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Keli Goff

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Landmark Poll Challenges Long-Held Assumptions About President's Lock On The Black Vote

Posted: 07/09/2012 12:05 am

There wasn't a great deal of news to celebrate when the latest jobs numbers were released just after the 4th of July holiday, but for African-Americans the news was particularly grim. While overall unemployment continues to hover around 8.2 percent, among African-Americans the number increased from an already discouraging 13.6 percent in May, to an alarming 14.4 percent. These numbers are not only cause for concern for those Americans currently out of work, but for the White House. No incumbent president has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent.

While the Obama administration has some time before the November election, it does not have much, particularly in terms of black Americans, which presents a potential landmine for the Obama campaign. Black voters were crucial to President Obama's election in 2008, with black women representing the highest turnout of any demographic for the first time in history. Black voters made the difference in key swing states like North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Indiana. Now a landmark coalition of black civic, entertainment and media organizations are partnering on a poll to examine the impact of the current economic climate, and other hot button issues, on likely minority voter turnout.

Led for the second year by Loop21.com, one of the fastest growing minority digital outlets in the country, the coalition seeks to engage its membership and grassroots networks in mounting one of the largest national surveys ever to poll the political attitudes and engagement of black Americans. The State of the Black Economy (SOBE) survey will be distributed by a coalition that includes:

HuffPost BlackVoices
NewsOne
LA Urban League Young Professionals
National Bar Association
National Black Law Students Association
National Black MBA - NY Chapter
National Black MBA - Dallas Chapter
National Black MBA - Miami Chapter
National Action Network
Rising Affluent
Young Professionals United for Change
The Boss Network
Unity Journalists
Women in Entertainment Empowerment Network
AMighty River

The survey will go live Monday, July 9, 2012 and conclude Friday, July 27, with early results available Monday, August 6, and final results available to the public Wednesday, August 8. The research will be helmed by former Gallup pollster David C. Wilson, Ph.D. The poll was conceived by Loop21 publisher, and nationally recognized economist, Darrell Williams, Ph.D. after growing frustration with the underrepresentation of minorities in traditional polling samples. "In our multicultural society, we should evaluate the strength of the U.S. economy based on the economic well being of all its citizens not just some," Williams said. "But we can only do that if we fully engage all Americans in research efforts, and that often isn't done in polling and we hope to change that."

For more information on taking or distributing the SOBE Survey please check it out here.

 
 
 

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There wasn't a great deal of news to celebrate when the latest jobs numbers were released just after the 4th of July holiday, but for African-Americans the news was particularly grim. While overall un...
There wasn't a great deal of news to celebrate when the latest jobs numbers were released just after the 4th of July holiday, but for African-Americans the news was particularly grim. While overall un...
 
 
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This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:36 AM on 07/11/2012
Hooray! We will have news in a month! I wish I hadn't wasted time reading this!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MissTake1989
Equal means equal, hypocrites.
07:06 AM on 07/10/2012
Isn't it kind of odd to pre-announce a survey that is active?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jsgaetano
Legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus
09:04 PM on 07/09/2012
Not even Goopers are willing to vote for Romney. It's hilarious how conservatives keep thinking dissatisfaction with ConservaDems could somehow magically translate into votes for them. America doesn't want conservatives, that's why conservatives have lost every Federal level election since 2005.
02:36 PM on 07/10/2012
2005 is not that long ago. They did retake the house in 2010.
08:10 PM on 07/09/2012
Unfortunately president Obama is able to address other issues like gay marriage and illegal immigration without much consequence, but if he where to address any issues concerning the black community white people would freak out and use it against him in November. There is still so much hate and so many racists in this country, and they especially hate black people, they like to flasely blame every wrong in this country on them
02:38 PM on 07/10/2012
If there was so much hate, Obama would have never been elected. Obama got more whites votes than Kerry. Think before you write.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
myth1958
reasonable, except when I'm not
03:33 PM on 07/09/2012
Keli Goff is pessimistic about President Obama's chances, but needn't be. Her polling data - however strong - is but a glance at the voters who'll be showing up come November. Obama can still count on the vast majority of Black votes, and Gay votes, and Hispanic votes, and a proper share of White votes as well. Why? Because he's the finest president we've seen in our lifetime, and possibly the best ever. He merely rescued the American auto industry, a chunk of banking and the political commentator field whilst being held back at every turn by rabid ideologues (of the Republican stripe) each step of the way. He's closed down one war and nearly concluded the second he inherited - and helped the Libyan people overthrow a vicious dictator in his spare time. The Health Care reform he bulled through a reluctant Congress just withstood the Supreme Court (unbelievable!), and he's got Michelle as perhaps the most educated First Lady in history. Romney? He's awaiting some Jeopardy show of the future: "Who was defeated by Barak Obama for his second term?"
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MissTake1989
Equal means equal, hypocrites.
07:07 AM on 07/10/2012
Obama is a pathetic disappointment compared to Clinton...the finest president in my lifetime....by default.
02:39 PM on 07/10/2012
Boy, you think Obama is god!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
myth1958
reasonable, except when I'm not
06:06 PM on 07/10/2012
With ten Presidents in my lifetime so far, I have an opinion. This one is the best.
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ladydragon
Never attribute to Malice that which can easily be
03:30 PM on 07/09/2012
I don' care how PISSED people get with Persident Obama, that anger in NOT going to turn into a vote for RobMe!!
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RUKidding0
Freedom is Fundamental
05:04 PM on 07/09/2012
How magnanimous of you to speak for the people.

Oh, ... wait ... you don't speak for me!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jsgaetano
Legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus
09:04 PM on 07/09/2012
Conservatives have lost every federal level election since 2005. The facts speak for themselves.
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ladydragon
Never attribute to Malice that which can easily be
09:56 AM on 07/10/2012
RU, you're free to vote for Santorum or Gingrich, or RobMe!! I re-read my post, I don't see your name on there anywhere. Have a nice day.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MissTake1989
Equal means equal, hypocrites.
07:08 AM on 07/10/2012
Obama is the most beatable incumbent I have ever seen (too young to remember Carter) and yet Romney is worse.

Talk about lucky.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
NYs9thwonder
One Smart Cookie
03:03 PM on 07/09/2012
I am not surprised by this. Obama has told the black caucus to stop complaining when they press issues affecting African Americans. Not to mention he has addressed every issue but the black one in his presidency. Then he goes to expect loyalty from African Americans in the polls in the face of all of this?
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Cakey4814
LuvBlogger
02:58 PM on 07/09/2012
Wait a minute...the poll hasn't been done yet so what's with the title of "landmark poll challenges long-held assumptions about President's lock on the Black vote"? So now HPAOL is going to use their Black contributors to predict doom and gloom for the Obama administration?
02:42 PM on 07/09/2012
One question: How many African-Americans will actually get to vote in the election of 2012?

Voter ID laws in a number of states are targeting African-Americans. Even with a so-called Voter ID card, local officials have the freedom to declare any person's ID as invalid. So this year a lot of African-Americans may be denied their constitutionally-guaranteed right to vote.

The GOP wants to eliminate all Civil Rights laws, including the Voters' Right Act of 1965. The Voter ID is just a thinly-disguised version of the Poll tax.

As a white guy, I certainly will not vote GOP simply because I don't want to go back to the bad old days. African-Americans need to recognize that if the GOP wins, they will lose everything.
02:40 PM on 07/10/2012
Stop watching so much MSNBC.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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02:30 PM on 07/09/2012
14.4% ? LOL yeah, he'll get LOTS of their votes. (NOT)
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
01:55 PM on 07/09/2012
Ms Goth, as long as Mitt Romney keeps on his W Revival tour, there is no option for voters.
Support President Obama in his re-election, or accept an American Caste system.
Nothing Mitt Romney has embraced would improve the plight of the unemployed, minorities or the poor.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
hjo4
Don't make your problems mine
01:19 PM on 07/09/2012
but for the White House. No incumbent president has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent.]

We never had a self admitted American Black POTUS and Congress who did all they could to thwart economic growth in our country because they want to "Make Obama a One Term President" even if it means destroying America.That makes a huge difference and Americans are aware of this. It's telling when some folks think their power will erode they will sink to all lengths to keep it. This is what this about one segment of Americans believe if this President succeed they will no have the power and use the age old tools they've used to keep it. I don't believe the American people are stupid enough to fall for the GOP/Tea Bagger/Conservative shenanigans. Not any POTUS can sign a Jobs Bilk that Congress does not pass and send to him. The ball is and remains in Congress court, not President Obama. SOH Boehner where is the JOBS,JOBS, JOBS Bill that he promised to the American people back in 2010. We're still waiting....
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TggerJen
Protect at snowleopard.org
10:33 PM on 07/09/2012
The Repub-controlled House has passed more than 30 jobs bills that the Dem-controlled Senate has refused to take up, debate, and hold votes on. Boehner is being thwarted by the Dems the same way the Dems are being thwarted by the Repubs. The ball is just as much waiting on the Dems in the Senate as on the Repubs in the House. They're two sides of the same coin and voting for incumbents will get us more of the same.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
hjo4
Don't make your problems mine
12:37 AM on 07/10/2012
The Repub-controlled House has passed more than 30 jobs bills that the
Dem-controlled Senate has refused to take up, debate, and hold votes on.---

Because those Bills had amendments to deny women the Right of choice and to end abortion.If Speaker Boehner wanted to pass a JOBS  Bill he could have his members vote on a CLEAN JOBS Bills that the Senate would pass tomorrow and President Obama would sign the next day. Your attempt wasn't a nice try or attempt SOH John Boehner the most Failed Speaker of the House in American history is also a liar. Just like presumed GOP/Tea Bagger Presidential nominee Flip-Flop Mitt Romney. Care to try again.
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Fooly-Cooly
Those...eyebrows...
11:08 AM on 07/09/2012
The SOBE Poll is a complete SHAM!

You can take the poll over and over again; and so, since question #12 reads as follows:

12. Of the following, how much is each to blame for the current US economic crisis?
Mostly Responsible Somewhat Responsible Not Responsible
President Obama

President Bush

Congress

Wall Street

It's very obvious who is the driving force behind these questions.
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TggerJen
Protect at snowleopard.org
10:34 PM on 07/09/2012
They need to add "All of the Above".
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
BiggpussJr
pissin em off one comment at a time.
10:44 AM on 07/09/2012
While overall unemployment continues to hover around 8.2 percent, among African-Americans the number increased from an already discouraging 13.6 percent in May, to an alarming 14.4 percent

Yet the countries first "Black President" has spit in our face by giving ILLEGAL 16-30 year olds the ability to TAKE the few jobs that are out there. Making Black unemployment even worse. What is the difference between Obama and Romney? Well one thing we now KNOW for sure is that Obama can care less about us.
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TggerJen
Protect at snowleopard.org
10:42 PM on 07/09/2012
Obama isn't the only Dem doing damage either. Recently the D.C. council voted to cut services for poor Americans so they could fund free health insurance for illegal aliens instead.
"D.C. Council member Catania comes up with $20M for health coverage for illegal immigrants.... But the council would be restoring the health insurance program at the same time it is scaling back other government services, including millions in services for the poor…."  http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/dc-council-member-catania-comes-up-with-20m-for-health-coverage-for-illegal-immigrants/2012/05/03/gIQAkUdezT_story.html

All the freebies and jobs that Obama and the Dems are serving up to the foreign nationals here illegally are coming right out of the services and jobs that should be going to the middle class, working poor, and poor people. It's not the rich who are paying the price for all the jobs, college tuition breaks, public school funding siphoned off, and the rest. The huge costs, including substantial opportunity costs in addition to direct financial costs, fall squarely on the 99% (and disproportionately on the poor and minorities) - we're paying the bills for Dem politicians to pander to a special interest group made up mostly of foreign nationals here illegally.
02:41 PM on 07/10/2012
Amen
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AA2011
You get the government you deserve.
09:00 AM on 07/09/2012
For the President, its all about turn out in the African American communities. African Americans will vote for this President not just because he is Black, but because they believe in his agenda and they understand the vioces of hate and obstructionsim in Congress, hellbent in making sure he's a one-term President despite all his efforts in trying to turn this economy around. This is a President that tries very hard to be a President for all and has tried very hard to make sure that his policies are for all Americans, believing that " A rising Tide Lifts all Boats" regardless of color, or creed. Unemployment has always been high in the African American community, but most of us also understand that, "By the time the white community gest an economic cold, African American communities are already suffering from Pneumonia" Yes, there will be some misguided African Americans who will vote for Romney. But for those African Americans who do show up to vote in November, I'm confident that 93% to 97% of them will vote for the President.
02:43 PM on 07/10/2012
What you are saying is that blacks don't think for themselves.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
AA2011
You get the government you deserve.
06:14 PM on 07/10/2012
Obviously you will like to interpret my posting to fit your narrative and you failed to read the part that said, "African Americans will vote for this President, not just because he is African American.........." But beyond that, until Republicans change their attitude and rhetoric about Black people, and desist from wanting to roll back all the social equality gains, African Americans have fought for in the country, they will never vote for Republicans en mass. That has nothing to do with thinking for yourself, it has more to do with shared experience and shared status in this country. I'm a first generation African American and I've been in this country more than 30 years, and I've observed how African Americans have been denigrated, stereotyped, and treated in this country. Just like" whites" together because of shared experience and shared culture, why should you expect different for African Americans.