Yesterday, I wrote about the disastrous state of labor in the wake of the elections. Suffering from either a lack of sleep or simple brain lock, I neglected to include one of the most dangerous coming debacles: we have lost much of the ground built opposing so-called "free trade" agreements, which have played a central role in undermining jobs and wages here--and have caused the decline in wages across the planet. And it is now about to get worse, thanks to "bi-partisanship".
I can almost guarantee--if I was a pollster, I'd use a fancy chart and put the certainty of this happening at 99 percent--that, in searching for areas of "bi-partisanship", to show the voters and the country that the two parties have "heard" the message of the election, that so-called "free trade" will be one of the first things on the cooperation agenda. I would not be surprised to hear that declared within the next few weeks.
Here is my long-held view: our so-called "free trade" agreements are directly connected to the decline in wages--both because they encourage the movement of high-wage jobs to lower-wage countries (though, let's be clear that such movement can happen without these trade deals--the deals just make it easier) AND because so-called "free trade" is based on the fundamental principle of the race to the bottom on wages.
The world of trade today is not based on the best product. It is based on wage and regulation arbitrage. That is, worldwide corporations are simply looking for the places to do business where they can get the cheapest wages and the lowest level of regulation possible (as in lax environmental standards, no labor standards and no protection for anything--except for capital and corporate intellectual property right). And they are clear: they do not care about creating jobs here.
And, simply on the question of do they work, Public Citizen destroyed the idea that so-called "free trade" agreements live up to their claims of increasing trade.
To outline what we face legislatively: First, the Nancy Pelosi-led House (and I invoke her name positively because she deserves credit for this) was the finger in the dike preventing the passage of the so-called "free trade" agreements with South Korean and Colombia (and Pelosi did that even when there were senior Democrats like Charles Rangel who were trying to do the bidding of corporate lobbyists). You can bet your life that the John Boehner-led Lobbyist Convention (what we once used to call the "House of Representatives") will now press for the passage of those deals. While a smattering of Republicans in the past did oppose so-called "free trade", their numbers have never been consequential. These deals will now pass the House. Absolutely guaranteed.
Take no comfort about the Senate. On trade, the Senate Democratic caucus has been, as a whole, much more inclined to support so-called "free trade". I am not even sure whether Sherrod Brown--the main Senate sponsor of the TRADE Act, which would try to usher in a new sane era on trade--could muster enough votes to filibuster a so-called "free trade" deal. The House has been the bulwark. With the House gone, it's over in the Senate. There will be no reason for the Senate leadership to hold these deals back.
And the president has not been an ally in this area. He has consistently, going back to the 2008 presidential primaries, referred to himself as a "free trader". In his last State of the Union address, he said:
And that's why we'll continue to shape a Doha trade agreement that opens global markets, and why we will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea and Panama and Colombia.
As important, this is also terrible politics. I think it is understandable why people are angry. The truth is the people have been robbed by the entirely bankrupt system of the "free market"--and so-called "free trade" has been an important oil in that robbery. Rather than focus on the phony deficit "crisis", the president and the Democrats should be talking about how to stop the robbery--and approving more so-called "free trade" agreements is, to put it mildly, off message.
If we want to "hear the message", it is that everyone is sick and tired of being screwed by the big corporations and the top one percent of the wealthy in this country who care only about draining more of our national wealth into their own pockets.
Stan Greenburg and James Carville demonstrated, in an otherwise useless memo, that opposition to so-called "free trade" was an electoral winner:
There is a second message that centers on made in America, creating American jobs and opposing the Republicans who supports trade agreements and tax breaks for companies that ex-port American jobs. The message is strongest with older women and seniors and with inde-pendents. These can be used in a targeted way, while working in our next poll and focus groups to bring these two messages together.
My passion is "made in America," working to support small businesses, American companies and new American industries. (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDI-DATE) has pledged to support the free trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea and protect the loophole for companies outsourcing American jobs. I have a different approach to give tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers and give tax subsidies for companies that create jobs right here in America.
This message framework for the election is helped by an attack on the Republican candidate for supporting trade agreements and tax breaks that lead to lost American jobs. Those at-tacks are very strong with white older women and seniors.
I am not for a message that opposes trade by targeting workers abroad i.e., "[Fill in the blank] is taking our jobs and we have to build everything here because we're better" or words to that effect. In my humble opinion, that leads us down the same track that fosters anti-immigrant feelings and a moral superiority that does not do our country well.
I am for--and I believe many Americans will respond to--a message that says, "No more greed in American--whether it's on Wall Street or in corporate trade. Vote against any candidate who will vote to let corporations attack our wages and pensions and the American Dream by forcing workers everywhere to work for slave wages."
Over the past few election cycles, opposition to so-called "free trade" was an electoral winner. Public Citizen showed how in 2006 and 2008 Democratic gains came partly because of a rejection of the so-called "free trade" model.
In a new analysis by Public Citizen released today, the organization says:
House Democrats that ran on fair trade platforms in competitive and open-seat races were three times as likely to survive the GOP tidal wave than Democrats who ran against fair trade, according to a comprehensive 182-race, 70-page report released today by Public Citizen. The GOP tsunami obliterated many candidate-specific features of the midterm contests, but trade, job offshoring and/or government purchases of foreign-made goods were a stunningly persistent national focus of midterm election campaigns, with 205 candidates campaigning on these issues. A record number of 75 Republicans adopted some fair trade messaging as well, 43 of whom won their races. More than sixty races became "fair trade offs," where both the Democrat and Republican ran on fair trade themes. Only 37 candidates campaigned in favor of more North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)-style trade agreements - about half of these candidates lost.
I have no reason to doubt the analysis--Public Citizen is quite on top of the issue and has done incredible work. BUT--
I think we are whistling in the dark here. We should be afraid--very afraid: The votes are not there to stop these deals from going through.
We can make the real argument that the American Dream--and a decent livelihood for workers all across the planet is at stake. And that unless the Democratic Party understands this, it will not win elections in the future--and will not deserve to.