U.S. Intelligence -- or the Lack Thereof -- on North Korea

A North Korean Taepodong-2 missile is about the size of six U-Haul vans sitting bumper to bumper. North Korea is smaller than Mississippi. So how is it -- given a skyful of satellites, every other manner of electronic surveillance and legions of human spies -- that we were surprised by North Korea's April 5 Taepodong-2 launch?

At the same time, the lives of Kim Jong Il and his family could be made into a soap opera. How is it that we remain in the dark not only about which of them will succeed Kim, but, at times, whether they are alive or dead?

How is it that we know so little about North Korea?

Research for my novel Once A Spy (Doubleday, 2010) has brought me into contact with an array of intelligence community personnel and experts ranging from a temp to a Director of the CIA. I asked several with relevant experience: What's the problem with intelligence collection in North Korea? And what, if anything, is being done about it? Taepodong-2s currently are capable of reaching the United States. Granted, they are the Edsels of ballistic missiles. But the North Koreans (a) are working out the kinks, if this week's nuclear tests are any evidence, and (b) might sell the technology to all comers.

The primary obstacle to collecting intelligence on North Korea, I learned, has been the country's singularly insular nature. As has been well-documented, practically no civilians have telephones, let alone access to e-mail. A glance at a nighttime satellite imagery may best sum up the situation: "You see South Korea all lit up; the North is completely dark," says an expert on the region (not the temp*).

And even if we were to airdrop BlackBerrys to all North Koreans, it's doubtful that we would learn much, the latest escapades of Kim's personal troupe of strippers notwithstanding. "Gossiping can get people shot," said the expert.

The bottom line, according to an intelligence analyst:

Lack of sources in a highly dangerous, ethnically defined, ruthlessly guarded area. We tend to rely on third parties for access to such areas. Look at how hard the National Clandestine Service is trying to reinvent itself to deal with the realities of Iraq and Afghanistan, away from the consular cocktail party environment of the cold war.

A case officer adds:

We don't have any decent agents [North Korean nationals recruited by American intelligence officers]. It's simply too risky to communicate with them. And it's not that North Korean counterintelligence is especially good, it's that the society is so closed that information is strictly compartmented and there are very few opportunities to recruit penetration agents or for defectors to defect. To know what's going on in North Korea you have to penetrate at high levels of government, and to know plans and intentions you need to be in Kim's office. We don't have an embassy or other secure facility to work out of. We're more or less limited to legal traveler operations where we brief people before they go in and debrief them when they return.

I also spoke to former CIA operations officer Ishmael Jones (a pseudonym). In his memoir The Human Factor: Inside the CIA's Dysfunctional Intelligence Culture (Encounter, 2008), Jones writes:

After President Bush gave his 'Axis of Evil' speech, the Agency began sending my colleagues on missions to these and other rogue states. They didn't conduct any intelligence operations there -- just visited, stayed in hotels and returned to write detailed after-action reports about their itineraries...This became known around HQs as Axis of Evil Tourism.

While recognizing that "the new administration and the CIA get a pass for the incidents in recent days because North Korea is such a difficult place to operate," Jones faults the agency historically: "North Korea is our oldest and most obvious intelligence target," he told me. "We've known it for sixty years. To get at the target, we had millions of South Koreans who spoke the language and had relatives in North Korea. Even using our antiquated embassy structure, we should have been able to establish intelligence networks. More than ninety percent of [CIA] employees live in the United States. We need to get more of them abroad, closer to the targets."

In the interim, what about all of our satellites and drones? (The Musudan-ri test facility reportedly is watched more closely than the ball in Times Square on New Year's Eve, and, for what it's worth, the Taepodong-2 was photographed during the preparation for its April 5 launch).

"Eyes in the sky can't tell us everything we need to know," says the case officer. "[The North Koreans] could be moving empty tubes around for all the eye can tell."

Accordingly, the bulk of U.S. intelligence on North Korea, what there is of it, comes from our liaison counterparts in South Korea, Japan and China.

"The South Koreans [Agency for National Security Planning] have an ear to the ground and an ability to penetrate that the others don't," the regional expert says. Adds the case officer, "But they have the same problems we have. Japan doesn't have a foreign intel service -- unbelievable but true. They use a branch of the National Police, which is now very good." On the North Korean case, however, "basically all they do is liaise with other intel services."

And China? The Ministry of State Security plays it close to the vest. "The Chinese may pay lip service to UN attempts to get North Korea to drop its nuclear program, but they won't do anything concrete about it," the case officer says. "China isn't a target and it gets some pleasure from the fears the rest of the region displays over North Korea's aggressive behavior."

So what do we do?

Logic dictates that the threat of being turned to powder will deter North Korea from launching a Taepodong-2 at the United States. The problem is that logic may have no role in Kim's planning -- it's debatable whether "Dear Leader" is crazy like a fox or garden-variety certifiable. In either case, the threat remains that he'll sell nuclear material -- or even a plug-and-play atomic bomb -- to Al Qaeda.

So our dealings with North Korea have become analogous to a hostage situation -- think Kim wearing a vest packed with high explosive in a crowded shopping mall, his finger on the button. Our diplomats negotiate with him. Meanwhile our intelligence agencies scramble behind his back for ways to neutralize the threat.

Myriad plans for removing him from power have been and continue to be explored. The fresh regime-changing wounds from Iraq dim even staunch advocates' enthusiasm, however. And then there's the youngest of Kim's three sons, Kim Jong Un, the odds-on favorite to assume the top spot in Pyongyang: He may cause us to look back fondly on the devil we knew.

As a result, continued isolation of North Korea is regarded as the best tactic for now, the goal being containment. In the worst-case scenario, should Kim Jong Il push the button, the hope is that America need not respond unilaterally -- after all, others have more chips on the table.

The greater hope is that the CIA or DIA or NSA or SEALs have some other, innovative operation underway -- an operation about which a novelist has no need to know -- that will yield a better outcome.

*I prefer not to use anonymous sources, but this post would consist of little more than questions and conjecture otherwise. One source at least publicly uses a pseudonym.

Poster Intel:

"When provoking a war of aggression, we will hit back, beginning with the US!"

"Though the dog barks, the procession moves on!"

from: North Korean Posters: the David Heather Collection

Comments

[IWantTofu]

Maybe to deal with the N. Korean threat, the U.S. could get Korean Americans, who happen to have relatives in S. Korea, who happen to have relatives in N. Korea to start working on gaining information. To paraphrase Judge Sotomayor, maybe Americans of Korean decent may be able to come up with a better approach than a white male whose only contact with Asian culture is dropping off his laundry at the dry cleaners. Pop quiz, name a high level Asian in the State Department?

And on this point, lets also get Arab Americans more involved with issues related to the Arab world.

[SimJack]

Maybe it has something to do with the last administration's preoccupation with rigging the system to do exactly what they did, make a mockery of the Bill of Rights and US Constitution, loot the treasury, continue the separation of the classes, devastate the environment in favor of their business associates and destroy tens of thousands of families here and abroad brought about by an illegal war. If North Korea had any money or oil, we'd have known about it, therefore it wasn't a priority, nuclear weapons or not.

[PDH5204]

Keith, this is an old problem. Had the same problem during the Korean War and during the Vietnam War. For the reasons stated by the sources in your piece, there is no real answer here. All we can do is assume and prepare for the worst. Otherwise reminds of a story appearing in the work, Arab and Jew: Wounded Spirits In A Promised Land, wherein a Syrian officer is taken prisoner and then driven around Israel. He cries, when finally realizing that most of what he had been taught to believe about Israel was a lie. But until that moment of truth, well, same as in North Korea, and so even if the poor dirt farmer was told that something better awaits as his fate, he won't believe it, and he'll turn you in to the authorities as soon as circumstances permit. And since the dialect of Korean is not the same in the North as the South, even rather hard for the South Koreans to infiltrate the country, as their speech will give them away.

[jqcitizen]

It would be good to hear from the former head of the CIA. former V. President and former President, GHW Bush, as to weather or not he truly believes that the 'Scud' missile was designed/developed by Saddam Hussein.

I recall during the 1st Gulf War, when Cheney was Sec. Defense, a boatload of 'Scuds' was intercepted, from North Korea, entering the Gulf.

Of course, it was that 'wonderful (?)' Patriot Missile system that saved us all from Saddams 'Scuds'.

The success of those 'Patriots' was a lie. - Just ask the CIA, just keep in mind that CIA personnel are trained to deceive. That is what good spies get paid to do.

[JohnHKennedy]

Sad that the CIA could not stop 9-11. But they do want to spy on Americans. Has the CIA become a rogue agency? They apparently lie to our Presidents about national security issues.

SIGN THE PETITION To Prosecute Them For Torture
AT ANGRYVOTERS dot ORG

http://ANGRYVOTERS.ORG

Over 250,000 have signed
Join them and call yourself a Patriot

[texanna]

Maybe if the CIA weren't so involved in CYA with respect to criminal activities over the last 8 years, they could focus on what they were created to do - be a FOREIGN intelligence service.

[GardenerNorCal]

Didn't Bush remove them from the axis of evil?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article4218320.ece

Didn't Bush make us safer?

[Agent420]

What makes you think that we were surprised by anything NK does?

[lucyring]

If we'd known what was coming we (or Japan or South Korea ) would have responded much differently, with additional deterrents at least.

[youknow]

So if North Korea is possibly willing to sell Nukes to Al Qaeda, why can we not drum up spies to act as Al Qaeda and try to obtain such devises? Just a thought for the CIA.

[oldgeek1]

The GOP at the drop of a hat has claimed that President Obama is making us less safe. On President Bush and Cheney's watch North Korea has joined the Nuclear Club and Iran is getting close, HOW DID THIS HAPPEN.

We failed to work with China and the world community, diverted by an Invasion in Iraq under several false pretenses, while a major threat to the world was allowed to develop.

It is indisputable that Korea has become a Nuclear power, is developing advanced missiles and the chest pounding bravado about Iraq and 911, coming unglued in terms of keeping the US safe.

The Republicans proved to be ineffective and in the process has left the US less safe. All the talk by the likes of Rush, Cheney, and Rove cannot change what is now a fact, a world less safe then when they took control. They can try and trash President Obama and the Democrats all they want but the their legacy and the huge problems the US now faces on every front, undeniable. I hope all the people who were focused on Mexican immigration and the other trivial matters are proud of themselves for taking their eye off the ball.

[TheMadHedgeFundTrader]

With North Korea testing low grade nukes and short range missiles (think WWII German V2’s), and a former prime minister jumping off a cliff to commit suicide, you wouldn’t think this is the best time to contemplate an investment in South Korea. You may recall that I recommended that the Hermit Kingdom be added to spell “BRICK” with a “K” last January (http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/January_5__2009.html) .
Korea is in fact somewhere in between a true emerging market and a developed country, with lower risk and lower returns, than say a Taiwan or an India. Let’s see how that call faired. After hitting a low of 998 in March, it soared 45% to a seven month high. The recent troubles have pared it back by 10%. For long term investors, this is opening a rare window to scale into some exposure here. Short term traders should wait for a bigger pull back. They used to say you bought Asia only when there was blood in the streets. This isn’t really blood, but is close enough.
www.madhedgefundtrader.com

[Ilene2theRight]

To read "The Human Factor" by Ishmael Jones is to understand the systemic changes required in order to bring our intelligence collection capability up to snuff.

Yesterday Leon Panetta announced that twice as many CIA officers would be receiving foreign language instruction (https://www.cia.gov/news-information/press-releases-statements/foreign-language-capability.html). That's certainly a good start.

[zell]

I have read that North Korea has missile technology that the Western countries are not familiar with. Since North Korea has such a lack of basic resources, this is hard to believe. I wonder if it is true.

[JimRinX]

Necessity is the mother of all invention - and the Koreans, Northern or Southern, are NOT a stupid people!
We should be glad for the one item they didn't mention, in that 'eye in the sky' bit; Synthetic Appeture Radar. That little trick can peer DEEP underground (which you may have seen in Nat Geos Items on Archeological sites that are UNDER the Arabian or Saharan sands; they were found with this Tech), it can detect what many - but not all - things are made of, and it can image Millimeter scale details of what it is observing.
Thus; I'm calling you guys on that one; North Korea COULD NOT move around "empty tubes" without us knowing about it. SAR has leant a whole new, but little appreciated, meaning to the concept of the "eye in the sky"!!!

[Agent420]

Synthetic Aperture Radar CANNOT see 'deep' underground. It is not the aperature, but the frequency that matters.

[billw8017]

At the start of the first gulf war, the msm was saying Iraq had an army of 4 million troops, a million of them stationed in Kuwait. According to Newsweek, ABC television news bought satellite photos of Kuwait from the Russians. When these showed that Iraq had largely pulled out of Kuwait, ABC decided just to eat them.

[Balzac]

Time may solve the problem. Strong leaders like Fidel are replaced by less powerful leaders, such as Raul. Raul is going to be more diplomatic and less authoritarian, so that leads to a peaceful change of power in the case of Cuba. I hope Cuba doesn't get a McDonalds, Starbucks and Walmart after Fidel dies. I hope Raul and his successors can prevent such a travesty.

I would prefer to visit North Korea rather than South Korea because I think I would enjoy it more. I hope North Korea is not ravaged by western brands. I hope for a phased Korean re-unification in coming decades.

Believe it or not, countries like North Korea and Cuba have something to teach other nations. How to preserve your country from the obscenities and ravages of mega-corporate brands.

I know Coca Cola and others want to do to North Korea what they've done in Russia. Let's stop these @ssholes, or else we'll have no place in the world to escape their logos and their rot-gut sodas.

[learneddemocrat]

Sorry, but my thought after reading your blog, is perhaps you should live in a place that does not have these corporations, like Cuba or N. Korea. Yep, go live there, and be free and happy. Ooops, I mean be happy. Yep, go escape their logos and soda. How naive (hopefully not ignorant) can you be? Do you think these companies just barge into other countries and set up business? You don't think they are invited into the countries?

Remember, as you are condeming these corporations, they have employees. Are they perfect, nope, but because of them thousands of people have jobs. Or doesn't that matter to you?

[unitron]

"Strong leaders like Fidel are replaced by less powerful leaders, such as Raul. "

And, unfortunately, in North Korea, crazy dictators are replaced by their even crazier sons and grandsons.

[warlover]

U.S. intelligence used to be a board and a gallon of water, now its sugarless cookies.

[IWantTofu]

Which surprisingly worked better.