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Josh Sugarmann

Josh Sugarmann

Posted: December 1, 2010 01:44 PM

Concealed handgun license holders in the Wolverine State commit suicide at a rate higher than the general Michigan population according to information analyzed by my organization, the Violence Policy Center, as part of our Concealed Carry Killers project, an on-line resource that tallies reports of killings by concealed handgun permit holders that have not been determined to be legitimate self defense.

According to information from the Michigan State Police, for the period July 1, 2007 through June 30, 2008, 29 of Michigan's 164,793 concealed handgun license holders took their own lives for a concealed handgun license holder suicide rate of 17.6 per 100,000 license holders. For the period July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2009, 28 of Michigan's 182,749 concealed handgun license holders took their own lives for a concealed handgun license holder suicide rate of 15.3 per 100,000 license holders.

In comparison, in 2007 Michigan's suicide rate for the general population was 11.3 per 100,000. In 2008, the suicide rate for the general population was 11.7 per 100,000. Only data for each calendar year is available and data for 2009 has not yet been released.

But the fact that Michigan concealed handgun license holders have a higher rate of suicide than the state's general population is even more striking given that Michigan law prohibits the issuance of concealed handgun licenses to persons where the local issuing authority has "probable cause to believe that the applicant would be a threat to himself or herself or to other individuals." Michigan's mental health standards for concealed handgun licenses go beyond the federal standards for gun possession. Under federal law, only those persons who have been "adjudicated as a mental defective" or committed to a mental institution are prohibited from possessing firearms.

Without doubt, these 57 deaths will be easily dismissed by pro-gun advocates--who are quick to throw their comrades in arms under the bus whenever the reality of guns in America fails to comport with their own blindered vision.

To date Concealed Carry Killers has documented 188 incidents since May 2007 in 28 states resulting in 276 deaths. In more than two-thirds (129 incidents), the concealed handgun permit holder has already been convicted, committed suicide, or was killed in the incident. Of the 59 cases still pending, the vast majority (49) of concealed handgun permit holders have been charged with criminal homicide, two were deemed incompetent to stand trial, two incidents were unintentional shootings, and six incidents are still under investigation.

If every state that allows concealed carry maintained the level of information and public disclosure that Michigan does, who knows how many additional hidden suicides and non-self defense killings we'd be aware of (Michigan is one of the few states, if not the only, that collects and releases such comprehensive data on those permitted to carry concealed weapons). What we do know, however, is that the debate over concealed carry in America would be far more well informed and the end result far, far different.

But therein lies the raw truth of the pro-concealed carry movement: They're afraid of the release of actual information--lest reality push aside rhetoric.

 

Follow Josh Sugarmann on Twitter: www.twitter.com/VPCinfo

 
 
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OdinsEye
Korean-Latino cop and combat vet
05:31 PM on 12/04/2010
"But therein lies the raw truth of the pro-concealed carry movement: They're afraid of the release of actual information--lest reality push aside rhetoric. "

More that they don't want groups like VPC, MAIG, and Brady to misuse and misrepresent that data, as we have shown repeatedly they like to do -- just as reason that trace data got yanked from public access is because of abuses by groups like Brady, MAIG, and VPC.
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OdinsEye
Korean-Latino cop and combat vet
10:19 PM on 12/03/2010
Previously we have pointed out flaws in Josh's CCW Killers stats such as mistaking permits to purchase with permits to carry, including people with expired or revoked permits, and including incidents where the perpetrator was not carrying concealed in public.

Flaws in his CCW Suicide stats include comparing different age groups, including suicides by means other than firearms, and including suicides by means other than handguns (CCW is generally restricted to handguns).
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OdinsEye
Korean-Latino cop and combat vet
08:07 PM on 12/03/2010
"In comparison, in 2007 Michigan's suicide rate for the general population was 11.3 per 100,000. "

When corrected for age 21 and up, which is the same age group as have concealed carry permits, the rate was 14.73 according to the CDC (2007, Michigan, Suicide Injury Deaths and Rates per 100,000, All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 21 to 85+, ICD-10 Codes: X60-X84, Y87.0,*U03).

The rate involving firearms was 7.36 (2007, Michigan, Suicide Firearm Deaths and Rates per 100,000, All Races, Both Sexes, Ages 21 to 85+, ICD-10 Codes: X72-X74).
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Sugarmaker
Act like what you do makes a difference, it does
10:05 PM on 12/03/2010
So the ccw suicied rate is actually LOWER when corrected for the 21+ age group. Thanks for putting in the time to make this an apples to apples comparison.

Josh - are you having a tantrum yet?
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Sugarmaker
Act like what you do makes a difference, it does
02:48 PM on 12/03/2010
Sugarmanns study did not correct for the fact that Michigan CCW holders are over 21 and 25% of the general population is thus excluded. Those 21% have very low suicide rates, which skews Sugarmanns data. Of course, that is the point of his study.

From http://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/publications/suicide-in-the-us-statistics-and-prevention/index.shtml
* Children ages 10 to 14 — 0.9 per 100,000
* Adolescents ages 15 to 19 — 6.9 per 100,000

Children 0-10 are essentially zero.
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rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
12:22 PM on 12/04/2010
He also failed to correct for the fact that CCW holders are 80-85% male, and suicide rate for males in the general population is 4-5 times higher than females.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Dimensio
I just don't know what went wrong!
03:08 PM on 12/04/2010
I do not believe that Mr. Sugarmann's presentation is the result of a failure.  Mr. Sugarmann's goal was to suggest that concealed weapons permits produce detrimental effect regardless of actual reality.  In that goal, Mr. Sugarmann has succeeded.
01:05 PM on 12/03/2010
"Concealed handgun license holders in the Wolverine State commit suicide at a rate higher than the general Michigan population..."

What is your proposed solution?
11:20 AM on 12/03/2010
Josh Sugarmann and the VPC exist solely to make guns seem scary. All their studies are largely insignificant I don't think they've ever had much influence on legislation being passed or not, except maybe the .50 'sniper' rifle. It is sensationalist drivel, intended to be nothing more than scare tactics for the sake of having at least somebody in a crowd shouting about how scary guns are. Fortunately they are losing relevance and funding.
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mackbolan
Libertas inaestimabilis res est
10:26 AM on 12/03/2010
looks they gave gun control its own page so they could get it off the front page....your agenda is dead...we won...you lost...get over it...
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12:23 PM on 12/03/2010
It's interesting that they created a "Gun Control" page rather than a Crime and Violence page which would naturally include the gun violence issues Mssrs. Helmke, Henigan, Horwitz, and Sugarmann care so passionately about. Sort of like creating a "Divorce" page instead of a Family and Relationships page (which would naturally include the subject of divorce). It certainly clarifies their priorities in my mind.
06:58 PM on 12/02/2010
So basically what you are saying is that if these people did not have a CC permit they would not have killed themselves some other way? Guns may be more effective in killing yourself but there are plenty of other ways to go about it if you really want to.
07:55 PM on 12/02/2010
More importantly, a CCW permit is not needed to buy or own a gun, so one could just as easily buy a gun and use it for suicide without one.
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02:38 PM on 12/02/2010
What is the gender and age breakdown for the two groups? Any data on motives, such as physical health problems?
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DaveNYC
12:49 PM on 12/02/2010
There is a documented link between access to firearms and suicide rates. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/17/health/17risk.html Basically, guns are effective weapons, and people who try to kill themselves with guns are more likely to succeed. While I haven't seen a study, I am guessing that drunks who have access to cars are more likely to die in drunk driving accidents.

In light of this baseline observation, it is difficult to attach any significance to Mr. Sugarmann's showing. Aside from the observation that the sample size is too small to be of high statistical significance (and Mr. Sugarmann doesn't pretend to apply proper statistical principles), even if it is accepted as true it doesn't tell us anything. Presumably, almost all CCW holders already own guns and are already within the group of people who -- relative to the general population -- are a little more likely to be successful at suicide, should they try.

... So what does CCW have to do with anything?
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rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
06:37 PM on 12/02/2010
All correct, except that if you look at the numbers critically, they actually show that Michigan CCW permit holders are LESS likely to commit suicide than a demographically comparable population (i.e. over 21 years old, 80% male), despite being far more likely to have access to a firearm.
07:12 PM on 12/02/2010
Mr. Sugarmann's faulty conclusion is based on the fact that he left out the Male/Female comparison of the demographics of CCW holders, he only looked at the Male/Female combined suicide rate for CCW holders, correct?
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Joe Goforth
12:27 PM on 12/02/2010
People need to understand that the Genie is out of the bottle and unfortunately he can't be put back in it. Guns are here to stay in the world and there are already so many of them out there that there is not much we can do to completely control them. If we completely banned them there will be people that will make them anyway. Look at what happens in prisons where there is total security and inmates still manage to get weapons. It seems to me that it makes sense to allow peaceful citizens to arm and protect themselves and this does in effect suppress crime. In addition most Americans don't realize that shooting is a fun family sport. You don't need to kill anything to become proficient and safe with a firearm. There is a growing argument that American arms are feeding the drug gangs in Mexico and this is true. But if you think about it completely controlling the border could eliminate this problem. I recommend that even if you don't plan on owning a gun you should expose yourself to some type of firearm training in order to form a unbiased view of gun ownership. And by the way, police often fear a knife attack more than a gun at distances of less than 25 feet. More on knife control later.
02:08 PM on 12/02/2010
I totally agree with 95% of what you said, but you mentioned one thing that I don't think you are fully educated on. It's true, guns are going into Mexico from the US but at a much lower rate than what has been touted.

The number you most likely commonly here is "90% of all guns seized in Mexico are from the US". This is false.

It is 90% of all guns that **could be traced** were from the US. I don't have all the numbers and reports handy, but I know someone on here does. Over 150,000 Mexican soldiers have deserted in the past 6 years. Those are 150,000 automatic rifles that technically came from the US, our government.

Any RPGs, grenades or other explosives as well as any automatic weapons did not come from the US. The Cartels control airports so smuggling shipments across land and sea is not difficult. Don't quote me on this but I believe anything sold on the black market out of china and south-east Europe will not have a serial number, so it can't be tracked.

I'm not saying that there isn't a smuggling black-market problem on our borders... of course there is. But that claim of 90% has been used to stir up public outrage and it's completely false.

I hope someone else jumps in here with the reports.
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Sugarmaker
Act like what you do makes a difference, it does
09:54 PM on 12/03/2010
A post to go along with what stonewalker says above:

Read page 74 of thie following .pdf to see the Department of Homeland Security's view of the figures Henigan is citing. They're calling it BS.

http://www­.gao.gov/n­ew.items/d­09709.pdf”

Some are turned off by fox news but here's a link claiming a 17% figure:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/02/myth-percent-small-fraction-guns-mexico-come/

Factcheck.org is fairly liberal and offers this viewpoint, saying the number may be 36%
http://www.newsweek.com/2009/04/19/counting-mexico-s-guns.html

I personally looked at the available trace data from ATF and got 18% - the atf agent factcheck got info from appeared to have some "special" data that's not available. Such figures are highly suspect given the agenda driven focus of the largely anti-gun ATF.
11:40 AM on 12/02/2010
Guns are for all practical purposes banned in Japan. According to WHO stats, the suicide rate there is 36.5 per 100,000 for males and 14.1 per 100,000 for females. This is a blatant case of "playing with the numbers" to further VPC's relentless, "religious" crusade -- but it does get headlines and is blindly accepted by those too lazy to do a bit of research. A rudimentary application of statistics would completely debunk most of the VPC/Brady's claims, but would hardly serve their "purpose."
11:28 AM on 12/02/2010
And what exactly does a CCW permit have to do with suicide? How would that effect suicide one way or the other?

It doesn't of course, but when all the facts are against you, sometimes strawmen are the only things you have. As such, Josh must resort to non-issues since the facts of the real issues are all against him.
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rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
12:24 PM on 12/02/2010
As with his CCW Killers numbers, Josh's statistics prove the exact opposite of what he wants the reader to infer.

Simple math proves that a demographically comparable slice of the Michigan general population would have a suicide rate greater than 19 per 100 thousand.  So CCW permit holders as a population are actually LESS likely to commit suicide than a relevant portion of the general population.
08:02 PM on 12/01/2010
How did these individuals kill themselves?
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rikilii
Hush, was the first word you were taught...
05:14 PM on 12/01/2010
Some important facts Josh leaves out:

-The suicide rate among males in Michigan is 18.9/100,000.

The vast majority of concealed carry permit holders are male.

His statistics for suicide in the general population include age groups that are not eligible to get concealed carry licenses, and which happen to have generally lower suicide rates than adult age groups.

Josh, what was the rate of suicides among male concealed carry permit holders, compared to the general suicide rate for males over the age of 21?

Here's a partial answer:  the suicide rate among males 20 and over in Michigan is over 20 per 100,000.  http://www.sprc.org/stateinformation/PDF/statedatasheets/mi_datasheet.pdf
10:06 PM on 12/01/2010
Here's even more. He hasn't taken into account that the population of CCW holders skew older than the general population, even older than 21. Most CCW holders are over 40. Guess what age category is most prone to suicide?
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2007/04/21/weekinreview/20070422_MARSH_GRAPHIC.html
When the gun grabbers tell you about the 81 "gun deaths" per day, 25 of them are white male suicides over the age of 40. Maybe the problem isn't guns, but hopelessness, divorce, and bad health.
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02:40 PM on 12/02/2010
Thanks to you and to sdsorrentino for this info. These missing variables were the first things that came to my mind (I did ace social statistics in college) when I read the article.