How Todd Palin Can Make Millions. Now.

Sarah Palin may be as significant to internet political wagering as anyone since Konrad Zuse, inventor of the modern computer.

"We have never had as many market requests relating to a single politician as we have had related to Sarah Palin," says John Delaney, CEO of Intrade.

Intrade's 50,000 users wager hundreds of millions of dollars per year in "markets" ranging from election outcomes to box office returns. One of the most popular has been whether Palin will be the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

Late today, Delaney announced three new Palin markets. They are listed below along with charts that will enable you to follow trading in real-time.

1. WILL SARAH PALIN HOST HER OWN TV SHOW?*

2. WILL SARAH PALIN ANNOUNCE A RUN FOR PRESIDENT?

3. WILL SARAH PALIN BE INDICTED BY STATE OR FEDERAL AUTHORITIES FOR ANY OFFENCE(S)?

So how should you bet?

If you are Sarah Palin, presumably you have the capability to manipulate these markets. Thus you are barred from trading. If you are a member of Palin's family or inner circle, however, you may play, according to Delaney.

For those of you without the benefit of being Palin intimates, here's advice from renowned horseracing handicapper Ray Paulick, who demonstrated extraordinary aptitude for political wagering in a recent experiment conducted by the Huffington Post:

1. Will Sarah Palin host her own TV show? "Yes," says Paulick. "I'd lay odds of ten cents on the dollar."

2. Will Sarah Palin announce a run for President? "I don't think she will, but I think the odds would favor a run," Paulick says. "Forty cents on the dollar yes, but I'd bet against."

3. Will Sarah Palin be indicted by state or federal authorities for any offence(s)? Paulick: "I'm ambivalent on this one, not really knowing enough about it--although the FBI did say there is no current investigation--but I would think given the depth of the ethics investigations, there is a possibility. I'd make the chances of an indictment 1.80 on the dollar."

Now, no matter what the future holds, Americans can profit from Sarah Palin.

*What the numbers mean: Since "contracts" trade at between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time as the percentage probability of that event occurring. If you believe Gov. Palin will get her own TV show, you would expect that price to go up, towards 100. If you were to buy a contract at $13 and Palin gets a deal with FOX, you would win the difference between your purchase price of $13 and the closing price of $100: $87. More information.

 

 

Follow Keith Thomson on Twitter: www.twitter.com/kqthomson

Comments

[Mark Mack]

What makes you think Todd Palin wants to make millions. He's just a Simple Man, with Simple Dreams. It's his wife that wants the golden ring.

[BruceCarson]

Because we always assume the worst when it comes to conservatives.

[BruceCarson]

Kind of a silly article.

[mitsie]

I would rather take the odds of playing a slot then try to wager on anything Palin does. She probably would quit the gameshow and fire her campaign people before the Primary, then decide she dosen't want to run because it's too stressful you know? As far as getting arrested, boy that's hard to turn down and she's already got it planned to have her Department of Law, look over any future lawsuits if she's President.

[WilliePilgrim]

Gambling on-line is illegal? I don't remember voting for that. But of course, recalling the litany of truisms from my street protest days "if voting could change things, they'd make it illegal".

[BannedInBoston]

Sounds like he's working on it.

[oldgeek1]

If he can make millions time for him to trade in Sarah for a lower mileage model.

Did the House pass that clunker law?

[scooperss]

Is he taking donations for duct tape? If so, I'll donate.

[slowtono]

Poor Democrats they would deny their dog a bone if they weren't allowed one of their own. This is the controversy are we gonna be commies or a market economy, if the first, I want the same pay as congress. NOW! I'll pay them when I get paid. People bet on E-bay, making movies and long shot horses. And fat america wall street know way ahead who's going out tomorrow. As the earlier posts wrote, Todd prefers fishing, and Keith Thompson prefers a sure thing.

[maribelle1963]

How is this legal?

[sufi66]

Bush stealing the presidency was legal. Why would this shock you?

[chriss0114]

not so fast--I'm not sure Todd even knows what "mavericky" move silly Sarah might make next

[jimbeaux1961]

If Todd would stick a shoe in his wife's mouth, I'd chip in a few bucks.

[sufi66]

I'll bet-cha high school grads make more money in Alaska than in other states.

[ZenBastard]

Yeah, all 9 of 'em.....

[sufi66]

You might be on the high side with nine.

[myname]

How Todd Palin can make millions? Ummm....... Easy!

He flies to Argentina. He writes a tell-all book when he comes back.

[Lannie]

Hey, it's a high-stakes version of the The Newlywed Game!

[noneIn2008]

How many American "advisers" died today in Iraq and Afghanistan? Palin is a red herring to distract focus from getting us out of Iraq.

[ruglump]

Palin is a red state herring, and the commodification of incomprehensible fame is as American as a quarterly budget body count. Consider the value of the consuming public's mass-mind as a virtual real estate bubble, with futures brackets in the decisions of life & death, and health & war. The left hemisphere is constantly trying to logic out the reality after the right-hemisphere squanders vast sums of thought in the sub-prime market of speculative schadenfre­ude/idol-w­orship. Unattached to significant principle or effective course, we are all falling behind in our attention payments because of the exorbitant interest rates in these sideshows.

[The Meek]

Nice

[MNinWI]

Pretty clever of you.