The College Insider: Have We Hit The College Price Ceiling?

A new PEW Research Center study is full of firsts: More students in college than ever before, more students completing high school, fewer high-school dropouts, more boys staying in school, more Hispanic high-school graduates and fewer dropouts, even if their college enrollment rate is flat. The black student population is not part of the good news, with high-school dropout rates up and college enrollment down, but I look to educators and policymakers to figure that one out. The only part of this where I have expertise is the bi-annual bills.

And here's a first you can feel in your checkbook: The biggest increase in enrollment is at two-year community colleges. Enrollment at four-year public and private colleges is pretty static. Cost may be starting, slowly, to trump prestige - because clearly some families are looking at the price tag of name-brand schools and deciding to shop at the educational equivalent of Target, instead, at least for the first two years.

The economy is the subtext of the whole scenario, when you get right to it: People tend to hide out in school when the economy's bad, for two reasons: It's next to impossible to find work, and this way they can pick up a degree that might enhance their employability, should the job market ever improve. Might as well stay in school, the thinking goes, because there's nothing much out there in the real world.

That's a big part of the reason that college numbers are up overall. But up more at two-year schools than at four-year schools? Yes, these schools have traditionally offered motivated kids with less than Ivy League records a chance to get their acts together so they can transfer for junior and senior year. And yes, they've been an economical alternative for families for whom $10,000 or $20,000 per kid per year is like sprinting up Mt. Everest carrying a large backpack with no supplemental oxygen; that is, impossible.

But the jump in numbers means that people who didn't have community college on their aspirational radar screens do, now, and unless I missed the announcement, it's not because there's a traveling band of Nobel laureates lecturing at two-year schools nationwide.

To quote President Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville: "It's the economy, stupid."

Or smart, finally. As a nation, we rarely buy anything at full price anymore, not clothing, not food, not the once-premium-priced Prius, not houses, certainly. And yet we have continued to spend on college, even though you never see a ten percent off sign at a college admissions open house; never the equivalent of free shipping, or even a get-the-tenth-meal free volume discount card. Fees don't budge - but we keep paying them because in a recession a degree from an impressive school feels like a Monopoly "get out of jail free" card.

It seems that some of us, though, have figured out that a student can go to a community college and then transfer to a big-name school. Same prestigious diploma, same aura, and depending on whether the school is public or private, at either a large or a jumbo extra-large savings.

The fun question, of course, is what this will do to supply and demand: If more students take the two-year option, will four-year schools finally have to lower their prices?

The not-fun question is whether the junior-year transfer process will become the new high-stress experience, as all those community college grads try to muscle their way into four-year schools, but I like the fun question more. I like the idea that at long last a college education is going to end up alongside GM's cars and Italian leather purses and all the houses on my block: Discounted.

Visit www.karenstabiner.com or write to Karen at [e-mail].

 

Comments

[Mnemanth]

Prices don't go down, until consumers stop consuming.
And that's not going to happen.
As long as people keep shelling out the dough, why should the industry change?
Consumers have the advantage...if we were really a cohesive nation. But we're not, and everyone who feeds off of our spending knows it.

[Maya68]

I certainly hope your "fun" question is what gets answered! Primarily for my children who'll be college ready in 5-6 yrs. I've been reading a lot about schooling, education and community/state colleges are a big part of my strategy. After all those degrees, I think what everyone really uses at their jobs are their common sense and personal integrity. Unfortunately the lack of both seems to be the reason why we've reached this situation .... at least common sense seems on its way back!

[arkixuan]

i'm agree with the point to do a 2 year degree before finishing up 4 year degree. that's what i'm doing now. i think have more that one degree on hand is a good thing for everyone because you have more degree that means you have more talents and ability to handle the job. of course, 4 years degree still has more persuasive than 2 year degree.

[jpdhuffpo]

Nice strategy to do a 2 year degree before finishing up 4 year degree.

But I have to ask: do you really believe 4 year colleges will be dropping their prices anytime soon? With returns to human capital only increasing and 2 year colleges unable to fully substitute what 4 year colleges offer (credentialing in the job market), the pressure on 4 year colleges will never be enough to force them to drop prices. (Maybe slow the growth rate a little...but I doubt even that blip will be detectable.) Its just not gonna happen.

If anything, we should expect 4 year collegs to make out like bandits because 2 year and 4 year colleges are complements not substitutes. More 2 year degree holders will create a bigger market demand for 4 year degrees. This is a good thing, but let's not ignore the obvious economics here.

[midwesthousewife]

My daughter's former boyfriend used that strategy. He couldn't see the value of paying private college prices for four years. He enrolled in a community college with the intention of transferring to a 4-year college later. Ironically, his family is one of the wealthiest I know. Other well-off families chose to have their children enroll in the state university, even though their children had acceptances at prestigious name schools. This was before the economic collapse last year. I found it interesting that the wealthy were on to this first==probably because their kids couldn't get scholarship aid and were saddled with paying full freight.

[ccwpmarcus]

I'm a former community college student myself. I went to community college, played some water polo, turned around a rather lackadaisical high school performance and got myself into one of those high ranked engineering programs that high school students are trampling each other for. It went really well for me. Be warned though, for ever 1 person there was like me who got in got out got things done. There were 10 wasting their time, and the class room space not putting in the work that's needed to succeed. A motivated young adult can do really well for themselves, and get an entirely different perspective on learning and education. A young adult not so motivated can flounder in community college limbo for a long time. I got to my nifty university and was exceedingly well prepared to succeed there too.

If I had gone straight to a university full of over achievers (not really an option based on my high school record) I wouldn't have done nearly as well. I had no idea what I wanted to do. None. I think the real shame in the system is pigeonholing 16 and 17 year olds into a 5 or 6 year commitment (including a couple years of work). It's a commitment that they're not ready to make. It's a life decision made before they even learn what they like, before they even learn what it will be like after they graduate. . .

[midwesthousewife]

This is why my husband and I are encouraging all our kids to take a gap year after high school--so they can have a break to do some exploring and get some knowledge of the world before heading off for another 4 years of study. The deal is that the year must be spent traveling, working, trying some new skills and courses. I figure it will cost less than a year of college for us!

[ccwpmarcus]

. . .

For some it works, but for me, and many others it is definitely not what I needed to become successful. Even if the afore mentioned over achiever succeeds and graduates first in his/her class, I'd bet even money that his achievement was done simply for the sake of doing it, and much less because it was driven by passion.

High school kids are all striving to be the best, at anything. It is rare that one is striving to be the best at something specific, particular. It is rare that their achievements are driven by genuine interest in mastering a specific subject instead of mastering whatever subject they decided to study.