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Justin Snider

Justin Snider

Posted: October 15, 2010 04:12 PM

One surefire way to get people's attention is to say the exact opposite of what everyone else is saying -- to claim that conventional wisdom is wrong.

And sometimes, of course, conventional wisdom is wrong. This was one of the themes of Freakonomics, the hugely popular book by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt that went on to become a New York Times blog and now a documentary.

Conventional wisdom once held that the world was flat. Oops. Conventional wisdom also once held that cigarettes weren't carcinogenic. Wrong again.

In the field of education, the belief that poor students couldn't learn was once prevalent, as Jay Mathews pointed out in a radio show I was on this week. Also in education, there's been the occasional claim that we need fewer students, not more, going to and graduating from college. This was a central claim by Charles Murray in his recent book Real Education: Four Simple Truths for Bringing America's Schools Back to Reality (2008). Murray says too many people are going to college, and that ultimately this is very detrimental to the U.S. economy. (Forget not that Murray himself is not just a college graduate -- of Harvard, no less -- but also the holder of a Ph.D. from MIT.)

Now we have the deputy editorial-page editor of Cleveland's Plain Dealer, Kevin O'Brien, saying the same thing. In an op-ed entitled "Ohio is stuck on what 'everybody knows,'" O'Brien writes that "everybody knows" we need more college graduates -- and that "everybody knows" college graduates earn more than high school graduates, and that a more educated workforce would make Ohio a more attractive place for businesses.

Trouble is, he doesn't buy any of it. What "everybody knows," O'Brien says, is actually nonsense.

He concludes with the following flourish:

Ohio already has more college students, more college graduates, more college teachers, more college administrators, more college departments, more college majors, more college courses and more college campuses than it needs. The proof of that is found in the inability of many graduates to find jobs -- especially the jobs for which they ostensibly have been prepared -- in Ohio when they graduate.

What Ohio needs is a chainsaw just for red tape. What Ohio needs is a right-to-work law. What Ohio needs is energy whose cost isn't artificially inflated by government-mandated green fantasies. What Ohio needs is the return of some good, old-fashioned, dirty industry -- the kinds of jobs that employ kids who aren't cut out for college.

You're not going to hear those truths from people who run for office, though. Ohioans aren't ready for them. Everybody knows that.

Hmm. I'm not convinced.

On one point, at least, O'Brien is plain wrong. He writes, "Everybody knows the stats on earnings potential for college graduates vs. high school graduates -- the stats that don't factor in the effect on earnings potential of starting one's working life $60,000 in debt."

Actually, a recent College Board study called "Education Pays 2010: The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society" did precisely this calculation, taking into account both the fact that college graduates enter the workforce in debt and that they sit out of the workforce, on average, four years. The study's conclusion? The break-even point is age 33, after which college graduates' estimated lifetime earnings shoot past those who haven't earned college degrees.

If average life expectancy in the U.S. were under 33 years, then, yes, O'Brien might be right on this point. But average life expectancy in this country is about 78 years. If we're likely to spend much of our lives working -- and most of us are, I'm afraid -- then it seems inarguable that getting the education we need to do rewarding, well-compensated work is a sound investment. Conventional wisdom in this instance might well be right.

2010-10-14-LifetimeEarnings.jpg

(source: "Education Pays 2010," The College Board)

 
One surefire way to get people's attention is to say the exact opposite of what everyone else is saying -- to claim that conventional wisdom is wrong. And sometimes, of course, conventional wisdom is...
One surefire way to get people's attention is to say the exact opposite of what everyone else is saying -- to claim that conventional wisdom is wrong. And sometimes, of course, conventional wisdom is...
 
 
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07:31 AM on 10/18/2010
The mistake these people always make is in lumping all college graduates together. The workplace certainly dosn't need any more history or english graduates. But this country needs more engineering and math and hard science graduates. That is an area we are hfalling behind the Asian nations in, and we will pay for that in the future.
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09:41 PM on 10/16/2010
I think that the problem is that the numbers pushing college education as a huge moneymaker are all from entities within the industry.

Would the "College Board", a group that is based on college educations and putting people in college, say that college is not necessary? Of course not.

There are opportunities for intelligent people that do not require a university degree and these opportunities pay pretty well. I recently paid a rock bottom fee of $50 for some rather light plumbing work that was completed by a retired plumber. That is not a bad fee for someone who is retired even considering insurance and what not.

University can be helpful, but having people attend university and basically guaranteeing that one will be successful is not really all that helpful--or truthful.

Getting into the whole question of worth becomes difficult. How does one adequately measure the opportunity cost attending university? How did this group cited do it?
07:24 AM on 10/16/2010
It would be very interesting to see how the increase in income holds if it were studied by generational cohort. I hypothesize that the returns on a college education were much greater for the "Greatest Generation" and the Baby Boomers than they would be found to be for Gen X, Gen Y, and Millenials.

The skills that our economy and culture need are not necessarily being taught in college. Many people flounder about for years, picking up skills here and there, and trying out different careers, until they find one that clicks with their skills and personality, and with the needs of the economy at the time. I suspect this will be the case more and more as we adventure on into the 21st century. Luckily we now have the tools for both cheap and readily available learning and easier advertising of one's unique abilities. The downside is that it is not so easy in these virtual or overcrowded learning environments to get personal feedback, meetings with people outside your immediate area of interest, and pointers in unlikely directions, which is what an in-person education offers.
12:24 PM on 10/16/2010
eafinct: You are probably correct. As a baby boomer, now retired, it was more career oriented. Once we finished our degrees, we knew where we were going. As a female, only one in my Engineering class at that time, I had a clear idea of the companies I would be applying at, of which there were many. Not so much now.

I have noticed the trend has become more of the social sciences than nerdy (?) sciences. I applaud the President for putting Federal money into Research and Development, of which I was involved in during my 30 years in Engineering. At one time we were the most innovated country in the world. Look what has come out of the space program alone. I see less and less of our young people going into these fields as being a Teacher seems be be the squeaky wheel getting the oil now.

We must get back to a manufacturing society and less of a service oriented, social needs society.
01:34 AM on 10/16/2010
Research by the Bureau of Labor Statistics projected an increase in demand for college grads across the US, and some other researchers have re-examined that finding and concluded that the BLS underestimated the demand (http://chronicle.com/blogs/brainstorm/more-college-graduates-needed/27687). In addition to higher pay, college grads also have lower rates of unemployment.

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09:06 PM on 10/16/2010
Yes, but people have to be studying something useful.