Puerto Rico's beaches are as warm as its people, and the island's food is as delectable as its rum. But these are not the reasons why President Obama will be visiting the Island of Enchantment this week. The President is fulfilling a promise he made back in 2008 to the people of Puerto Rico to return to the island if he was elected president. His trip, however, is as much about the 2012 presidential race and making further inroads into the Latino community as it is about keeping his promise.
With the U.S. presidential election less than 17 months away, President Obama knows that his road to re-election will run through the Latino community, and his campaign is hoping that images of his trip to Puerto Rico will remind Latinos back in the U.S. of how he has feverishly courted the community since 2008 -- particularly, Latinos in Florida and out West.
In 2008, Latinos were not decisive in Barack Obama's victory over John McCain -- but they helped the President achieve a decisive victory. President Obama beat John McCain by more than 9.5 million votes. Latinos accounted for roughly 36.7% of the winning margin, padding Obama's victory with approximately 3.5 million votes.
In the battleground states, Latinos proved decisive in the state of New Mexico where they accounted for 106% of the President's winning margin. In Florida, Latinos accounted for 69% of Obama's winning plurality. In Nevada, they comprised 62% of the President's winning margin, while they constituted a more modest 35% of his margin of victory in Colorado. Given that the 2012 election will likely be more competitive than it was in 2008, Latinos will be critical to the President's re-election prospects. The Obama campaign will undoubtedly capitalize on the recent U.S. Census Bureau report indicating that 1 out of every 6 Americans is Latino. Assuming the campaign can close the voter registration gap between Latinos and their white and African-American counterparts, the President should be able to repeat his victories in these states, and strongly compete in Virginia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
So how could his trip to San Juan help him get re-elected? For starters, images of the President in a white guayabera shirt embracing the island's residents will appear faster on Telemundo and Univision television stations than you can say "ay Dios mio." Despite the President's 48% approval rating in the U.S., his approval rating among Latino voters stands at a striking 70%. A high visibility trip to San Juan will go a long way to remind Latinos why they like this President so much; particularly, when he mentions that he has appointed more Latinos to his presidential cabinet than any other president in American history. And yes, he will drop the "S-Bomb" and remind his audience that he elevated Sonia Sotomayor to become the first Hispanic woman to the nation's Supreme Court.
Who does the Obama campaign hope will take note of his trip to San Juan? Guess no further than Latino voters residing in Orlando, Tampa, Denver, Pueblo, Las Vegas, and Albuquerque. The President's re-election will inevitably turn on one of two winning strategies: win Florida, or the western triumvirate of New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Latinos will be pivotal in executing either strategy. The President's trip to Puerto Rico will be heavily reported in the I-4 corridor in Florida than runs between Tampa and Orlando, which is home to the bulk of the approximately 850,000 Puerto Ricans that live in the Sunshine State. Heavily Democratic, these voters will be critical in helping the President mitigate his losses among more conservative Cuban-American voters in southern Florida. If the President wins Florida, he will likely be assured a second term, as the challenge for the G.O.P. candidate to amass 270 electoral votes will become herculean. Without Florida, the G.O.P. would have to win a number of additional states including Ohio and Pennsylvania, which will not be an easy task given that no Republican presidential candidate has won Pennsylvania since 1988. Assuming the President loses both Florida and Ohio, in addition to North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia, and all else remains equal from the 2008 race, he would still win 273 electoral votes.
Of course, the qualifier is that all else would have to remain equal. A lot can happen to alter the electoral landscape dramatically in 17 months. If the Republican candidate manages to win all five of these states and picks up New Hampshire, there would be a 269-269 split, and the election would be tossed into the House of Representatives, effectively leading to a Republican victory.
If the Florida strategy fails, and the President only loses several of the states where he may be vulnerable, he can still win assuming he holds on to the Midwest, and repeats his 2008 sweep of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. The burgeoning Latino population out West served as a massive seawall that stopped the Republican tidal wave that swept across the country during last year's midterm election dead in its tracks. Remember all those polls showing Harry Reid was headed towards an early retirement of slots and shrimp cocktail in Vegas? They were all wrong, and Latinos, not Lady Luck, saved Harry Reid. According to Latino Decisions, a polling firm that specializes in gauging the political views of the Latino community, Harry Reid captured a staggering 90% of the Latino vote, which gave him an approximate 65,676-vote plurality amongst Latino voters. He won the race by a difference of 41,244 votes, underscoring the fact that Latinos helped Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle. In Colorado, Latinos helped the Democrats hold on to the governorship as well as Michael Bennet's senate seat, while in California, they deepened the blue hue of the Golden State.
So as the affable President travels to the Island of Enchantment this week to fulfill a promise, his secret hope will be to enchant U.S. Latinos watching the President from the mainland with all eyes on the 2012 U.S. presidential race.
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National Poll Reveals Immigration Remains Top Issue for Latino Voters
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Air Force Campaign One to Puerto Rico
Obama Appoints Latina Political Director For Reelection Campaign
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
However, when Puerto Ricans move to the mainland (one of the U.S. states), they can vote for president like any other American citizen (by birth).
Puerto Ricans tend to vote heavily Democrat.
And they fight over this constantly and it is part of election time rhetoric.
Been there, done that. (I lived in Puerto Rico for years.)
****The Puerto Rican "Democratic" Party is not quite the same as the regular U.S. Democratic Party. (Called the Popular Party in Puerto Rico.)
They are aligned though with the regular stateside Democrats.
This is the "commonwealth" (territory status quo) party.
****The New Progressive Party is the island "Republican" party that is also not quite the same as stateside and is aligned with the Republican Party of the U.S.
They support statehood.
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Yea, the "Repug" Puerto Rican party favors statehood....and if Puerto Rico becomes a state, they will probably vote heavily (U.S.) Democrat!!!
Now Obama is promising yet one more plebiscite for Puerto Ricans to decide their choice of political status options, vis a vis the US. There have been half a dozen of these plebiscites in the past all of which have yielded inconclusive results.
Even if a plebiscite, or poll, of status choices yielded a clear winner, like all the others it would prove to be ultimately futile, because in the end only the US Congress in its questionable wisdom can decide Puerto Rican status.If and when it came to Congress to decide, their decision will be ruled by local political interests placed first and what Puerto Ricans actually have decided placed last.
Regardless, hope springs eternal among the right-wing Insular government and they plan to ram through a sequence of plebiscite questions virtually guaranteeing an eventual outcome favoring Statehood. This ham-fisted strategy is causing great consternation in the Island among the proponents of independence and "free association", the current status-quo.
If it ever came to a vote in Congress, the Republicans would refuse to accept a 52nd state because it would mean a lot of new Spanish speaking brown-skinned people voting and Republicans don't want more people voting, especially if they are not wealthy and Anglo Saxon.
It just confuses people.
As far as the leaders....they are half and half.........half for statehood and half for the commonwealth (territory) status quo.
And there are a few independence supporters in the mix.
The voters are also split.....somewhere like 52% commonwealth, 46% statehood, and 2% independence.
****This could have changed, but usually between commonwealth and statehood....maybe statehood has inched up?
Simply put, there are NOT enough votes for statehood.
YET.
Now he heads to Puerto Rico to garner progressive support - Mi casa es su casa. The way that the impending referendum is worded would virtually assure statehood for the island commonwealth, through the back door of the “Tennessee Plan”, giving progressives 6 new seats in the US House of Representatives and 2 new progressives in the US Senate.
Under the provisions of (HR 2499, 2010) the “Tennessee Plan” Puerto Rico could basically declare its statehood, selected representation, and appear before Congress to be admitted to the union and be seated. Next on the vote agenda will be the District of Columbia.
See: http://networkinparadise.blogspot.com/2011/06/political-point-of-view.html
Americans for a Free Puerto Rico
Oh, and you admit you were wrong when you invaded us in 1898.
Good luck trying to get rid of the island.
Only 2% of all Puerto Ricans on the island favor independence.
Yea, aprox. 98% WANT their American citizenship. (Even some blowhards who complain all the time.)
I LIVED in Puerto Rico for years!
Check the latest poll by the major newspaper in Puerto Rico and the only newspaper with a constant poll tradition: Independence 7% , Enhanced or Sovereign Commonwealth (which is not Territorial or Colonial) 39%
Also, you should know that pro independence voters have been voting for the pro sovereignty Commonwealth party, those votes gave that party it's victory in 2004. A Sovereign commonwealth means Puerto Rican citizenship as well, so it is totally untrue that 98% only want US citizenship.
The statehood option has never gone past 46%, a total failure and those who support statehood do it just because they want food coupons and do not work.