A Grand Bargain for Kosovo - and Europe

A new round of talks aimed at getting Serbia and the Kosovar Albanian government to agree on the status of Kosovo began on September 18. The U.S. and western European nations are determined to see Kosovo become independent. However, Serbia is not prepared to agree, effectively dooming the talks. Russian opposition has, for the moment at least, cut off one option for getting around Belgrade -- using a UN Security Council resolution to make Kosovo independent. Another option recently floated -- of Kosovo simply declaring itself independent and the U.S. and European countries then recognizing it -- carries risks Kosovo can ill-afford, and would contravene a European desire to see the status issue settled through a negotiated process.

A grand bargain -- a tool of statecraft whereby several issues are settled at once, often because a particular issue cannot be settled alone -- may be the best way forward. A key piece of the deal is creating incentives for Serbia. In exchange for agreeing to, or at least recognizing, Kosovar independence, Serbia would be able to join the EU on the same day as Croatia -- and the date would be as soon as possible. Being coupled with Serbia would not be well regarded by Croatia, which has already done far more preparatory work. To make this palatable, the EU should grant Croatia special dispensation allowing it to put off finishing the politically distasteful economic reforms that are making the 2009 target its politicians have been trumpeting unreachable. Inevitably, the rushed accession process will lead to shortcomings in reform. But the process is no stranger to the expedient of broader politics, and this would be an acceptable cost.

To make the incentive credible, the EU would have to lift the condition requiring Ratko Mladic's appearance at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) before Serbia's EU negotiations can proceed. Here the U.S. could play a role; by agreeing to extend in some form the mandate of the ICTY, the U.S. can assure that Mladic, whenever he is caught, is tried at the Hague -- not in a Serbian courtroom, where there is a risk of a compromised process. That the trial is fair is the core ethical objective with regard to war crimes. Together with the possibility of agreement on Kosovo, this step would compensate for any potential loss of leverage regarding Mladic. The EU would also retain the right to reapply the war crimes condition if Serbian compliance efforts show signs of backsliding.

Even with Serbian and Kosovar agreement, a UN Security Council resolution is still important. This means a deal with Russia, which currently sees no incentive to striking one. Russia does not share the U.S. and European view of the probity of independence for Kosovo; it has suggested both concern and opportunity in any potential precedent that might be set for state secession; and, it has a list of grievances at U.S. policy in Europe -- abrogation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the U.S. decision to install missile defense stations in Poland and the Czech Republic are high on the list.

This type of missile defense, a relic of the Bush 2000 campaign -- and of 30 years of anti-détente thinking advanced by some of the same strategists who pushed for invading Iraq -- may not survive the Bush administration. Now is an opportune moment for beleaguered administration realists to send a private signal to Russia that the missile defense scheme will die. Missile defense is a desirable candidate for linkage because it has specific European security dimensions; shifting on this position would not require or insinuate any shift in U.S. policy on extra-European issues. The Kosovo resolution itself could clearly deal with the prospective precedent issue.

This grand bargain would not only allow the U.S. and the EU to achieve their objectives for Kosovo, but would also seize an opportunity to speed up the delivery of the benefits of EU membership to Serbia, while retaining the tools to properly try Ratko Mladic. It would also send a broader signal to all of Europe that the U.S. is ready to return to its traditional strategic commitment to arms control. This could also serve as a building block for the U.S. and Russia to accelerate and improve nuclear threat reduction efforts -- a crucial anti-terrorism objective. For the EU, it would be generous compensation for any corners it is forced to cut in speedily bringing Serbia and Croatia -- which fought a brutal war with each other in the 1990s -- into a union founded in large part on the idea of preventing Europe's neighbors from ever again going to war with each other. Kosovo, of course, would gain its long-sought independence -- and in a way that puts it on a clear course toward its own EU membership.

Comments

[plutorage]

Why is the UNITED STATES promoting disnitegration of peoples around the world when it should be promoting world stability by encouraging people to live peacefully with each other??

The answer, I am afraid, lies in the corrupt nature of politicians like the Clintons.

Kosovo is not really a self sufficient entity. Kosovo will be part of Albania and the movement towards independence is a convenient fig leaf for the real intention of the United States: To steal land from one country and give to another.

If Kosovo is separated from Serbia (when was Kosovo NOT part of Serbia is the question), there are other areas in the world (Central Asia) where minorities will want to break away to join Russia and we will have ratified such changes by upsetting the apple cart in Kosovo.

[TorpedoTommy]

Well first of all it's funny that serbia has to prove, that kosovo is a part of it's territory, it is also a ridiculous argument because since the borders of nationstates are artificially constructed everywhere, how do you prove such a thing sufficiently? And you wouldn't bomb spain because they don't let go of the basque country, but respect their sovereignty. Also about your 'state terror and ethnic cleansing' I think that that is a bad argument to make when on the side of the kosovarians you have the ethno-fascist UCK (KLF) who killed serbian policeofficers to force the central government to react and thus the NATO to intervene. The UCK was supported by the CIA and the german MAD (military secret service), had money to arm themselves mostly out of drugtrade and prostitution and afterwards ethnically cleansed the parts of the Kosovo the Nato-troops were not able or willing to protect. Also they didn't represent the will of the people because Ibrahim Rugova was the then elected President of the region and a moderate. The UCK on the other hand forced men to fight for them. And as a last point the 'ethnical cleansing' of the Kosovo didn't take place until the Nato-bombing started and from what the sources say I conclude that there even was none, but people fleeing from the bombs.

[ulpiana]

After realizing that the "Historical Heartland of Serbia" argument is no longer working, Russia and Serbia shifted to the "precedent" argument, by threatening that Russia will throw gasoline in the fires of the frozen conflicts in the Caucasus if Kosovo becomes independent.

They may not be realizing that if somehow miraculously Kosovo is kept within Serbia, they will set another precedent: the one of legitimizing state terror and ethnic cleansing and actually not being punished for it.

Perhaps, that is Russia’s ultimate goal? Or perhaps they have already set the precedent with their actions in Chechnya?

[Limited]

This could not work and should not even be considered as a solution for many reasons:

1. It clearly disregards the problem of respecting State sovereignty. NATO attacked, occupied, and now desires to sever Serbia on the premise of lies and, it seems, for the ultimate goal of a U.S. Airbase. Hitler (not known as a humanitarian) went into Czechoslovakia to save the Sudetenland Germans. This type of aggression is the type of turd-policy we threw into the trash heap after the Second World War. When a turd is pulled from a trash heap it is still a turd. Independent countries can't be based on turds.

2. Kosovo still has yet to fulfill the most important requirements of UN Resolution 1244. Some 300,000 minorities (200,000 Serbs, 100,000 Gypsies and others) are still displaced, ethnically cleansed by the Albanians. These people have to be returned, feel safe, be allowed to vote, and be able to make a living before status is even remotely considered.

3. Serbia has to want to be a part of the EU. It seems that they don't care to be a partner with a group of other partners that don't even appear to respect the very basic principals of partnership - respect for territorial integrity. I don't blame them. This Kosovo issue is a huge natural resource grab. Nobody join a club that requires submission all belongings for evaluation and confiscation at will.

4. Kosovo in not viable as a country. It needs another State to be viable for economic purposes. The government is immature and largely based from corrupt criminal enterprise. In every respect, it is worse than East Timor. How's that experiment doing? Last time I looked, Australia was throwing hundreds of millions of dollars into the black hole named East Timor. Kosovo will be no better, probably worse.

5. An independent Kosovo will lead to more Albanian expansionism in Macedonia, Serbia (again), Montenegro, and Greece. It will also support other self determination efforts abroad.

It won't work and is bad for many reasons. This article is way far away from reality.

[ulpiana]

1. NATO’s presence in Kosovo has been authorized by UN resolution 1244 that followed the NATO bombing (that was a response to the brutal campaign of terror of the Serb state apparatus). One may argue that Serbia was trying to prevent first Slovenia then Croatia, then Bosnia then Macedonia and now Kosovo from disintegrating Yugoslavia.

Well, Serbia was the one that initiated this disintegration when in March 1989 it illegally adopted amendments to the Serbian constitution. These amendments suspended the autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina. This gave Serbia voting control over three Yugoslav Federal Units (Serbia, Kosovo, Vojvodina) out of eight voting members. With Montenegro and Macedonia voting along Serbia's lines, this was unacceptable to Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia. Slovenia and Croatia shortly after began the process towards independence.

Hadn’t this occurred, there would be no wars in former Yugoslavia and it would probably already be a member of the EU.

[Limited]

1. Correct. NATO entered Kosovo like a true aggressive alliance, after lies, bombing of civilian targets, and other acts of an aggressive war - forcing entry. Brutal campaign? I think that describes the KLA. Besides killing minorities, they killed moderate Albanians. Documentation exists that one Sector in the KLA alone displaced more than 200,000 people to create a humanitarian crisis.

If you read history, you would find that Serbia's constitution was legal and that Slovenia and Croatia ceded first and they ceded as soon as they could after the death of Tito. They prepared society by fostering hate in literature, the arts, and in their political parties. Once that cycle began, all the Yugoslav states did it. Slovenia and Croatia always hated funding under performing State and Provinces, especially Kosovo. They were zero return investments to them.

EU countries, especially Germany, assisted in the breakup of Yugoslavia. Apparently, they had no desire for a strong Balkan State with strong economic protectionism. It could have been changed, but they chose to foster economic depression and wars of secession. Your EU membership comment is really far away from reality.

[ulpiana]

2. UN mission in Kosovo until recently was the dictator with limitless internal power in Kosovo. Local institutions had no say and no means to implement anything. Although millions of dollars have been poured into the province, most of them went into fat salaries of the international staff. Of course, this supported the local small businesses, but that’s about it. No major investments were made in the local infrastructure.

Would you want to live in a country where there are frequent power and water outages, where the paved roads have holes that your whole vehicle can fit in?
Let’s say New York City loses power every few hours… wouldn’t you be afraid of being mugged if you were in a dark area?
(Personally, I would rather be in Pristina than in New York if the power goes off.)

As far as the 300,000 displaced…
According to Yugoslav statistics, there were less than 200,000 Serbs in Kosovo in 1999. In 1981, the population of Serbs in Kosovo was 209,498. In 1991, it was 194,190. If you follow the trend, in 1999, there would have been around 178,882 Serbs.

According to the Pristina Demographic Department unofficial census, there were only 140,000 Serbs in Kosovo in 1995.

The other minorities are as follows:
- Muslims: 40,000
- Roma: 40,000
- Turks: 8,000
- Montenegrins: 7,000
- Others: around 5,000
Total: 100,000

Muslims are still there, Roma are partially there, Turks are still there, Montenegrins are partially there, others are still there.

So, it looks like there are about 40 thousand displaced individuals at most.

Deducting the policemen and their families and the army troops that were stationed in Kosovo, this brings the number down to about 20,000.

So, this is following a trend that always had continued in Kosovo – and this was departure for economical reasons. They could sell their homes in Kosovo and for that sum of money, buy 3 houses in Serbia or elsewhere.

[Limited]

Hey, its OK. It is well understood that those that advocate an independent Kosovo don't count minorities as people. My numbers, kept to one significant figure, are based from actual UNHCR counts and estimates from those that know better, since not all refugees register with the UNHCR. Note that Germany has 45,000 Roma Refugees from Kosovo, alone. Here are some links:

http://www.unhcr.org/publ/PUBL/433bdf1f2.pdf
http://www.refugeesinternational.org/content/mission/detail/5986/
http://romnews.com/community/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1843

I think it is the pure disregard and callous attitude that the Pro-Independence Albanian extremist exhibit towards minority refugees that truly shows what an independent Kosovo will look like: mono-ethnic. Thanks for proving my point. They are nowhere near adhering to UN Resolution 1244.

As far as the general condition of the province, it is just like the Kosovo Albanians to blame the those that are currently feeding them. Without the UN dollars and Serbia, Kosovo will be left to poverty and the Wahabi Missionaries.

[ulpiana]

3. Perhaps they should have thought of this when they were killing innocent civilians in the 90’s?

Remember, Serbia does not own Kosovo. There was a time when countries owned countries, but the owned countries were called colonies and the residents were called slaves.

4. Your claims on number 4 are baseless claims. The government with no powers cannot be effective. UN is the czar in Kosovo.

If it is so ineffective on its own, what makes you feel that Serbia would be able to handle it? Why does Serbia want it so much for itself if it is such a “black hole”?

5. An independent Kosovo will conclude the disintegration of Yugoslavia. Partition of Kosovo is what would initiate self-determination movements in Macedonia, Montenegro, Presevo Valley (Serbia) and of course, Chameria (Greece).


Independent Kosovo will work. It will pull out not only Kosovo, but even Serbia from the black hole that they are in by giving its residents a little hope and prosperity.

I would much rather have 2 million Kosovars living free in their homeland than having 2 millions prisoners in Serbia.

[Limited]

3. Perhaps the EU should have realized that they needed Serbia before they attacked them. A Balkan EU without Serbia is disfunctional at best. It seems that the philosophy of economic corridors in Southern Europe will be nonexistent without participation of the central-most corridor. Kosovo isn't even a player in that corridor. Agronomy and natural resources and their related products have to move to be useful.

4. Sorry you've not looked at the economics of Kosovo. Prewar, during the war, after the war, it just doesn't matter. It's been an economic black hole for decades. As a part of Serbia, it would do well. As a part of Albania, it won't do as well. Alone, it doesn't stand a chance.

5. Albanian expansionism won't end with Kosovo. You can say that as much as you want. That is the less likely situation. Funny you should mention Chechnya. Chechnya had freedom after the first war of independence. It then went on to destabilize Daghastan, only to end up where it is today. I think Kosovo, if independent will follow the same model. Albanian secessionists in Serbia and Macedonia have already raised secession into Kosovo as their future.

The Kosovo Albanians can live free in their homeland. They were born in Serbia. Love it or leave it (go to Germany).

[Plowboy]

Serbia's claim seems to be based on a battle fought on Kosovo Polye -- the Field of Blackbirds on June 28,1389 -- which the Serbs lost.
If one wishes for something that makes sense, perhaps this is the wrong place.

[cognate]

It's doubtful that the Serb president or prime minister who consents to Kosovo's independence will survive too long.

The right to assassinate errant leaders is a cherished and deeply nurtured Serb myth, starting with the murder of the Turkish sultan at the battle of Kosovo in 1389, and including the assassination of Austrian archduke Ferdinand in 1914, and the killings of two Serb kings and one prince over the last century and a half.

The previous Serb prime minister, Zoran Djindjic, who held pro-Western views and sought an accommodation over Kosovo, including its independence, was gunned down in 2003.

[Henry]

What is the historic claim that Serbia places on Kosovo? What is the historic claim that Eurpoean Jews place on the land of Israel?

Will Mexico take California back? Who is the rightful owner of the land of California?