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The Clinton Convention Coup: Not Impossible
Tony Campbell at Examiner.com on July 30 reported that Hillary Clinton supporters are quietly planning a coup to claim the presidential nomination from Barack Obama on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention.
At that time, Campbell wrote, "The group, P.U.M.A. (Party Unity My A**), claims that 15 delegates have switched from Obama to Clinton in July. There is still the possibility of a floor convention vote to fully seat the delegates of Michigan and Florida, which would benefit Senator Clinton. Finally, the Obama flip-flop on the FISA bill has not been well received by the more liberal segments of the Democratic faithful."
Well, now we know that Florida and Michigan will be seated and Clinton's name will be put in for nomination.
Given that 2025 votes are needed for the nomination, the pro-Hillary website DoneDems.com suggests these hopeful numbers: "Obama has about 2229.5 delegate votes, with 1766.5 pledged delegates and 463 superdelegates. Clinton has 1896.5 delegate votes, with 1639.5 pledged and 257 super delegates. Shift just 175 delegates from Obama to Clinton, and Obama's power grab comes to a halt."
By my own count, Hillary is only 128.5 votes short of 2025, which actually is easier to achieve than 175 votes, but I'm not sure even this number is correct. I'll do some more reporting on this point and report my findings here.
The core question remains: Could a Clinton coup happen? The odds are against success, but Obama is vulnerable.
More...
The pivotal issue is whether Clinton can pick up enough superdelegates who feel Obama's recent actions or McCain's consistent poll numbers cast doubt on Obama's electability.
Obama has alienated many progressive Democrats who believe he's moved too far to the right since becoming the presumptive nominee last June. His about-face from prior positions to support warrantless wiretaps and offshore oil drilling, quite frankly, suggests that Obama values public opinion polls more than moral principles.
Obama's weak response to the Russian invasion of Georgia, staying on vacation in Hawaii while McCain assertively sent representatives to the troubled region, further reinforces doubts about Obama's ability to handle foreign crises.
Obama's ineffective response to McCain's attack ads, meanwhile, begs the question of his ability to take on McCain in the general election.
My experience as a political journalist says the Democratic National Convention has been so carefully stage managed that a surprise upset is improbable, but increasingly I'm wondering if it's totally impossible.
So, I have to agree with Tony Campbell that if there is an Obama-Clinton showdown at the DNC, the contest will be exciting. Campbell plans to sit glued to his TV screen back in Washington, DC. I'll gratefully be watching from inside the convention here in Denver. Stay tuned!
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anything is possible...except BO beinge elected president
"The pivotal issue is whether Clinton can pick up enough superdelegates who feel Obama's recent actions or McCain's consistent poll numbers cast doubt on Obama's electability."
Reporters are truly desperate for some excitement. Even so, I can't believe anyone is peddling absurd ideas like this. Your own personal desire for blood sport is no reason to encourage the PUMA delusions. Earth to PUMA: superdelegates are not going to budge. EVEN IF they were having the doubts these deluded types think might be possible, which I HIGHLY doubt, if a coup were pulled off, Dems would lose in a landslide. Bloomberg would likely jump in to boot so that Obama supporters wouldn't even have to vote for McCain to get payback.
OK .............. Worst Cast Scenario ......................... Hillary's PUMAs pull a coup and Obama is out.
That leaves 70 + days until the election with a MAJOR SPLIT IN THE PARTY.
What makes Hillary and her PUMAs believe that Obama's supporters would AUTOMATICALLY vote for Hillary?
What makes Hillary and her PUMAs believe that everyone would be OK with the coup and IMMEDIATELY FORGIVE her?
70 + days is too short a time to HEAL WOUNDS.
Hillary would certainly lose the election by a landslide, kill any political future for herself, and we would have to suffer a 3rd Bush term.
Americans would certainly PUNISH theClintons who believe it is their God-given right to re-enter the white house with Hillary as POTUS............... MILLIONS OF DEMOCRATS WOULD STAY HOME ON ELECTION DAY TO MAKE SURE HILLARY LOSES.
Obama IS STILL YOUNG, and can always run again in 2012, with an even greater support from the voters would not have forgotten the 2008 Clinton fiasco.
The ONLY one who loses in any CONVENTION DRAMA would be Hillary.
BUT ALL 250 PUMAS HAVE SHOWN THAT THEY WOULD PREFER TO LOSE AN ELECTION TO THE REPUBLICANS THAN HAVE A BLACK MAN BECOME POTUS.
(Continued)
If mccain win:
Don't say a word when your children and grandchildren are fighting wars this delusional, PTSD-stricken madman will start any time someone says something he doesn't like.....
Don't say a word when women are found bleeding to death in back alley's...
Don't say a word when our country spiral down into even more debt because we are determined to rule the world......
Don't say a word when the rest of the world have the courage to say about America what we can't, won't , or don't......
Obama has put far too much faith in this country. Apparently we don't want to do better.
Like a dog returning to its vomit we will vote in another gwb.....
Or fight to the bitter end for the likes of a hillary.....
And keep insisting ".....there's just something about him (Obama) I just don't .......trust, like, believe, feel comfortable with.....take your pick.
LIke the crazy lady wearing her underwear on the outside, her eyeliner smeared, and her lipstick painted around her head, believing she is the epitome of haute couture.
Everyone else is shaking their head not only because she looks horrible, but is too deluded to know better.
"Obama's weak response to the Russian invasion of Georgia, staying on vacation in Hawaii while McCain assertively sent representatives to the troubled region, further reinforces doubts about Obama's ability to handle foreign crises."
Yet when the Obama went on his world tour he was called "presumptuous" and there wasn't a rocket launcher in sight.
It's time to detach......
The hypocrisy, double-standards, and plain old BS is starting to get to me.
No wonder this country elected gwb twice.....
No wonder we have the likes of pumas hellbent on derailing this process.....
No wonder the rest of the world look at us preen, crow, and break our arms patting ourselves on the back for being a beacon of hope......and split their sides laughing at our delusion.....
No wonder Putin told the US to kiss his *ss
No wonder N. Korea told gwb to kiss HIS *ss.....
No wonder the rest of the world is looking on in stunned amazement as we attempt to destroy the best thing to happen to this country in a long time.
I am an American and I am disgusted with the whole flipping country. And cannot fathom for the life of me why Senator Obama want to be president of this schizophrenic mess called America.
If he loses, America deserves it.
My sentiments exactly. I am amazed at how people polarize themselves blind sometimes.
Honestly I'm not sure how much difference it would make at this point. I think Obama will lose, I KNOW Hillary will lose in November so nationally I don't see much difference. Personally I CAN hold my nose and vote Obama and really can't for Clinton so I see it making a bigger personal difference but not one I'd get too upset over to tell the truth.
I can't see how progressive Democrats could turn to Hillary. The Clintons are conservatives who are influenced by and catering to Big Business. With Obama there is at least hope. What we need is progressive veto proof Senat and House majorities which will move this country forward in the right direction.
Bill Clinton destroyed the heart of the Democratic Party and now he and his consort are attempting to destroy its shell. They could give Uriah Heep a run for his money.
I'm no fan of Bill Clinton but honestly if the Democratic party still had a heart in '92 then we'd never have heard of him.
How did this article get in here? It is truthful, balanced, and thoughtful. Somebody is really falling down on the job - thank God!
Truth is an antidote to Kool-Aid, just so you know. You might want to be careful about how much of these excellent articles you read, kids.
LOL and agreed! However, i wouldn't call it a coup exactly - more like a return to normalcy. What amuses me, is the silence on this post...are the Kool Aid drinkers sleeping off the effects?
The people who continue to entertain these kinds of thoughts are simply divorced from reality. Really. Obama is the nominee. Period. No Obama delegate, super or otherwise, is even considering such nonsense, and the elected Democratic officials, even those who had been for Hillary, are deeply involved now in the campaign. (Bayh, Vilaraigosa, etc.) Delegates are busy figuring out how to get extra tickets for their friends and relatives to the Thursday night INVESCO event, which is sold out. The VP nominee will be announced soon. Hillary is worrying about how to pay down her debt.
How is Obama the nominee? There has not been a vote. Just because MSNBC talking heads say it doesn't make it true. It seems you are divorced from reality.
Obama is the nominee in the same way McCain is. The majority of delegates have declared for him, and all his opponents, including Senator Clinton, have endorsed him. I'm a convention delegate, and in pretty regular contact with others, and what we're all doing now is what all Democrats who actually care about things like reproductive choice, health care, the war and America's standing in the world are doing -- busy organizing for the general election to ensure that Republicans don't continue to ruin this country for another eight years.
Many of Clinton's delegates are unhappy that they need to be put on the line at the convention, as they are worried about suffering ramifications at the polls if they cast their first vote for her.
But what would be the point? Say it happens, and Hillary Clinton is our nominee. She starts September 20 million dollars in the hole. Are these people daft?
The debt (much of which is paid off) is her Primary Campaign.
She has over 30 million ready for the general - if she took public financing she would have 110 million by Sept 1st. Her donors are untapped - they donate to the DNC en masse in September. She'll have more cash than O does.
most evidence suggest that she still has quite a ways to go in paying off her primary debt. that said, if she took public financing she have 84 million, you don't get to keep the GE money you've raised, she'd have to send it back. again the idea that her donors are completely untapped is not based in reality, it's exactly the reason that late in the campaign she had to seek out smaller donors, so again the notion that they'd all donate massive sums to the DNC at the snap of her fingers doesn't make sense.
If what Mr. Freed seems to joyfully anticipate actually happens, we can all kiss goodbye the Democratic Party's hopes of capturing the White House. In fact, it could be suicidal for the party as a whole. If Hillary's supporters threaten to not support Obama, imagine the disillusionment among Obama supporters if she is able to pull of this sort of coup. She would be totally unelectable by the majority of voters, kissing her own political future goodbye, and that of the Democratic Party too.
How so? The only ones who called this race were the media. They were wrong ala DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. So what? HRC's moderates will vote Repub. O's progressives will live with HRC - she's actually MORE progressive than O on many many issues including energy, civil libertes, women's rights, etc. O can't win. He's polling lower and losing swings much earlier than any dem candidate in decades. If you want a Dem in the White House, it must be HRC. The delegates know that. It's just a matter of having the news networks admit that they were wrong.
If you think Hilliary can steal the nomination and win the election, you are an idiot. If she did, the democratic party as we know it would no longer exist and God only knows the turmoil it would bring.
Please cite specifics for Clinton being more progressive than Obama. I do not see them and in foreign policy, she is akin to the neocons.
WRONG. Bloomberg would jump in, and I would vote for him over either Hillary or McCain.
If this happens, we can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye. I am a 62-year-old white woman and I, my family, and many of my friends will never contribute to or vote for a Democrat again and will put all our political energy into working for a party that actually represents us.
I am a retired 85 year old Canadian school teacher. I have a deep interest in this election. I am somewhat Americanized as I studied at two American universities in my youth I don't know why my posts keep disappearing. It looks like the particular solutions to the Obama problems and to the heartstopping danger America is in if McCain wins I have been posting are too proHillary as VP for the moderator or somebody. But there is more to my interest in having Obama choose the obvious person who should be his VP. It's that if he doesn't and loses, we in Canada will be hugely affected. We have to get rid of our own neocon people in office in our upcoming election. If you don't pull yourselves out of the mire, we will also be in it with you..
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Posted August 19, 2008 | 01:38 AM (EST)