenplayThe controversy surrounding Zero Dark Thirty probably will cost Mark Boal a deserved Oscar so I'm going with Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained over Hanake for Amore. QT hasn't won since Pulp Fiction, and it's time.
Best Adapted Screenplay
A month ago, I would've said Tony Kushner had this in the bag for Lincoln. Now, my gut is telling me it's between Argo's Chris Terrio and Silver Linings' Russell. I'd bank on the former since Argo should be the night's top winner.
While I'd love to see Robert Richardson's work for Django win, look for Claudio Miranda to take home the Oscar for the breathtaking Life of Pi.
Bank on William Goldenberg's work for "Argo" to win here over his other nominated editing job (with Dylan Tichenor) for Zero Dark Thirty.
Best Costume Design
I'll give the edge to Paco Delgado for Les Misérables over Jacqueline Durran for Anna Karenina.
Best Production Design:
Again, I'm giving the slight edge to Les Miserables over Anna Karenina here.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Amour hands down - easiest category to call aside from Best Actor
Best Animated Feature:
Never count Pixar out so Brave probably will win, but Wreck-It-Ralph could upset here. Heck forget them both, I'm going to say Tim Burton finally gets some love and takes it home for Frankenweenie. Call me crazy.
Short Film (Animated)
Sorry Homer and Marge, but don't look for Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare to win here. I'd say Paperman is taking this home.
Best Visual Effects:
Life of Pi over The Avengers. Substance over style.
I'll give Les Mis the slight edge over Argo.
So it doesn't go home empty handed, I'll go with Zero Dark Thirty just over Life of Pi.
Life of Pi takes this one as well. Again, all these tech wins make me wonder if Ang Lee could surprise.
Adele will win for Skyfall, and she deserves it. She's talented, smart, funny, and has the best chance at an EGOT.
"How to Survive a Plague" over Searching for Sugar Man.
Documentary Short Subject:
Open Heart just because.
Live Action Short:
I'll say Curfew because having a child now makes me have one.
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