What events, actions, and findings had the most positive or negative impact on the likelihood that the nation and the world will act in time to avoid catastrophic warming?
Since the #1 story is way too obvious to generate any drama, I will start there and then go back and count down from 10 to 2.
1. Team Without Rivals. A year ago, the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra Pachauri, desperately warned, "If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment." That means the next president and his cabinet, more than any other group, will determine my future and your future and our children's future, and perhaps the future of the next 50 generations to walk the earth. Fortunately, the American people rejected the old greenwasher and new denier nominated by the Drill, baby, Drill crowd -- and now we will be led by the greenest, most scientifically informed, radical pragmatists in the history of the Republic:
- Obama: "The science is beyond dispute... Delay is no longer an option. Denial is no longer an acceptable response."
- Why Biden is such an important pick for those who care about the climate
- SOS trumps NSA (Hillary Clinton trumps Gen. Jones)
- Carol Browner to oversee energy and climate at the White House
- Top 5 reasons Chu is a great energy pick -- #1: "It's not guaranteed we have a solution for coal"
- Obama picks a green jobs leader for Labor Secretary: Hilda Solis
- The first green Secretary of Commerce
- For NOAA head, Obama appoints yet another scientist who gets climate
- Obama's strongest message on climate yet: John Holdren to be named Science Adviser
10. Gas Pains. As NOAA reported, levels of methane rose sharply in 2007 for the first time since 1998. Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, especially over the near term. And the tundra has as much carbon locked away in it as the atmosphere contains today. Scientific analysis suggests the rise in 2007 methane levels came from Arctic wetlands. The tundra melting is probably the most worrisome of all the climate-carbon-cycle amplifying feedbacks -- and it could easily take us to the unmitigated catastrophe of 1000 ppm. Though you should also worry that the methane might be coming the underwater permafrost, which is also thawing and releasing methane. Or from the drying of the Northern peatlands (bogs, moors, and mires). If methane rises again in 2008 -- and NASA reported another brutally hot year for the Siberian tundra -- then that will probably be among the top three global warming stories of 2008.
9. The Thrilla in Vanilla. OK, it wasn't Ali-Frazier, but Henry Waxman's smackdown of John Dingell for chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee was high drama with high consequences. Finally, we have a champion of serious action and strong regulation, someone who gets the dire nature of global warming, in charge of the crucial committee for climate and energy.
8. Ice, Ice maybe not. Everywhere scientists look, ice is disappearing:
- Two trillion tons of land ice lost since 2003, rate of Greenland summer ice loss triples 2007 record
- WMO confirms "Overall [Arctic] ice volume was less than that in any other year"
- Another climate impact comes faster than predicted: Himalayan glaciers "decapitated"
- NSIDC: Arctic melt passes the point of no return, "We hate to say we told you so, but we did"
- The Antarctic ice sheet hits the fan
- Greenland ice loss soars: Bad for you, great for bottled water biz
- US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level rise in 2100 will likely "substantially exceed" IPCC projections
- Startling new sea level rise research: "Most likely" 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100
- Sea levels may rise 5 feet by 2100
- Report from AGU meeting: One meter sea level rise by 2100 "very likely" even if warming stops?
5. 350 is the new 450. Led by the nation's top climate scientist, James Hansen, a number of leading scientists argued that the "old" target scientists have been arguing for -- stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm -- isn't enough: Stabilize at 350 ppm or risk ice-free planet, warn NASA, Yale, Sheffield, Versailles, Boston et al. In December, America's leading spokesman for climate action, Al Gore, embraced the 350 ppm target.
4. Clean tech shines. While the rest of the financial system melts down, cleantech venture investment hit a record $2.6B in the third quarter. Is that a lot of money? Well, of that $2.6B, some $1.7B went to U.S. companies, which is about three times the comparable annual R&D budget in the Energy Department office I once ran, the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) program, which did -- and still does -- the bulk of the federal government clean tech funding. And VCs like Kleiner Perkins ramped up funding while the Bush administration gutted some of the most important research and deployment EERE had.
Some key clean technologies really began to shine in 2008, including perhaps the most important low-carbon energy source, solar thermal baseload, and the most important alternative fuel vehicle, electric cars and plug in hybrids. It should now be clear that all the technology we need to stabilize at 450 ppm (or lower) is here or will be in a few years (see "McKinsey 2008 Research in Review: Stabilizing at 450 ppm has a net cost near zero").
3. Desperate Scientists, Season II. The world's top climate scientists are once again begging for action, with many more going public to warn just how dire a fate we face on our current path:
- Hadley Center: "Catastrophic" 5-7°C warming by 2100 on current emissions path
- Climate change is accelerating warns top German scientist
- Study: Water-vapor feedback is "strong and positive," so we face "warming of several degrees Celsius"
- Must-read IEA report explains what must be done to avoid 6°C warming
- Nobel laureate Rowland agrees we are headed to 1000 ppm
The entire conservative movement, including pundits, think tanks, and politicians, now appears willing to stake the future of humanity on their willful ignorance.
- Virtually every conservative in the Senate voted against the Boxer-Lieberman-Warner climate bill even though that bill was inadequate to stopping catastrophic warming.
- James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) believes a cap & trade bill will return GOP to power "in 2010"
- Grover Norquist asserts that calls to take global warming more seriously will be "cheerfully ignored"
- 64% of GOP voters say global warming denier Palin is their top choice for 2012,
- "Several prominent party officials said they believe the GOP's message is fundamentally sound when it comes to energy policy, pointing to that issue as one of the few political bright spots in recent years."
- The Heritage Foundation even opposes energy efficiency
- The American Enterprise Institute is still crazy with denial and delay after all these years
- The Cato Institute believes adaptation is cheaper than mitigation.
- Columns by Charles Krauthammer and George Will and John Tierney have become science-free zones that demand more climate research while inveighing against all serious climate action and against all non-nuclear clean tech.
If the Obama climate dream team is going to lead the nation and the world into a World War II scale effort to save humanity from self-destruction, they will be waging a difficult two-front war -- against the ever-accelerating reality of climate change itself and against the immovable unreality of "anti-science conservatives."