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White Voters and Obama
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Why didn't Obama end up farther ahead in the polling? The objective factors that favor the Democrats this year are overwhelming: the worst economy since the Great Depression, the most unpopular incumbent president in the history of polling, and a money advantage in the campaign that is unprecedented for a Democrat. The polls all show that Obama will win -- but the authoritative polling statistics website, FiveThirtyEight.com, predicts that Obama will end up with 52 per cent of the vote.
If Obama does get 52 per cent of the white vote today, that will be more than any Democrat in the last 40 years -- more than Bill Clinton, who got 49.2 per cent in 1996 (when Ross Perot got 8.4 per cent) and more than Jimmy Carter, who got 50.1 per cent in 1976. But it's nowhere near LBJ's 60.1 per cent in 1964, or Ronald Reagan's 58.8 percent in 1984.
One reason why Obama isn't farther ahead may be race. The evidence here is of course problematic. When the New York Times-CBS poll in August asked white people whether they would vote for a black presidential candidate, only five per cent said "no"--impressive evidence that America has at last overcome its racist past.
But the pollsters asked a number of other questions to uncover racist attitudes: do you think an Obama administration would favor blacks over whites? 16 per cent of whites said "yes." Do you think America is ready for a black president? 24 per cent of whites said "no." And the question pollsters consider the most significant: do you agree or disagree with the statement, "Most of the people I know would not vote for a black presidential candidate"? 19 per cent of whites agreed.
All this suggests the number of white likely voters who will vote against Obama today because he is black is somewhere between 16 per cent and 24 per cent. That's something like 25-30 million racist white votes against Obama -- more than the total number of black voters.
On the other hand: Obama has more support from white voters than any Democratic candidate in the last 30 years. According to another New York Times-CBS poll, 44 per cent of whites support Obama. If he ends up tonight with that 44 per cent, that will be more than supported Kerry, who got 41 per cent; more than Gore, who got 43 per cent; and more than Clinton in 1996, who also got 43 percent. Only Jimmy Carter got more: 47 per cent, and of course he was a southern white man.
The reason why more whites support Obama than any Democrat in the last 30 years is not hard to find: "it's the economy, stupid" -- that, and Obama's steady and calm focus on economic issues.
But if it were up to whites, McCain would almost certainly be our next president. Obama can win only with the vote of nonwhites -- a fact well known to Republicans, who have spent years working to reduce the number of black voters through new voter ID laws, purges of the voter rolls, felon disfranchisement, insufficient voting equipment in black precincts, and other well-known factors. The Obama campaign surely knows all about this, and is prepared to fight fiercely to protect the vote.
One other crucial factor: America is significantly less white today than it was a decade or two ago. As John Harwood of the New York Times pointed out on Monday, when Reagan won reelection in 1984, the electorate was 86 per cent white; by 2004, the white percentage had dropped to 77. That's one reason why an interracial coalition is likely to elect America's first black president today.
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WOW! Many people voted the party they voted in past elections. As the campaign wore on and I mean, WORE on.. more information actually became more distorted information. Income tax cuts and who benefits, health care insurance; how much will it cost, There was a plethora of dubious and unsubstantiated numbers that many voters stopped listening and went back to the party they previously voted.
Like many voters, I blotted out the nuthead remarks and focused simply on the LAST 8 YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!! and voted against more of the same.. and..... I am a unapologetic democrat.
lihartke, why is Obama a fraud? Why is it okay for our government to subsidize business industries and not the American people? It's our money. I've have found during this election, most Americans don't know the American people are the government. We as taxpayers must convey to our elected representatives how we want our money spent. If we want to spend it on jobs, infrastructure, healthcare or education, it is our choice.
Please take a civic lesson to learn how our government should run. It is not the way the republicans would have you believe. It's the low information voters that are confused. Are you a low information voter?
All of you people are white(Goy) to me.
To me, Barack Obama is the very best man for the job, period! Call me colorblind, but this was not a factor in my vote what so ever. That said, I am a white woman and I could not be more proud of the fact that finally an african american was elected POTUS. It was my honor and priviledge to vote for such a wonderful candiate. I truly believe that Obama will be one of the best presidents of all time.
He is a man of pragmatism, but one of vision also. He is also one of intellect and honor, for all of those I have a tremendous respect for him. He inspires all of us to be the best we can be, and that is needed in a big way right now. I am so looking forward to our future and filled with hope.
"All this suggests the number of white likely voters who will vote against Obama today because he is black is somewhere between 16 per cent and 24 per cent."
No... It suggests that 16-24% won't vote for Obama for reasons that INCLUDE his race. Perhaps 70% or likely more of this group ALSO won't vote for Obama because they haven't voted for a Democrat in their lives and fall on the Republican side of the god-gays-guns spectrum.
If you strip out the voters who would never vote for a culturally liberal Democrat regardless of race (or gender), the true lost vote opportunity is probably only 3-6%.
You are paranoid......It's NOT whites who are looking at color.
You haven't talked to many of the folks I that I have. Quite a number are. But for some it's a negative and for some it's a positive.
The presumption that the election of an African-American candidate for President is a victory in and of itself presumes that the politics of ethnic identity politcs represents a political agenda for the future. It becomes very easy to attribute racism to "whites" as the reason for not voting for Obama.
Mr. Weiner chooses the low percentages polled regarding "white" negative attitudes and from there says the demographic changes in America's population and the economic crisis have coincidently converged to enable an Obama victory. The fact is that voting ALWAYS occurs in the context of alignments of voter blocs and current events.
Jon Weiner unequivocally declares: "if it were up to whites, McCain would almost certainly be our next president". It is simply not the case that "whites" vote as a bloc based only on racism. It is a good thing to have moved beyond Jim Crow and it is always important to recognize the impact of segregation on American political culture. It is another thing not to recognize the impact of the changes that have occurred since the 50s and 60s and simply scapegoat "white" people for thirty years of Republican domination.
"Whites" and African-Americans are opposed to the war in Iraq. "Whites" and African-Americans are opposed to the policies of the Bush administration. "Whites" and African-Americans remain concerned about the nation's future. In Unity there is Strength. United We Stand, Divided We Fall.
"All this suggests the number of white likely voters who will vote against Obama today because he is black is somewhere between 16 per cent and 24 per cent."
You several unsubstantiated assumptions here. You assume that those who may (the poll does not conclusively tell us yes or no) have latent racist tendencies will have their vote ultimately determined by them, as if it is the only factor in determining a person's vote. Also, I can clearly say that many whites I know would not vote for an African American, but that is because of the area I was born and raised in. That doesn't mean that I share those views.
The majority of racist people I have met in my life have been nonwhite people. I know many people who have been insulted and harrassed by black people whom they did not even know who targeted them because they are white. I have had black people I never met before slow down as driving by to yell cracker at me and flip me off for no reason. If anything Obama is benefiting from racism. While the majority of black people would support him anyway, nowhere near 90% would if he were white. Furthermore, many white people will vote for him to prove that they are enlightened. Obama benefited from racism when he used race baiting tactics in his campaign such as when supporters claimed that the Clintons were somehow racists and when he ran spanish language ads implying that McCain was a racist.
you're saying that you know less white people who are racist? Or is it that you focus more of the racist attitude of non-white people because you are white?
racism is universal, there is no question, but your implication is that if white people like the Clintons use race tinge tactics and Obama's supporters call themn out on it, that is using race baiting tactics, but it's okay for the Clintons to do so? Come on And of course McCain used racist tactics. That is why so many people turned against them.
There is an old saying that there are 3 types of lies.......
1. Lies
2. Damn lies
3. Statistics
What is trhe signifigance that Obama will carry 90% of the african american vote??? Is that racism???
How many african americans will go to the polls today to vote for a guy just because he's black??? Are they familiar with his quaifications and positions???? There is a you tube posting of a woman who says that with Obama as President she won't have to worry about paying for gas or her mortgage...(I think I know what she meant.... it just doesn't sound very good).
What have african american voters continued to re-elect corrupt mayors in cities when a qualified white candidate was available??? (John Street in Phila.).
Unfortuantely human nature being what it is, racist views are held by some people of all races. It will be a happy day when we no longer need statistics of this sort.
Why have white voters contined to re-elect corrup polititians in cities and towns when a qualified non-white candidate is available?
Stupidity has no color, my friend!
Blacks vote White all the time! Look at the race in Memphis when Blacks disregarded the Black Lawyer and voted instead for her White counterpart.
Please! 90% of AA are voting for Obama for the same reason that his White supporters are because he gives HOPE and a future that is different than our past 8 years!
I only posted this way since it is whites who are being questioned as to their racist attitudes.....
I am glad that you gave the Memphis election as an example... I was unaware of it.
I know why African Americans are voting for Obama..... that's why I opened with the 3 types of lies........stats can always be misconstrued to prove a point.
I agree with you that stupidy has no color.
I hope you agree with me that it will be a happy day when we don't need statistics like this.
84% of blacks vote Democratic for Clintin in 96 = okay
90% of blacks vote Democratic for Gore in 00 = okay
88% of blacks vote Democratic Kerry in 04 = okay
96% of blacks vote Democratic for Obama in 08 (the first African-American president in our history, something many blacks never thought they'd get the opportunity to see let alone take part in after voting monolithically in droves for white candidates for DECADES) = XXOMGRXXRACISMXX!!!!
Some of you need to get a clue.
If this were true, sir, explain Iowa. I live in small town Iowa, the state that gave Obama an overwhelming lead in the primaries and has been supporting Obama for the last year. Iowa is 95% white. Iowans want Obama because he is indeed the best person for the job, with the economy, the wars, diplomacy over another cold war, Iowa shows the intelligence of the voters in this country. I am so proud of my state!
Iowa Stats: white people 94.6%, black people 2.5% and Iowa delivered to OBama by a 54-45 or by 9 percentage points. I am 50 year white woman who voted for Obama and never even considered the color of his skin as factor, I chose him because I found him inspiring. Just my side of family there were 38 eligible voters and everyone of them voted. Only 4 of those votes went to McCain.
Wow....
I never thought skin pigment had a vote.
Could have SWORN it was all about "may the best person win".
Can't choose your parents.......
Guess some just can't let that go....they just don't 'get it'.
Awfully "white" of them, eh?"
Wow.
~A red- headed, freckled, white viet era woman vet
The Truth Hurts don't it, Mr. Weiner?
Just because I'm white and from the South, dosen't mean I'm stupid!
I voted Obama and even campaigned for him!
i'M WHITE AND 85 PERCENT OF THE WHITES I SPOKE WITH SUPPORT OBAMA. THERE IS STILL RACISM IN AMERICA BUT I THINK CERTAIN REGIONS (SOUTH) ARE MORE AFFECTED THAN OTHER REGIONS (NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WHEN WILL WE FINALLY REALIZE THERE IS ONLY ONE RACE - THE HUMAN RACE?
If It were up to this white, McCain wouldn't even be in the running!
85% of the people you spoke with are "out of their minds". This guy is a FRAUD and America will find that out but, it's going to be at the expense of our children and the people who are retiring now or are about to be retired.
We are all frauds in the sense that we all create our selves and people take us at our own words until we prove to be otherwise. The issue thus, is not whether Obama has crafted a great image, but whether he lives up to it, as he has so far. Remember that Obama has not pretended to be Bambi. McCain too has crafted an image, but most people dont take his hero/maverick act seriously, which is why he is losing the election. To progress, we must learn from our errors, lihartke.
No, the ones that voted McBush in for 8 years had too be out of their minds to elect this man to 8 years in the White House. Look at the mess we're in now. You must be out of your mind.
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