There were 23 debates during the Democratic primary and part of my job on the Hillary campaign was to monitor the post-debate reaction in the media. I watched hundreds of self-described political experts instantly declare who won and who lost.
Here's what I learned: the pundits are full of it. They don't know any more than you do and many of them have a vested interest in tilting the scales one way or another. After the debate ends, if you want to know who won, turn off the TV. You can figure it out for yourself.
The first thing to understand is that the winner of the debate isn't the person who makes the best arguments. If it was, Al Gore would be finishing up his second term. The winner of the debate is the person who moves votes to their side. You can figure out who that will be by focusing on these three factors:
1. 30 seconds are more important than 90 minutes. Although tens of millions of people will watch the debate, most everyone will forget the bulk of it immediately. The lasting impression of the debate for most voters will be the two or three exchanges -- usually less than 15 seconds long -- that are replayed, discussed, and analyzed over and over again. More often than not, whoever gets the best of these moments wins the debate.
For example, in the Des Moines Register debate in mid-December, Obama was asked a pretty tough question: How he could rely on so many former Clinton advisers and still represent a break from the past? Hillary laughed and said, "I want to hear that!" Obama flashed a smile and shot back: "Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me as well." It was a pitch-perfect response and catnip for the media, which played the exchange repeatedly for days. Overall, Hillary turned in a very solid performance and demonstrated an impressive command of the issues. But it didn't matter. Obama had won the key 15 seconds and it gave him a critical boost just days before the Iowa caucus.
John Edwards was generally regarded as an excellent debater. So why was it that the debates never seemed to help him much in the polls? He never really did anything memorable. (Quick: name one line Edwards said in a primary debate.) His answers were always smooth, coherent and on message. It didn't do him any good.
Identify who got the better of two or three most memorable exchanges between Obama and McCain and you'll be a long way toward identifying the winner.
2. Mistakes matter, but only some of them. Probably the worst mistake in the Democratic primary debates was Hillary's famous non-answer to a question about drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants. But it wasn't a big mistake because people care deeply about the issue. (When is the last time you've heard driver's licenses mentioned on the campaign trail?) It was important because it fit into a pre-exisiting narrative about Hillary that had been developed by her opponents for some time. Namely, that Hillary is politically calculating and dishonest. Since it reinforced a pre-exisiting narrative it caused Hillary immense damage and sent the campaign into a tailspin from which it never fully recovered.
During the next debate in Nevada, Obama was asked a similar question about drivers licenses for illegal immigrants and gave a similarly meandering answer. Yet, he paid no political price. The reason is simple: no one believed at the time that Obama was dishonest or politically calculating. So a mistake that was debilitating for Hillary was a non-issue for Obama.
In this debate, a mistake on an economic issue will be more damaging to McCain because there is a pre-existing narrative that he isn't knowledgeable or engaged on the economy. Similarly, a mistake on foreign policy would be more damaging to Obama because there is a pre-existing narrative that he may not have the experience to be commander-in-chief.
3. It is a popularity contest. At the end of the day these candidates are trying to get voters to like them. As a result, in many instances, what the candidates say is far less important than how they say it.
During the spring and summer, Obama struggled to gain traction in debates because the delivery of his answers were perceived as detached and professorial. In other words, the things he was saying were smart but he wasn't making friends. In an August debate, Hillary won a lot of admirers when she said with a smile: "For fifteen years, I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger. So if you want a winner who knows how to take them on, I'm your girl!"
The person who is the most relaxed and getting some laughs is usually the winner.
The reason why much of the punditry that follows the debate is inaccurate or irrelevant is that many of the people involved are far more interested in shaping the outcome of the debate than reflecting it. It usually doesn't work, but most give it a shot anyway.
You can do a lot better by thinking for yourself.
Email me your thoughts at judd@juddlegum.com.
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McCain grew more and more frustrated that Obama wouldn't step into his right hook; wouldn't take the bait. Each time McCain would throw the line, Obama would use a judo move of intelligen
McCain tried to earn patriot points by displaying his bracelet honoring a fallen soldier; Obama said "I've got a bracelet too, from the mother of Sergeant Ryan David Jopeck". She doesn't want any more mothers to have to go through what she has with the loss of a child from this stupid war. Obama scored more patriot points than McCain by honoring the brave sacrifice of U.S. soldiers and their families; and reminding us that McCain was willing to "muddle through" Afghanista
I really want to see Obama destroy McCain's arguments, not McCain personally
McCain came across as a kind of stupid bullying old grouch but Obama seemed weak because he was a bit too timid.
I believe this to be his strategy. Acknowledg
The strategy of a truly brilliant negotiator
Speaking of numbers and things statistica
Hinting that that is either due to bad food or being in close proximity to nuclear fusion. If its the latter, and only he can vouch whether it is or is not, then based on his observatio
This is how it boils down for me:
1. I don’t recall any “gotcha” moments for either candidate. (draw)
2. I don’t recall any serious mistakes for either candidate. (draw)
3. The only laugh I remember was when John McCain said, “Were you afraid I couldn’t hear him?” But Barack was with out a doubt the most relaxed... smiling, chuckling, and looking around the room. McCain was stiff as a board. (edge to Barack)
There may be one other factor you didn’t consider..
I was somewhat disappoint
I thought in the end, there were no gaffes so nobody won or lost.
Obama sounded more intelligen
I used to, you know, actually like McCain's persona... but there hasn't been a guy so totally incapable of making a joke since at least NIxon. McCain's attempts at humor are strikingly bad.
Admirer to Adlai Stevenson: You will get the vote of every thinking American !
Adlai Stevenson: Unfortunat
It shouldn't be a question of who won the debate, but rather who is the more credible candidate. And it's obvious that McCain, by a different name, would be Faust!