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Joseph Bafumi

Entries by Joseph Bafumi

A Forecast of the 2010 House Election Outcome

(5006) Comments | Posted August 27, 2010 | 1:23 PM

How many House seats will the Republicans gain in 2010? To answer this question, we have run 1,000 simulations of the 2010 House elections. The simulations are based on information from past elections going back to 1946. Our methodology replicates that for our ultimately successful forecast of the 2006 midterm....

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Obama in 2008? Race and the Electoral Map

(72) Comments | Posted August 12, 2008 | 7:07 PM

Early indicators suggest 2008 should be a very good year for Democrats. By any measure, Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, should be president in 2009. Voters have a strong preference for change. They are extremely dissatisfied with America's present course. President Bush's approval numbers are at record lows.

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What the Numbers Really Say

(19) Comments | Posted November 2, 2006 | 4:04 PM

Although the Democrats hold a large advantage in generic ballot polls, there has been considerable uncertainty regarding whether the Democrats would win enough seats to control the U.S. House of Representatives. Doubts are often expressed about the accuracy of the generic ballot polls (polls which ask respondents only which party...

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