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Kathleen Reardon

Kathleen Reardon

Posted: December 16, 2008 08:01 PM

The Caroline Kennedy Trial Balloon


Do you remember when the Republicans floated trial balloons out there to see if we'd shoot them down? They were masters at it. Now that is also a Democratic strategy. They push potentially controversial decisions out into open air to see if the media attacks stick. If they don't, the person or idea is viable.

We had the Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State trial balloon recently. Fortunately for her, most of the visible Hillary haters were worn out. Others just considered it simply too crass or gratuitous to have won and yet to be attacking her still. Mostly, her media enemies were on vacation. So that trial balloon stayed afloat.

I'm not against trial balloons now and then. But when they become a way of doing business, it's manipulative. In persuasion, one of my fields, we study inoculation - essentially introducing the likelihood of some event happening and then providing arguments for or against so people are ready to accept or reject it as preferred. We were inoculated against resisting Caroline Kennedy's desire for Hillary Clinton's senate seat by seeing her support "our guy". Now, as persuasion theory and research indicate, it is uncomfortable to be against her - inconsistent with our support of Barack Obama.

I'm on record as not having been impressed with the way Ted Kennedy threw his support to Barack Obama during the Democratic Party primaries. Kennedy never overtly addressed why he turned his back on the woman who had gotten closest to The White House.

Was Caroline thinking ahead? Was Ted doing the same? Were they positioning Caroline, by supporting Barack Obama, with the visibility she surely would not have gotten by supporting Hillary Clinton? She would have been a woman supporting a woman - a New Yorker supporting a New Yorker. That's not interesting. It doesn't get press attention.

Unlike many who are developing a disdain for Caroline Kennedy, I don't see why she shouldn't throw her hat in the ring. But let's be clear. Politicians know we don't detect most of the clever things they do. Let's at least question whether Caroline saw a chance that has since turned into a real opportunity.

Is that an awful thing? No, it's not. But President-elect Barack Obama got many like me on board by promising more honesty - more transparency. It would be useful to know when Caroline decided she would run and it would be helpful to then determine whether we believe her -- whether she is an exception to the rule on the Hill, as her philanthropy and understated nature suggest, or simply another inner circle victory.



Dr. Reardon also blogs at bardscove.

Do you remember when the Republicans floated trial balloons out there to see if we'd shoot them down? They were masters at it. Now that is also a Democratic strategy. They push potentially controve...
Do you remember when the Republicans floated trial balloons out there to see if we'd shoot them down? They were masters at it. Now that is also a Democratic strategy. They push potentially controve...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
mjc
Avoid printing any..
12:20 PM on 12/20/2008
I'm sure that Ted Kennedy's support of Obama was based primarily on a touch of the "green eye" and what some say was a perceived slight by the Clintons of Ted when Bill Clinton was president. Ted has always had a larger than life ego. The comment that Obama reminded him of JFK was meant to stand him in good stead with Obama and there is no doubt that he saw a winner in Obama. Ms. Reardon may have something in that by supporting Obama Ted could perhaps ensure the "Kennedy name" in the future. If that was the plan, it seems passingly strange that Caroline never appeared prominently in any of the NY state campaigns; in fact, she was described as "too shy". But even stranger is the fact that Caroline apparently didn't even vote in some of the statewide elections, especially the ones that featured Hillary Clinton as the candidate. Think, in spite of the NAME, that she'll find running for office in upstate New York very challenging. She had never been to Syracuse or Rochester until this past week and spent 20 minutes in Syracuse, something sarcastically noted by at least the tv commentators in those cities.
05:44 PM on 12/17/2008
Caroline Schlossberg no more deserves to be in the Senate than I do. Caroline Kennedy will get there because her daddy was president.

Halli Casser-Jayne http://www.thecjpoliticalreport.com
04:56 PM on 12/17/2008
Prepare for a wave of '"LEGACY CANDIDATES". Caroline Kennedy may be only the leading edge of the wave of candidates from famous and powerful families who will be jumping in the political arena.
Young children who aspire to be president may find that their future chances blindsided by a wave of legacy candidates from political "brand name" families.
It's profoundly disturbing that a single telephone call can elevate a fledgling politician with the name "Kennedy" to the top of the field of Senatorial appointees.
The United States has finished eight terrible years under a legacy candidate who has nearly brought the country down to its knees, and we are already faced by the entrance of his brother, Jeb. The "LEGACY CANDIDATES" benefit from the raw political power that their families weild within their respective families.
04:46 PM on 12/17/2008
Please, Please, Please - NO MORE DYNASTIES!!! No more Bushes, no more Clintons, no more Kennedys, no more Bidens, ........ We revolted against England, in part, to eliminate dynastic rule. Don't force us to have to revolt again!
03:56 PM on 12/17/2008
I find this report to be ludicrous. Enough with the conspiracy theories. Ted and Caroline were genuine in their support for Obama and had had issues with HRC in the past. Get over it already.
Go Caroline!
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Rubyfoo
03:47 PM on 12/17/2008
Tempest in a teapot. You're nitpicking, analyzing a breeze when there's a hurricane out there.
03:31 PM on 12/17/2008
Oh, I can't believe this! Will you Hillary people ever stop? Sheesh. Time to get on with your lives. Do something with your anger. Volunteer. Help out in the schools, and help a kid learn how to read or something. Stop stewing and move on.

Ted Kennedy supported Barack Obama because he warned Bill and Hillary to stop the racist attacks on Obama, and they didn't. I believe it was reported that he and Bill had a very heated exchange. Ted then went ahead and supported Obama. I recall that Caroline's support for Obama were independent of her uncle. But they joined forces once it was clear that Hillary would not stop the racist attacks.

If you think I am some young thing. Guess again. I am a 52 year old female attorney.
03:22 PM on 12/17/2008
I find this article to be both speculative (like tabloid journalism), and very cynical. If you have
critiques of why you don't feel Caroline Kennedy would make a good senator, by all means
make your case, but it had better be factual and well reasoned.
03:19 PM on 12/17/2008
Caroline Kenedy could be a great Senetor I am sure, and now Gov. Peterson , who was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton until the end, is in a bit of a pickle, is saying mildly, the mantra is Caroline or else. Absolutely, why not, but for this interim posion , is it not better to chose someone who has run a campaign among the common folks, and won a position ? Another two years is just around the corner, let Caroline run for the office like the rest of them , and win it !
02:56 PM on 12/17/2008
I like the theory that she let John Jr. have the spotlight, then was busy raising a family until just recently. She is probably a quick study who can navigate the Senate well. Let's not fight history and fate...the Kennedys bless their hearts have a penchant for public service, and it is easier to ride a horse in the direction it is going. I sense a fashion line based on Carolinewear coming out soon.
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02:06 PM on 12/17/2008
This really isn't an "I'm just sayin'" supposition. If you bring it to its logical conclusion, you upend the basis on which Caroline would run most successfully at this point, and that's her good character and good word. Accepting Ms. Reardon's premise of Caroline as a coldly calculating angler requires a complete negation of what we do know about her--including every single word of her endorsement of Barack Obama, in her father's name. But Ms. Reardon provides no evidence in support of her suggestion. While raising it may seem legitimate, it's only fair to raise it responsibly, by providing some grounds for its tenability in this case. Otherwise, it feels like an attempt to discredit Caroline by circumstance and asking her to defend herself by proving a negative--that she wasn't thinking about the Senate seat when she endorsed Obama. Those aren't tactics for furthering constructive dialogue.

Re the quiet on the Clinton SoS front, we're keeping our powder dry for the confirmation hearings.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Kathleen Reardon
02:42 PM on 12/17/2008
There is no way I'd propose Caroline is "coldly calculating." Nope, misinterpreted on that. She has my respect and my being still a bit miffed at Ted's method doesn't alter that or my respect for what he has accomplished. In fact, if Caroline did see possibilities sometime back, she is more the astute politician than often credited. And wouldn't that make her more prepared for the Senate? No, I'm simply pointing out, as debaters do, a side to consider. Categorizing me as a former Hillary supporter to be dismissed misses that I could have written an entirely glowing blog for which I'm sure I'd be accused of being an Irish Catholic who can't see past my shared past with the Kennedys. Either way, you get labeled. Either way, your message can be missed.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Al Giordano
03:41 PM on 12/17/2008
If Caroline Kennedy had been interested in Senator Clinton's seat way back in February, wouldn't it have made more sense for her to back Clinton for president to move her up and out?

Who could have anticipated, in February, that a president-elect Obama would have nominated Senator Clinton to be Secretary of State?

The more Machiavellian move for a US Senate aspirant in NY would have been to support Clinton... which is probably why some others that had hoped for that Senate seat - and factored that into their decision to endorse Clinton for president - aren't that happy now. But it is a huge stretch to paint a theory that the Kennedys sat around thinking "well, if we get Barack elected president, and then he appoints Clinton, that's a faster route to a senate vacancy than electing Clinton herself to the White House." It just doesn't add up.
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06:29 PM on 12/17/2008
'There is no way I'd propose Caroline is "coldly calculating." Nope, misinterpreted on that. '

Labels like this are relative to the circumstances and the person. One man's over-the-top tasteless mercenary is another man's lovable Donald Trump. If Caroline Kennedy, whose public persona is the picture of sincerity and rectitude, were as manipulative and unfeeling as you suggest, she'd be worse than "coldly calculating." She'd be a fraud. That's something I won't even consider based on what I consider spurious and groundless speculation on what she might have been thinking several months ago. Further suggesting that if Caroline were in fact this Machiavellian, she'd be "more prepared for the Senate," just confirms my suspicion that you're spinning your wheels in a cynical swamp.

"Categorizing me as a former Hillary supporter to be dismissed misses that I could have written ..."
Straw man arguments aren't improved by switching gender. I neither said nor implied this; the last line of my post went to the musing in the second para of your blog: "We had the Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State trial balloon recently. Fortunately for her, most of the visible Hillary haters were worn out. Others just considered it simply too crass or gratuitous to have won and yet to be attacking her still. Mostly, her media enemies were on vacation. So that trial balloon stayed afloat." I simply provided a very good reason for the lull in that conversation.
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NABNYC
01:20 PM on 12/17/2008
I see this entire focus on Caroline Kennedy as being the typical reaction to a woman who "does not know her place." Women generally are not allowed in our society to be in the top positions. The only exception is for women who are carried by their wealthy and powerful fathers or husbands. To this day, we see most courts have maybe 15-20% women judges despite women being 50% in the profession for 25 years. In the Senate, how many women? Certainly not 50%, and I would say why not.

Women are not supposed to speak well of themselves, put themselves forward for consideration. God forbid they should be strategic (it's so unattractive) or calculating (nice girls don't).

Caroline Kennedy seems better suited for the position than anyone else whose name has been mentioned. She's a constitutional scholar, author, mother, citizen, taxpayer. What's the problem? She also could likely raise money (isn't that the only thing the Democrats really want -- more money). Most of the Democrats in the Senate supported the war in Iraq, and have taken money from Wall Street while doing nothing to help the people of this country. What a thoroughly disreputable crowd we have in the Senate. So to see Caroline held up to a microscope as if she's not good enough just makes me sick.
01:41 PM on 12/17/2008
No, the reaction is that democracy isn't about hereditary senate seats.
12:46 PM on 12/17/2008
Wow, that's quite the theory. Here's why I don't buy it. During the early part of primaries the most likely outcome was a Hillary victory, opening up her senate seat. An Obama victory, conventional wisdom said, would result in Hillary remaining in the senate (remember we all KNEW they didn't like each other). So if Caroline wanted Hillary's seat, she would have thrown her support behind Hillary early to help get her into the White House. Sure supporting a woman and a fellow New Yorker wouldn't have been quite the attention grabber that her support of Obama was, but she's Caroline freaking Kennedy, anything she does publicly is an attention grabber.

In order for your theory to have worked, Caroline would have to have supported Obama secretly hoping he'd lose, but at the same time do well enough to raise her profile, while also counting on there not being any backlash in New York over her backing a losing horse over the local hero. OR Caroline would have had to support Obama hoping he'd win and assuming he'd appoint Hillary to some cabinet spot. Both those scenarios seem far less plausible than the explanation she gave, which is that her kids were raving about Obama and so she went to check him out and found herself thinking he'd make a great president and so she threw her support behind him.
12:25 PM on 12/17/2008
I think you've put waaaay too much thought into this. Sometimes things are exactly (and refreshingly) what they appear on the surface. Capitol Hill is riddled with the sort of machinators you describe, but I think you missed the mark on Ted & Caroline.

If you revisit Caroline's inspiring January 2008 statement announcing her endorsement of Barack Obama, I think you will see that -- unless Caroline is an awfully clever, conniving and manipulative liar, with zero respect for her father's legacy and memory -- she felt genuinely impressed and inspired by Obama's candidacy. And she was very specific on her reasons: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27kennedy.html?_r=2&oref=slogin

It's not only possible, but highly probable that Caroline -- like many Americans -- continues to feel inspired and hopeful for the possiblities inherent through an Obama presidency at this major point of change and crisis. She is certainly not alone in her desire to be part of the solution. What more honorable call could there be to serving one's country?

For the record, the clever, opportunistic, "less transparent" politicians were those who (believing that Obama was the better choice, but knowing jolly well it'd be political suicide to cross the Clintons by endorsing Obama) waited until after the primaries (IF even then) to support Barack Obama. The more principled ones (and Ted Kennedy belongs in this camp) were those who -- no matter what their personal loyalties or professional favors due -- endorsed the candidate of their choice.
02:17 PM on 12/17/2008
Well put! My thoughts exactly. Some Hillary supporters apparently just can't see past her loss.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ElBruce
12:15 PM on 12/17/2008
Yes, everyone who supported Obama in the primaries "turned their back on" Hillary. It's not like anybody would support him because they actually liked him for the Presidency. Plus, they all owe her. Everyone does. No, there must be some other reason, perhaps some strategy, for why they wouldn't prefer Hillary. Nothing else makes sense!

:rolleyes: